Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse

Stud or Shelton: Holland on the Rise

R.J. White — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 16:30:00 EST

Remember Chris Shelton's nine home runs in the first 13 games for the Detroit Tigers in 2006? Stud or Shelton examines whether currently hot players are displaying a similar mirage or will continue to play at a high level.

In 2009, a Texas rookie pitcher by the name of Derek Holland has a 5.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 91 innings. Sounds like more of the same from the Rangers, right? So why is Holland appearing in Stud or Shelton?

On July 30th, Holland held the Mariners to one run on two hits in 8.2 innings, striking out 10 batters, an impressive feat. That put him on the radar. He then had a forgettable start at Oakland before squaring off against the Angels in Anaheim yesterday. In that one, Holland threw a complete-game shutout, picking up another win while striking out another eight batters.

Can he keep it up, or will he become just another rookie to fall by the wayside?

Derek Holland definitely has the pedigree; he entered this season as the Rangers' second-best prospect, according to Baseball America. He dominated the minors at all levels last year, picking up 157 strikeouts and only 40 walks in 150.2 innings. There was talk of Holland debuting in the Rangers rotation, but they decided to work him out of the bullpen. He's been shuttled back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen this year, but with his recent success and the Rangers' playoff hopes, it's essential that they leave him in the rotation at this point.

If you do have Holland, or you're planning on picking him up after this run of success, I want to point you to his home/road splits. The rookie has pitched 41.2 innings at home, putting up a 6.70 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in the process. On the road, the numbers come down to a 3.65 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He's had a much easier time away from Arlington, and although his brilliant start on July 30th was at home, you might want to consider exercising a bit of caution when Holland is at home, at least for now.

Verdict: I think Holland has a bright future in the majors, and I see no reason that bright future can't start now. I'm marking him down as a stud for the remainder of 2009. Dynasty-league owners should be all over him.

Stud or Shelton: Holland on the Rise originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 10 Aug 2009 16:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Stud or Shelton: Padres' Young Sluggers

Matt Snyder — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 15:30:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Sleepers, MLB Stud or Shelton, MLB Waiver Wire

Remember Chris Shelton's nine home runs in the first 13 games for the Detroit Tigers in 2006? Stud or Shelton examines whether currently hot players are displaying a similar mirage or will continue to play at a high level.

With the Jake Peavy trade and whispers about a possible deal of Adrian Gonzalez at the trade deadline last week, the Padres have been in the headlines quite a bit for a team playing really bad baseball. Of course, they haven't been in said headlines for on-field activity. Thus, you might have missed the power strides being made by two youngsters: Kyle Blanks and Will Venable.

Is it real? You know how we roll ... it's Stud or Shelton time.

Kyle Blanks

Blanks is 22 years old, and he's an absolute specimen; 6-foot-6, 270 pounds of what appears to be pure muscle. He hits prodigious home runs when he gets a hold of them, and he even hit for average in the minors (.325 last year). The Padres are fully committed to the future, even to the point they considered dealing Gonzalez and leaving Blanks to replace him at first base.

You expect growing pains when a youngster like this tries to adapt the majors midseason. We saw that when Blanks struggled early. He only had six hits through his first 40 at-bats, including zero home runs.

If you merely look at Blanks' current batting average on the season you will still be unimpressed. He's hitting only .218. Since July 21, though, he's hitting a respectable .275. More importantly, he's left the yard six times in 51 at-bats during that span. Three of those bombs were at home, in the ridiculously spacious Petco Park. Despite the bad average, his season OPS is .787, which gives him a solid 117 OPS+.

There are also signs he's going to continue bringing that average up. His BABIP is still a tad bit low, meaning he should see a continued progression in his rate stats. His high walk total has helped make his on-base percentage solid. That means he's already grasping the strike zone.

Verdict: He's definitely a future stud, and we're going to say he's studly with power the rest of the year.

