Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse

Roto Rush: Any Hope for Mets' Power?

Tom Herrera — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 13:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Injury Report, MLB Locking Your Lineup, MLB Yard Work

Poppin' out the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.

There I am. Bottom of the 10th inning. Promenade section of Citi Field.

With my hands swollen from furious applause throughout the night and my legs bobbing to stay warm, Fernando Martinez laced a hit to right field. We came alive once more, while the old man sitting next to me grumbled: "Another friggin single? Pelfrey's the only one who drove somethin'."

Sixteen hits and pitcher Mike Pelfrey was the Met with pop.

In our fantasy cram session podcast last week, we discussed the startling differences between Yankee Stadium and the cavernous Citi Field, as well as the notion of trading David Wright. None of us expected that Derek Jeter would have twice as many home runs as Wright at this point.

It's not that Wright and Carlos Beltran aren't having great fantasy seasons. Wright is on his way to top 30 stolen bases, and they're both hitting above .340 with over 30 RBI and runs. But I'd be very surprised if either star came close to the 30-homer plateau. And chances are you drafted Wright to hit jacks as well as burn up the base paths.

If you can make do without the power production, by all means keep Wright. But consider Mark Reynolds is actually having a better year across the board aside from batting average, and I'm sure you can envision a deal where you'd get back both Reynolds and another top-notch player.

The Afflicted: We're going swap orders for this edition because the Carlos Quentin update is pretty significant. Quentin, who's been on the DL with plantar fasciitis, is not expected back until after the All-Star break. It's actually a torn tendon. And whenever he comes back, there's no guarantee we're going to see the same slugger. It's time to consider a long-term solution if you've just been using a fill-in. Buying low on an outfielder like Magglio Ordonez or Corey Hart is an option.

In other injury news, Rich Harden (back strain) returns from the DL this weekend to face the Twins. Paul Konerko aggravated a thumb injury but it looks like he'll play Friday. Jacoby Ellsbury (bruised shoulder) is likely out Thursday for a series finale with the Yankees. Anthony Reyes will undergo an ulnar nerve transposition and is out for the season. Brandon Webb (shoulder strain) is hoping to throw a bullpen session next week. Buy low on Webb.

Bits from the Box Scores:
o. Jose Guillen has three home runs already this month. He's not going to give you a high RBI count, but you could do much worse if you're looking for a Quentin replacement from the wire. Don't sleep on Angels outfielder Juan Rivera either. In his past 32 games, Rivera's driven in 21 runs with five homers and an average over .310.

o. Mark Teixeira continues to be flat-out ridiculous. Yep, it sure is sweet hitting in front of A-Rod. He should come close to numbers from his stellar 2005 season.

o. If Garrett Atkins isn't the ultimate buy-low, I don't know who is. He's ridden the bench two straight games while Ian Stewart starts at third base. A trade is an inevitability and Atkins will bounce back, whether it's in Colorado or elsewhere.

o. I think a big second half is coming for Colby Rasmus. He's just starting to find his power stroke, batting .452 this month with six doubles and two homers. Rick Ankiel is on the rise as well, now that he's settled in following injury.

o. Ryan Madson, replacing injured closer Brad Lidge, nailed down his third save of the season. He's still available in over half of mixed leagues.

o. Jose Lopez has hit three out of the park over his last three games, and he's sporting a .333 average for June. Expect the surge to continue. He's out there on a lot of waiver wires.

o. Jay Bruce blasted his 15th home run for the Reds, yet he only has 32 RBI. Bruce is batting a woeful .176 with runners in scoring position.

o. If someone is snoozing while Geovany Soto's bat awakens, time to make a move. Two homers for him in June and more to come. Stephen Drew is also on the rebound this month: .389 average with four multi-hit games.

o. Don't worry about Francisco Cordero's blown save. It's his first since July 21 of last season. One-game hiccup.