Will Venable

He's surging in a much more thunderous way than Blanks right now. Venable, the 26-year-old outfielder, has been on an absolute tear for the past week. Actually, he went 0-for-4 Thursday night. Before that, though, he went through a seven-game span where he hit .481 with a 1.554 OPS, 5 home runs, 12 RBI and 7 runs. Like I said, he was sizzling.

We can't totally discount the short little streak as a fluke, because he's never gotten the chance to play every day and he's still young enough to be breaking out. So, let's check it out.

In the minors, he made a quick ascent to Triple-A. Last season, he hit .292 with 14 homers in 120 games of Triple-A play. He was an average big-league hitter for 110 at-bats. This season, he hit just .260 in 53 minor-league games, but he did drop 12 bombs. Nothing in his peripherals is jumping out as ridiculous, but he has been a bit fortunate in terms of fly balls leaving the yard and balls in play finding open areas.

Verdict: Shelton. I can't pull the trigger on him. He appears to be pretty ordinary in all categories, meaning he just recently hit a small-sample-size aided hot streak. There is some power there, but he's not playing in a park conducive to long-term success unless you have the kind of strength Blanks or Gonzalez do.

Stud or Shelton: Padres' Young Sluggers originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 07 Aug 2009 15:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Chad Gaudin Beginning to Appear on Fantasy Radar

Knox Bardeen — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 15:10:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Stud or Shelton

At first glance, Chad Gaudin shouldn't be on anyone's fantasy baseball radar. At 4-6 with a 4.97 ERA it wouldn't seem that he could help that many fantasy teams.

You need to look deeper into his recent pitching to realize that Gaudin is a solid NL-only pick up right now.

On Sunday, Gaudin threw eight scoreless innings against the Texas Rangers to earn the win. He also struck out nine and only walked two. The only hit he gave up was in the first inning. He then went on to retire 23 of the next 25 batters. Padres manager Bud Black offered great praise on Gaudin's performance.

"I've seen a lot of games in this park from that dugout," said Padres manager Bud Black, the pitching coach for the Los Angeles Angels seven seasons before that. "That was one of the best-pitched games I've seen."

This was Gaudin's second straight victory. In fact, Gaudin is 2-1 over his last three starts with a 2.14 ERA. His strikeout to walk ratio is also great at 5.60 (28 strikeouts with only five walks) over his last three starts.

Only owned in 3% of fantasy leagues, you should have no trouble adding Gaudin to your teams in NL-only leagues. If he continues to keep his strikeout rate up (9.42 K/9) and his walk rate down Gaudin may become a solid mixed-league addition soon.

Chad Gaudin Beginning to Appear on Fantasy Radar originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 29 Jun 2009 15:10:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Stud or Shelton: Adam Kennedy

Knox Bardeen — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 14:57:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Stud or Shelton

Remember Chris Shelton's nine home runs in the first 13 games for the Detroit Tigers in 2006? Stud or Shelton examines whether currently hot players are displaying a similar mirage or will continue to play at a high level.

It was straight from a movie script or the backyard of millions of wiffle ballers nationwide. Okay, maybe I'm being a bit melodramatic, but Adam Kennedy's ninth inning home run Sunday off of Texas' Frank Francisco (his first earned run given up all season) was, at the least, memorable.

Adam Kennedy had blasted a home run off of Kevin Millwood in the first inning. His ninth inning tater slammed the door on the surging Rangers and gave Oakland a 5-to-4 win, not to mention was Kennedy's fourth of the season. But, why all the hubbub?

To see why we're all talking about Adam Kennedy take a look at his stat line through 82 at-bats. He's batting .390/.462/.622 with four home runs, seven doubles, 15 RBI and five stolen bases. And he's only owned in 14% of Yahoo! leagues. With numbers like that it's a no-brainer that you should run out and grab this hot hitting second baseman with outfielder eligibility off of the waiver wire.

Let's look at some more numbers before you do that.

Kennedy hasn't hit this many home runs in a season since 2006 when he four and hasn't surpassed four dingers since 2004. 33-year-old middle infielders typically don't bust out with the power sticks this late in their career. Two reasons this may be happening now is his increased home run to fly ball ratio and and new look approach at the plate.

Kennedy's HR/F ratio has skyrocketed to 19.0%. His best ever HR/F ratio was in 2003 with 8.3% and in the last three years he's only managed to get as high as 3.3% in 2006. More (many, many more) of Kennedy's fly balls are leaving the ball park. This also could be because Kennedy seems to be thinking more like a controlled, free swinger (not necessarily an oxymoron) at the plate. While his walk rate is almost doubled from last season, Kennedy is also striking out more too. This leads me to believe that he's seeing the ball well right now and he's trying harder to hit with a bit of power.

Looking at his line drive rate you'll see a huge increase from last season as well. The increase from 24.8% to 31.4% is surely helping his batting average a lot. But, what's mostly assisting his batting average is an extremely high hit rate.

Kennedy has a career hit rate of 31.5%, which is pretty close to average among all major league hitters. This season his hit rate is 42.4%. That figure is just way too high to maintain. When it falls, Kennedy's batting average will come down with it.

So, is Adam Kennedy a stud or a Shelton? That depends on what your expectations are. If you pick up Kennedy right now expecting him to maintain his current pace, you'll be sadly disappointed. He'd surely be a Shelton in that regard.

But, if you signed him thinking he'd probably finish the season batting around .280 to .290 and approaching double digit home runs and stolen bases, you should feel good enjoying his extreme torrid pace until he cools and then use him as a situational position player. Because you know if he's hitting .390 now, to finish the season at .280 to .290, he's going to have to go through some down periods. Just don't get caught without a way to bench Kennedy for those time periods.

Stud or Shelton: Adam Kennedy originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 01 Jun 2009 14:57:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Five Alive, It's Rick Porcello Time

Tom Herrera — Thu, 28 May 2009 10:55:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Injury Report, MLB Locking Your Lineup, MLB Stud or Shelton, MLB Waiver Wire

Poppin' out the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.

Remember 'Five Alive,' the juicy blend with five fruits that's fun for all the family? Well, Rick Porcello is a unique blend of rookie flavor who's reeled off five straight victories. You can hardly find that syrupy drink on the shelves anymore, but you can still find Porcello in about 30 percent of Yahoo! leagues. And that's not all there is to like about Porcello. After the jump, it's fun time for all fantasy owners! (sugar rush optional)

Porcello threw 53 of his 82 pitches for strikes against the Royals, but what really caught my eye was 11 groundball outs to only three fly outs. In four out his past five wins, Porcello's induced a significant number of groundouts and kept his control in check. His strikeout tally has been steady, with 32 K's over 51 2/3 innings. It's also nice to see Jim Leyland isn't overworking the talented hurler so early in his career. Porcello has been pulled before he's reached 90 pitches in four of his last five games.

A very impressive string for Porcello, no doubt, but stay cautious and remember he's a rookie, and a 20-year-old one at that. It's easy to already draw comparisons to another Detroit pitcher that had great success his first full year, Justin Verlander, who posted a 3.63 ERA and 17 wins in 2006. The biggest thing they have in common is maturity, and though Porcello obviously doesn't have the fastball Verlander possesses, he's shown rare confidence and command of his repertoire for a pitcher his age.

I think we'll continue to see ups and downs from Porcello in 2009, with more positive starts mixed in than negative ones. An ERA around 4.00 with 14 wins is a fair expectation, and anything better is just gravy. Both the Tigers and keeper-leaguers have a special one on their hands.