o. Carl Pavano gave up nine earned runs for the second time this season. Unfortunately, I was one of the owners who took a chance on a spot start, then I broke up with him like Alyssa Milano did. Prior to getting obliterated by the Royals, he had won six of his last eight starts with an ERA under 4.00 in that span.

o. Ben Zobrist is the truth. Another multi-hit game with three runs and a stolen base. I can't fathom why a potential 25-15 infielder who qualifies at three positions isn't owned in every single league.

o. Go to whoever owns John Lackey in your league -- likely a very scared owner after his nine-run disaster -- and try to rob him/her blind. Interleague is coming up and he's been streaky in the past. Recall that he had two months of ugly ERAs last season -- a 6.06 in July and an 8.14 in September.

o. Very rough debut for Pirates pitcher Charlie Morton, but it's no fault of his own. Morton threw a scoreless first inning before tightness in his right hamstring knocked him out. I still like him in NL-only leagues if his hamstring is OK. His teammate Jason Jaramillo keeps driving in runs -- nine RBI in June.

Down on the Farm: Things are going so well for Giants catching prospect Buster Posey it's only a matter of time before he makes the jump to Double-A. He blasted 10 homers with 44 RBI, and the sharp plate discipline to match. It should be fun to see who hits the majors first between Posey and Cleveland's Carlos Santana.

Friday's Ace in the Hole: I really like Oakland rookie Vin Mazzaro (2-0. 0.00 ERA) in interleague play vs. San Francisco. Click here to read Knox's take for more on Mazzaro's fantasy prospects. Randy Wells (0-2, 1.86 ERA) gets the Twins at home and should stick in the rotation despite Harden's return.

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Roto Rush: Any Hope for Mets' Power? originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 11 Jun 2009 13:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Roto Rush: The Rebirth of Rickie Weeks

Tom Herrera — Thu, 14 May 2009 13:45:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Injury Report, MLB New Studs, MLB Yard Work

Poppin' out the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.

Remember when Rickie Weeks was a hot new prospect whose quick bat drew comparisons to Gary Sheffield? Yeah, turns out that was four years ago.

Following season after season of frustration for hopeful fantasy owners, Weeks is finally coming through. The speed isn't there, but he's homered in three straight games to give him nine total in only 140 at-bats. By comparison, he only hit 14 in 475 at-bats last year. So has our man-crush of yesteryear suddenly transformed into the new Dan Uggla, or is this impressive power display just another tease?

One stat that immediately jumps out as an outlier is a 19.6 percent home run per fly ball rate (HR/F). Over his past three seasons, Weeks has never topped 13.2 percent and his career average is 12.5 percent. His added power is further evidenced by his .257 Isolated Power (ISO) -- his highest mark yet by far. He's also flexed an ability to take right-handed pitchers the other way. Still, Weeks has gone on tears before (nine in September 2007), so he could come up shy of 30 homers at the end of the line.

All things considered -- added muscle, working with hitting coach Dale Sveum, and healthy wrists for once -- this isn't completely unexpected. He was a great low-risk, high-reward pick this year, just one that's burned us a few times. Sure, his strikeouts are piling up as usual and the batting average will slip here and there. But no one can deny the resurgence of Rickie Weeks. He's a top-10 second baseman and should be valued as such.

Bits From the Box Scores:
o. Emilio Bonifacio is coming back to life, coincidentally since Chris Coghlan was added to the lineup. Bonifacio isn't a bad buy-low considering his value took a steep dive, and Coghlan has major speed so he shouldn't be overlooked.

o. Cliff Lee has only surrendered seven earned runs over his last six starts. He gave up seven alone in his season opener at Arlington. No matter how brutal one start looks, a great string can quickly make it disappear.

o. With Carlos Delgado possibly DL-bound because of an injured right hip, Fernando Tatis is getting some action ... and producing. He hit a grand slam against the Braves and could be a cheap source of temporary power.

o. Jordan Schafer is up to 44 strikeouts and only has three RBI. If this continues into June, the Braves will have to figure out a way to give him a break.