Bits From the Box Scores
o. One of the few bright spots for the Pirates has been the play of third baseman Andy LaRoche. His 11-game hit streak ended against the Cubs, but if the rest of his season goes anything like the first two months, we could be looking at a very cheap 15-homer, 70-RBI corner option with solid average. Basically, what Conor Jackson was before he got illnesses like valley fever. By the way, don't ever do a Google images search for valley fever, trust me on this one.

o. Four hits and a 10th stolen base for Josh Anderson out of the Tigers' leadoff spot. If he got any kind of consistent playing time there, he'd swipe 30 easy and score 90 runs. Alas, he's an AL-only gem and not a whole lot more.

o. Yes, that was Toronto's Aaron Hill hitting his 12th homer of the year -- one more than Chase Utley. And yes, that was Orioles rookie Nolan Reimold blasting his fourth in only 49 at-bats, a game-winning shot to win it in extra innings. You have to love it when a "late call-up" prospect like Reimold excels right away. It looks like he'll stay fantasy relevant all season long. Amazingly, he available in almost every mixed league. The 20-plus homer power is for real, and this offense is going to be even more potent with Matt Wieters coming up. So while everyone goes ga-ga over the catcher, don't overlook the 6-foot-4 slugger with shaving cream on his face.

o. Thirty-four walks already this season for Manny Parra. At the rate he's stinking up the joint, I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a bump down to the bullpen or even the minors if he can't get his act together. Jettison him from your team if you haven't done so yet. With that same logic, Clayton Kershaw would be waiver bait, but the difference is Kershaw has maintained a 2.57 ERA and .176 batting average against in May despite shaky control. Imagine how good he's going to be.

o. Three steal attempts for Ichiro in the series against Oakland. We should start to see him be more active on the basepaths now that he's in a hitting groove (.362 average in May). A good buy-low, relatively speaking. Or go pick up speedy Denard Span instead, laugh, and eat some Pocky for good measure.

o. You know what's sad? You could make a case that Russell Branyan is the Mariners' most valuable player to this point. Not many times will you see a guy with 11 homers still unowned in 40 percent of leagues, but there you have it. Mr. Branyan at your service, gents.

o. Dan Uggla is waking up in a big way. Five homers over his last nine games, and the average should improve to stomachable territory as well. Here's one to take you for a loop: shortstop Ben Zobrist is only one home run and seven RBI shy of Uggla ... and sitting on the waiver wire in 50 percent of leagues. Oh, and he stole his fifth base Wednesday.

o. Nick Johnson, putting together his best Mets audition, collected three more hits and his 21st RBI of May. Fernando Martinez, doing his best Lastings Milledge impersonation, went 0-for-4 and was caught watching one of his pop-ups in front of the plate. The only fantasy-relevant Martinez this season is Victor.

o. Three strikeouts for Chris Davis a day after he blasted two homers against the Yankees. It looks like we're just going to loathe this guy in the average department. My dad called him the modern day Rob Deer, and glancing at Deer's career stats, it's a pretty accurate comparison. Home run or bust.

o. Look who decided to hit a home run with men on base -- Jay Bruce. He's hit nine of them in May alone, but has only 16 RBI to account for the jacks. Bruce is batting .163 with runners in scoring position. Still, you can't gripe too much with 14 homers.

o. Jered Weaver wins my vote for the most underrated fantasy starter so far this year. He has a 2.36 ERA and a 53:18 strikeout-to-walk ratio through his first 10 starts. Many of us were expecting something close to his 2007 numbers, but he's turned the clock back to his stellar 2006 rookie season.

o. Not too shabby, Jake Fox. One at-bat, one hit, one RBI. He smashed the ball to the tune of 17 homers and 50 RBI down at Triple-A before his call-up. However, he's unlikely to get an extended look in Chicago.

Lineup Lock Time: There are only five games on the docket, but two of them are afternoon affairs. Tampa Bay plays Cleveland at 12:05 PM ET.

The Afflicted: It looks like Hanley Ramirez, still sidelined with groin tightness, won't play in Friday's game either. Alfonso Soriano admitted he's battling soreness in his knee; that could explain the .223 average in May. Jake Peavy pitched with some tendinitis in his right ankle against the D'Backs. Nothing to get alarmed about, yet. Travis Hafner hopes to return from the disabled list Monday, so don't forget about him. Brett Myers is scheduled to undergo an MRI Thursday on his right hip after X-rays revealed some "jaggedness." Carlos Zambrano survived beating up a gatorade machine without injury, but will likely be suspended one start after his run-in. Cardinals GM John Mozeliak's gut tells him Troy Glaus has "less than a 50-50 chance" of returning this year. Why does my gut tell me it's closer to nil?

Down on the Farm: Gordon Beckham, the South Side is calling. Well, not quite yet, but Beckham was pushed up to Triple-A and is officially creeping onto the fantasy radar. There's not one player batting over .246 between infielders Chris Getz, Jayson Nix, Alexei Ramirez and Josh Fields. So if you've got dead weight in a very deep league, now is the time to make a speculative play for Beckham, as well as the likes of pitchers Tommy Hanson and Clay Buchholz.

Friday's Ace in the Hole: A's rookie Josh Outman seems like a nice pick, but shaky command and a trip to Arlington is a bad combination. I'd roll with ground-baller Mike Pelfrey (4-1, 4.31 ERA) instead. He hasn't given up over three runs in any of his last six starts and has a good shot at the W. Since his return to the bigs, Brian Bannister (4-1, 2.79 ERA) has pitched well under the radar. He'll get the volatile White Sox at home. Finally, I like Philadelphia lefty J.A. Happ (2-0, 2.60 ERA) against ... who else ... the Nationals. They're sending Ross Detwiler out on the mound for his very first road start.

Five Alive, It's Rick Porcello Time originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 28 May 2009 10:55:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Is Shairon Martis a Stud or a Shelton?

Matt Snyder — Fri, 15 May 2009 15:40:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Stud or Shelton

Remember Chris Shelton's nine home runs in the first 13 games for the Detroit Tigers in 2006? Stud or Shelton examines whether currently hot players are displaying a similar mirage or will continue to play at a high level.

In taking a glance at the Washington Nationals' record right now -- 11-21 -- and you could easily surmise that every starting pitcher has a losing record. I mean, they are 10 games under .500 and it's only May 15. Glance into their starting pitching stats, however, and you see something really odd. 5-0. Yep, someone is 5-0 -- meaning the team is 6-21 when he doesn't factor in the decision. This man is named Shairon Martis. Who the hell is he, and, more importantly, will this dazzling pitching continue?

Actually, it's not even dazzling pitching. As any astute baseball fan knows, wins and losses don't accurately define a pitcher's performance -- they are merely a product of circumstance. Obviously, good pitchers can put themselves in position to win more games than bad pitchers, but compare Dan Haren's pitching to Martis' and you'll see exactly why record doesn't tell the real story with pitchers.

Martis has been fortunate to get an average of 6.64 runs in support per start this season, and his ERA sits at a modest 4.10. He's allowed 40 hits in 41 2/3 innings and walked almost as many as he's struck out (21 K to 17 BB). Yet he's 5-0 on a really bad team. This kind of circumstantial success cannot be sustained.

I'm not saying Martis isn't promising. He is. His ERA is a bit skewed due to two bad outings. He only went 3 innings in his season debut and he allowed 7 earned runs on April 27. In his five other starts, he hasn't allowed more than 3 runs and he always works into the sixth inning. He even threw an absolute gem against the Cardinals -- completing the game and giving up only 1 run on 5 hits.

If you look at Martis' minor league track record, he's always been good without being spectacular. Still, he turned 22 a week before the season started and this 5-0 start has to do immeasurable things to his confidence. In turn, he'll continue to trust his stuff and -- because of the run support he's gotten -- will never feel like he has to be perfect. The strikeouts will rise once he gets into a comfort zone as well.

The Verdict: Martis is more Shelton than Stud, but there's reason for optimism when it comes to the future rotation in Washington. Just imagine Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Martis and John Lannan with that solid offense giving them run support in 2010. They have a real chance to make some noise.