o. Don't sleep on Nick Johnson. The underrated corner collected another four hits to close out a series with San Fran and has 14 RBI in May. Along the same lines, catcher-eligible Pablo Sandoval remained hot to knock in his ninth run this month.

o. I'm very interested to see how long Jimmy Rollins sticks in the fifth spot after Charlie Manuel decided to shake things up. Rollins hit his second homer of the year against the Dodgers.

o. Jason Barlett has already matched his career high for homers, hitting his fifth at Baltimore. He also stole a base for the third straight game. With a line of .369-5-14-21-9, he's a surprising must-start middle until he cools off.

o. Nice of you to show up for the party, Geovany Soto. It's time for you to bring more from where that two-run homer came from. That thing you're holding is a baseball boomstick.

o. Chris Young can't be trusted in your rotation. I'd say we've seen enough. If you've got a deep bench, hold on to him until he hopefully remembers how to stop walking batters. If it's a shallow league, dump him.

o. Take note of Troy Percival's four-run implosion and the subsequent save from J.P. Howell. It was just one rough game for Percival, but Howell should be on your radar. This is a 39-year-old closer we're talking about.

o. You knew good things from someone like Scott Richmond couldn't last forever. April's fantasy hurler darling has given up 10 runs over his last two starts. He lasted 1 2/3 innings against the Yankees on Wednesday.

o. Adrian Beltre is finally hitting for power -- two homers in his last four games. The nifty buy-low window may be closing. Same goes for Chris Iannetta, who hit his fourth bomb of the month.

o. From the "Ridiculously Under the Radar Files" (yes, such files exist at Fantasy FanHouse), comes Jeff Larish. He's started four straight games and hit jacks in three consecutive games, seeing time at both first base and designated hitter. He's on the verge of becoming more than just a cool AL-only sleeper.

Run to the Wire for ... Nolan Reimold, one of two hot prospects making their way up to the bigs, Mat Gamel being the other. For my money, I think Reimold will have much better fantasy value. He had nine homers, 27 RBI and a .394 average in Triple-A. With Luke Scott seemingly DL-bound and Adam Jones hurting, Reimold should find more at-bats than Gamel. Both are must-own in mono leagues though.

The Afflicted: Carl Crawford is day-to-day after bruising his right shoulder. Ryan Ludwick hit the disabled list with a strained left hamstring. Adam Jones tweaked his hamstring in Wednesday's game. The Angels activated Ervin Santana from the 15-day disabled list. He'll start Thursday against the Red Sox. Rangers closer Frank Francisco is expected to be back Sunday.

Friday's Ace in the Hole: Brett Cecil (1-0, 0.64), who's shown great command for a rookie through two starts, will take on the White Sox at home. If he pitches well again, he should be owned in all deep mixed leagues. Eric Stults (4-1, 3.58 ERA) faces the Marlins on the road. He's only been roughed up in one outing so far.

Roto Rush: The Rebirth of Rickie Weeks originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 14 May 2009 13:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Need Some Pop? Grab These Guys

Knox Bardeen — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 13:02:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Waiver Wire, MLB Yard Work

Let's face it, we could all use a little bit of help on our fantasy teams. I'm currently mired with Chris Davis and Mark Teixeira as my corner infielders in one of my fantasy leagues. I can't cut either, but I could sure use some stop-gap assistance until they both wake up.

If you're looking for some power potential off of the waiver wire, I've found four hitters who could step in until some of your big bats wake up.

Mike Jacobs, Royals - Jacobs popped 32 home runs last season and already has four more in the early stages on 2009. He's batting .282/.349/.692 and has ten RBI. Currently he's sitting on the waiver wire in 79% of Yahoo fantasy leagues. That's a shame because he could probably help a lot of fantasy teams.