Consider Martis ownable in deeper mixed leagues, but don't go rushing to the wire to drop a Ted Lilly or Randy Wolf for him. Feel free to drop in specific drop/add questions here in the comments section and we'll help you out.

Is Shairon Martis a Stud or a Shelton? originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 15 May 2009 15:40:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Stud or Shelton: Alberto Callaspo

Matt Snyder — Wed, 06 May 2009 15:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Stud or Shelton

Remember Chris Shelton's nine home runs in the first 13 games for the Detroit Tigers in 2006? Stud or Shelton examines whether currently hot players are displaying a similar mirage or will continue to play at a high level.

As promised in today's Roto Rush, we're gonna check out Mr. Alberto Callaspo. After another solid night Tuesday, Callaspo is hitting .379 with 16 runs, 2 home runs and 11 RBI. He also has a league-high 13 doubles and has walked twice as much as he's struck out (10 to 5). So, this is a joke right? He's coming back down to Earth immediately.

Not so fast ...

Last season, as a part-time player, Callaspo hit .305 in 213 at-bats. He walked 19 times and only struck out 14. He only had 8 doubles, but did compile 3 triples. This was all after a league transition -- he came over from the Diamondbacks of the National League -- to the more difficult league.

His minor league track record was really, really solid before being jerked around by the D-Backs. In 2005 he hit .304 with 29 doubles, 2 triples, 11 homers and 80 RBI in 139 games. In 2006 he hit .337 with 24 doubles, 12 triples, 7 home runs and 68 RBI in 114 games. Along the way, Callaspo walked 229 times while only striking out 145.

If you're looking for home run power, he's not your man. He does, however, have great gap power, good speed, and an incredible understanding of the strike zone. The Royals are playing good baseball right now, but they aren't a good hitting team just yet. Getting this kind of production from a middle infielder means it would behoove them to leave Callaspo in the lineup. Plus, he can play second or short.

Verdict: Stud. He's obviously not hitting .379 all year, but he's very legitimate in terms of the talent he's showing. At age 26 he'll continue to flourish into a solid everyday player. That is, of course, assuming Trey Hillman leaves him in the lineup.

Stud or Shelton: Alberto Callaspo originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 06 May 2009 15:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Time to Believe in Bonifacio?

Knox Bardeen — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 22:45:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Stud or Shelton, MLB Waiver Wire

Remember Chris Shelton's nine home runs in the first 13 games for the Detroit Tigers in 2006? Stud or Shelton examines whether currently hot players are displaying a similar mirage or will continue to play at a high level.

Heading into training camp six to eight weeks ago the Marlins weren't even sure that Emilio Bonifacio would make this Marlins team. We're now almost a week into the season and one south Florida newspaper (tongue in cheek hopefully) is comparing Bonifacio to Babe Ruth. While it's unfair -- no 23-year-old should ever be compared to the Sultan of Swat -- Bonifacio is currently white hot.

After Saturday's game, Bonifacio has 14 hits in 24 at-bats for a .583 batting average. He also recorded an inside-the-park home run in his first game, has scored nine runs, driven in five runs and stolen four bases. Those numbers were good enough to vault Bonifacio from being owned in less then 10 percent of fantasy baseball leagues to now being owned in 71 percent of all leagues on Yahoo. However, can he keep this pace going?

The quick answer is no, it's just not possible. He's on pace to steal 129 bases, hit 32 home runs and drive in 162.

He cannot keep that pace up, but it may be time for the folks in the 29 percent of Yahoo's other fantasy baseball leagues to go sign him.

Up until now, and I'm including his minor league numbers here, Bonifacio has been a one-trick pony. He's always been a speedster, stealing 40 or more bases in four of his six minor league seasons. In 2006 for Advanced-A Lancaster, while still playing in the Diamondbacks organization, he stole 61 bases. In total, he's swiped 233 bases over six seasons of minor league ball. That's an average of almost 39 a year.