Mike Cameron, Brewers - Seven of Cameron's 12 base hits this season have been for extra bases. He's also stolen two bases, has six RBI and pretty good slash stats of .316/.422.711. He's only owned in 42% of Yahoo leagues and should be considered in leagues where you use five outfielders.

Mike Lowell, Red Sox - Lowell seems to be back from his injury plagued 2008 season and hitting the ball well. His 13 RBI are only three behind league leader Andre Ethier and he's hitting .280/.333/.480. His numbers aren't quite good enough to be your starting third baseman, but in leagues that use corner infielders, Lowell is certainly worth owning while he's driving in runs. He's only owned in 36% of Yahoo leagues right now.

Jason Kubel, Twins - Kubel hit for the cycle last weekend and has had two four-hit games over the past week. He's hit two home runs and driven in 12 this season and could help some in deeper leagues with five outfielders. He's batting .333/.362/.578 right now and is owned in only 20% of Yahoo fantasy leagues.

Need Some Pop? Grab These Guys originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Tue, 21 Apr 2009 13:02:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: Yard Work

Tom Herrera — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 09:00:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit, MLB Yard Work

Yard Work focuses on what chicks allegedly love: the long ball. From the big boppers to the small poppers, it's a rundown of which home run hitters will make a dent in your fantasy baseball league.

When Jose Reyes makes his move for second and robs another bag from an unsuspecting pitcher, the Mets faithful follow with applause and "Jose, Jose Jose Jose!" chants. But there's 50 or so more to go from Jose, and no matter how dirty that jersey gets, it's still just a stolen base.

David Wright steps up to the plate, drills a first-pitch heater into the picnic area ... it's BIG APPLE TIME. Cue the wackier video animation and the rumbling seats, too.

Say what you want about the appeal of steals, the home run is still king.

In fantasy baseball, however, that king can be overrated.

During the 2008 season, 28 players smacked over 30 dingers, but only 16 swiped more than 30 bases. Out of the upper-echelon 28, about one-third of the batters were taken a significant discount in last year's fantasy drafts: Carlos Delgado (38 HR), Ryan Ludwick (37), Carlos Quentin (36), Jim Thome (34), Jack Cust (33), Mike Jacobs (32), Jason Giambi (32), Aubrey Huff (32) and Jason Bay (31). While Ludwick and Quentin were breakouts, the rest of that group could be classified as name retreads -- a few of which were drafted in the last round (Hey Huff!).

The point to take away, aside from never counting an old blaster completely out (Hey Delgado!), is that there's often a lot of hidden fantasy value to be discovered when it comes to homers. It may seem tempting to plunk down a first-round pick on Ryan Howard's 48 bombs, but think about where Adam Dunn is going (Average Draft Position: 63) and what you should spend that top pick on instead (a stud at a scarce position, perhaps?).

So with that in mind, it's time to take a look at tiers of big knock glory for the 2009 season. We're limiting this to predicted shakeup in the tiers, rather than rehashing last year's impact hitters (which are listed in the 'others').

Ready to Rake (picks for 30+ HR)

Hanley Ramirez, Marlins -- According to various reports, he's added roughly 25 pounds of muscle. That may be just Spring Training fodder, or there may be something to it. The important thing to note is fantasy baseball's golden child of shortstops is all grown up and batting third for the Marlins. His homers have trended from 17 to 29 to 33 over the last three years, while the steals took a dip last season. So why isn't he on the others list with the rest of the guys expected to hit 30 again? Because we think his upside is joining the rarefied 40-homer club. And we're not the only ones.

Evan Longoria, Rays -- There's no doubt Longoria lived up to the hype in his rookie year. In 448 at-bats, he smacked 27 homers and drove in 85. The scary part: he's only 23 ... this actually gets better. It should come as no surprise when Longoria tops 30 jacks this season and possibly even surpasses 35. Step aside Carlos Pena; this is the Tampa Bay slugger you want.