But speed isn't the only thing Bonifacio is showing off with five regular-season games under his belt in 2009. Yeah, he has a home run (he only had 12 in six minor league seasons), though that was an inside-the-park job, so let's chalk that up to speed, not power. What Bonifacio is showing at the plate, that he really never has, is discipline. In 24 at-bats his contact rate is 91.6%. What that means is he's only struck out twice. It's also an elite contact rate.

Since 2005, he's steadily gotten better with his plate discipline. He finished that season with an 82.7% contact rate and finished the 2008 season with an 84.4% contact rate. In 86 spring at-bats, where he won the starting job, his contact rate was 80.2% which led to a .279 batting average. I think his spring batting average and contact rate are going to resemble what he finishes the regular season with. It'll be too much for Bonifacio to keep his current contact rate and batting average where it is now.

For the record, I'm calling stud, not Shelton, on Emilio Bonifacio in 2009. His speed is going to keep him in this lineup all season. If he can steal 35-45 bases (close to his career average) and bat .270 to .280 (also, just under his career average) he'll be an incredible waiver-wire pickup for those of you who have already done so. And, if you haven't signed him in a fantasy league where he's available, do so.

My prediction for 2009: .274 | 92 runs | 4 home runs | 44 RBI | 36 stolen bases

Time to Believe in Bonifacio? originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Sat, 11 Apr 2009 22:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Stud or Shelton? After 1 Start ...

Matt Snyder — Fri, 10 Apr 2009 11:30:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Stud or Shelton, MLB Waiver Wire

The first few days of the season are a great time for fantasy owners. We can enjoy a hot start for our team -- which obviously means a championship is on the way -- or we're stuck scouring the waiver wire for guys who have already shown they are going to be a stud all season long. Then, we remember Chris Shelton. In 2006, Shelton had 9 home runs and 17 RBI with a .471 average through 13 games. Thus, he is our namesake for Stud or Shelton.

Today, we'll check out a bevy of unheralded and/or maligned starting pitchers who have shown their true studly colors in their first start. Or have they? The lightning round of judgment follows the jump (because we heart lightning rounds).

More Coverage: Brinson Discusses SP1 FAIL

Ubaldo Jimenez
The Case: Out-dueled Dan Haren in Arizona, shutting down the Diamondbacks for 7 shutout innings. He struck out 8.
The Verdict: Stud
The Rationale: He's progressed the past three seasons anyway, and he's only 25. Up and comer here.

Kevin Millwood
The Case: He dealt against the Indians on Opening Day, only allowing 1 earned run in 7 innings. He struck out 5 and walked only 1.
The Verdict: Shelton
The Rationale: He's gotten knocked around far too much the past three seasons to believe he's all of a sudden fixed things at age 34. Look for his ERA to return to the 5.00-range quite soon.

Franklin Morales
The Case: The-23 year-old gave up only a solo home run in 6 innings of work. He struck out 6 and walked only 1.
The Verdict: Doesn't matter for now.
The Rationale: He was already sent down to the minors. Table him for now -- until they realize Jason Marquis sucks -- but keep your eyes peeled. He's a solid prospect.

Zach Duke
The Case: Worked 6 1/3 innings against the Cardinals, allowing only 1 earned run.
The Verdict: Shelton
The Rationale: He's only 26, but I'm not buying it. In the past three seasons he hasn't shown any ability to make adjustments during the season. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Astros knock him around Monday.

Zach Miner
The Case: Took the ball against the Blue Jays and went 5 2/3 innings, only allowing 6 hits and 1 run.
The Verdict: Shelton
The Rationale: With the continued growth of Rick Porcello and Jeremy Bonderman's return, Miner won't even stay in the rotation.

Paul Maholm
The Case: Solid opener in St. Louis saw Maholm work 6 2/3 innings and only allow 1 earned run.
The Verdict: quasi-Stud
The Rationale: He'll be helpful in WHIP and ERA this season, but his wins and strikeouts won't be plentiful.