Carlos Beltran, Mets -- I saw Nick Markakis valued above Beltran on a few early cheat sheets. That's silly Gonzo love. While Markakis is a fine player and someone I expect bigger things out of, Beltran has been a consistent, established force the past three seasons in a good lineup. Sure, his power output dropped to 27 HR last year, but he also knocked 40 doubles and should get back above 30 HR this season.

Chris Davis, Rangers -- Here's where the fun starts! The Chris Davis bandwagon has already left the station and is quickly gaining steam. In the latest mock drafts, Davis is being selected with an ADP of 65.71. That's three spots above AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and eight spots above record-breaking closer Francisco Rodriguez. He's only got 295 major league at-bats, but drilling 17 homers and 23 doubles in that sample size was enough to get us pumped for the possibility of 30 jacks in 2009. The usual caveats apply, but Davis is the real deal.

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs -- After two injury-riddled seasons, it's easy to forget this was the same dude who smacked 46 homers at RFK in 2006. No one is expecting that kind of output again from the 33-year-old, but you can't deny his power potential when he's on a hot streak. In May 2008, he belted 10 out of the park and drove in 29 runs. A healthy Soriano is a 35-homer star with some speed still left to burn.

Paul Konerko, White Sox -- What a difference a year makes, right? Konerko was perennially drafted as one of the surest sluggers at first base. After a miserable season, everyone is already tossing this guy out with the chicken bones. His average draft position is 176 -- that's below a pitcher like Aaron Cook, which is just plain silly. Let's not forget Konerko topped 30 homers every season from 2004-07, and had nine dongs in September '08. You want Davis at a fraction of the price? Try Uncle Paulie.

Jorge Cantu, Marlins -- A lot of people must believe Cantu's 29 bombs last season were all flukes, because that would be the only way to explain why his ADP is about 148. It doesn't really make sense that he's being taken after Edwin Encarnacion. Cantu, who also smacked 41 doubles in '08, returns to the heart of the lineup this year and qualifies at two positions. Rest assured his power is legit -- even in a tough park like Dolphin Stadium.

Justin Morneau, Twins -- Fantasy owners surely appreciated Morneau's 129 RBI last year, but his total of 23 jacks left much (OK, about 10) to be desired. Chalk it up to tough luck: the Canadian slugger drilled 47 doubles, and should see more of those clear the wall this year. Draft him with confidence.

David Ortiz, Red Sox -- He sure looks older than he actually is, doesn't he? Ortiz is only 33, but troublesome knee and wrist injuries last season cast doubt over his usual spot among the game's best power hitters. A season like 2006 (54 homers) is in the clouds, but I think he can get back to 35 with a clean bill of health. If your league employs a utility spot, getting Big Papi in the fifth round is a nice value pick.

Joey Votto, Reds -- Brandon Phillips is Cincinnati's new cleanup hitter after the departure of Adam Dunn. But by the end of the season, this is the guy who should be filling that gap. Take a closer look at a rookie season where he had 24 moonshots and you'll find a scorching September that accounted for nine of them. In such a favorable place to hit as Great American Ballpark, I'd be shocked if he doesn't reach the 30-homer plateau. Forget Derrek Lee and take Votto. Oh, and Phillips has an outside shot at 30, too.

Chris Young, Diamondbacks -- Like Morneau, this five-tool outfielder took a step back in the homer department, though I think we'll see a change of fortune this season. He may never get beyond the Mike Cameron comparisons, but he's got a very good shot to send 30 flying in Arizona.

Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, Astros -- Just throwing these two master blasters out there because they fell just short of the mark last season, but should pass it this time around.

Others Who Should Hit 30+ Again: Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Carlos Delgado, Manny Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Ryan Ludwick, Albert Pujols, Carlos Quentin, Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, Prince Fielder, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, David Wright, Grazy Sizemore, Mark Teixeira, Aubrey Huff, Dan Uggla, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena, Jason Bay

Digging In (picks for 20-29 HR)

Alex Rios, Blue Jays -- I don't think he'll ever be the 30-30 player some have envisioned, but he definitely has the pop to be a perennial 20-HR hitter. If he can avoid a similar slow start this year, 24 bombs shouldn't be a problem for the five-category Blue Jay.

Jeff Francoeur, Braves -- Seriously, don't write this guy off. Francoeur let a lot of fantasy owners down last season, and while they may not let him off the hook, you shouldn't shy from drafting him. After all, it only will cost you something like a ridiculous 26th-round pick. That's a rock bottom price for a possible 25 homers and 100 RBI. Now that he has better conditioning and a new approach, you know I'm taking that flier.

Matt Kemp, Dodgers -- Kemp's average draft position has soared to the third round and rightfully so. Even a moderate improvement in power would bring him to 25 homers. Combine that with his 30-steal speed and you've got an elite fantasy player.

Chris Iannetta, Rockies and Ryan Doumit, Pirates -- We knew both these guys could really hit, and last season they finally got their chances to break through. If you're looking for a Brian McCann Lite, Iannetta and Doumit will be waiting for your call around the 12th round.

Nelson Cruz, Rangers -- Yes, he did his minor league damage in the hitter-friendly PCL, but 37 homers is 37 homers. Oh yeah, and his seven jacks in 115 at-bats for Texas weren't too shabby either. I think his average draft position of 129 is a bit out of control, but the potential has always been there. At age 28 and with a full-time gig, it's time he finally lives up to it.

Dallas McPherson, Marlins -- He could very well be the cheapest source of power in fantasy leagues this year, and you probably won't even have to draft him in mixed leagues. The oft-injured former Angels prospect hit 42 homers at Class AAA last season. If he wins the hot corner job, the sleeper alarm goes off.

Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals -- Ignore the middle infielder-esque HR total of 14 from last year. He'll surge back over 20 and will come at a reduced draft price this season.

Others Who Should Hit 20+ Again: Pat Burrell, Jack Cust, Chase Utley, Mike Jacobs, Jason Giambi, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, Aramis Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Nate McLouth, Edwin Encarnacion, Xavier Nady, Rick Ankiel, Adam LaRoche, Matt Holliday, Mike Cameron, Brad Hawpe, Hunter Pence, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, J.J. Hardy, Nick Swisher, Raul Ibanez, Jhonny Peralta, Nick Markakis, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chipper Jones, Milton Bradley, Curtis Granderson, Torii Hunter, Magglio Ordonez, Garrett Atkins, Vernon Wells, Stephen Drew, Alexei Ramirez, Jay Bruce, Bobby Abreu, Jose Guillen, Derrek Lee, Corey Hart, Jason Kubel

Pulling Weeds (still waiting for their chance to rake)

Matt Wieters, Orioles -- He most likely won't have a spot in the majors to start, but it's only a matter of time before he gets his shot to shine. And when he does, it could have a Longoria-type effect in fantasy leagues. Just don't go overboard with where you select him. If you're in an AL-only league, then go nuts.

Travis Snider, Blue Jays -- Last year, the 21-year-old proved two things throughout his minor league action and cup of coffee in the bigs: boy does he strike out a lot, and man, is his bat something special. If he gets a full share of at-bats this year, he has a shot at 20 homers. And if he doesn't, remember he's only 21.

Matt LaPorta, Indians -- Like Wieters, he won't make the opening-day roster, but the outfielder's power potential makes him well worth watching in mixed leagues and especially in AL-only. He's got star potential, for sure.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals -- The next Grady Sizemore? There's a looong way to go, but that's his kind of upside. He should be past the slumps and injuries that bogged him down last season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him show some fantasy-worthy pop in the show this year.

Nolan Reimold, Orioles -- Just because he can't win an outfield job this spring doesn't mean you should boot him off your radar. The 25-year-old has a solid plate approach and can hit 20+ jacks if the O's (or someone else) open up room for him down the line.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: Yard Work originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 27 Feb 2009 09:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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