Edwin Jackson
The Case: The bullpen blew a gem for Jackson. He gave up only a solo home run in 7 1/3 innings -- and that was in the eighth when he was tiring.
The Verdict: Stud
The Rationale: We loved him before the season, and this outing does nothing but reinforce said love. The only problem is the bullpen sucks.

David Purcey
The Case: Limited the Tigers to 2 earned runs and 5 hits in 7 innings.
The Verdict: Shelton, for now
The Rationale: Last year was the first season he succeeded in the minors, so I'm expecting growing pains along the way in the majors. He'll have outings like these, but also get shelled by the AL East several times.

Ricky Romero
The Case: Outworked touted Porcello, by hurling 6 innings and only allowing 2 runs. He struck out 5.
The Verdict: Shelton
The Rationale: I just can't get on board yet. He's pitching in the offensively-loaded AL East and never found huge success in the minors.

Jarrod Washburn
The Case: Eight innings of shutout ball against the Twins had us thinking it was 2002.
The Verdict: big-time Shelton
The Rationale: Too bad it's 2009. He doesn't strike out near enough hitters to justify carrying his destined to be 4.75 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

Glen Perkins
The Case: He deserved a win, but his offense was stymied by Washburn. He scattered 5 hits and only allowed 1 run in 8 innings.
The Verdict: quasi-Stud
The Rationale: He's not this good, but he's going to have a solid season and is worth using in AL-Only leagues. The problem is his lack of strikeouts.

Kyle Davies
The Case: In 7 shutout innings, he struck out 8 White Sox, only allowing 3 hits.
The Verdict: Stud
The Rationale: Yeah, I'm gonna go out on a limb here. He was once a solid prospect for the Braves but lost his way. Still, he's only 25 and coming off a 4-1, 2.27 September. He has good strikeout potential, and the AL Central isn't exactly loaded with offense.

Wandy Rodriguez
The Case: He shut the Cubs down for 6 innings (4 hits and 1 earned run).
The Verdict: Stud
The Rationale: We already liked Wandy coming into the season, and handling the Cubs' offense is a good sign. He still needs to learn to pitch on the road, but at age 30 it's about time.

Ross Ohlendorf
The Case: Held down the Cardinals for a bit, but was outpitched by Chris Carpenter (no shame in that).
The Verdict: Shelton
The Rationale: Just can't buy it yet. Definitely keep your eyes on him in huge NL-Only leagues, though, because he's shown the ability to have superb control.

Is there a player you want examined for Stud or Shelton? Let us know, and we'll tackle him in the next installment.

Stud or Shelton? After 1 Start ... originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 10 Apr 2009 11:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Corey Hart's Torrid Spring Comes With a Dangerous Caveat

Knox Bardeen — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 13:29:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Stud or Shelton

If you haven't been keeping up with statistics from Spring Training games, Corey Hart would like you to start. Well, at least he'd like you to look at most of them.

Prior to Monday's games, Hart leads all spring hitters with 41 total bases. He's blasted five home runs, seven doubles and is 19-45 for a .422 batting average in 16 games. Add to that his three stolen bases and Hart would seem to be cruising on all cylinders as he gets ready to burn in 2009.

Before we anoint Hart with unprecedented accolades, let's take a look at a few of the problems he faced last year.

Sure, Corey Hart is a 20/20 outfielder, and that's valuable. But Hart hurt his team by not getting on base as much as he should. He finished the season with a very low .300 on-base percentage, mainly due to a high strike out rate of 17.8% and a low walk rate of 4.2%. Hart is a free swinger. He swings at 54.7% of the pitches he sees. Worse than that is that 31.7% of the pitches he swings at are outside of the strike zone.

Now, let's look at the statistic that Hart doesn't want you to know about.

Even though Hart is tearing the cover off of the ball, he still has 13 strikeouts in 45 at-bats. I'll do the math for you. His strikeout rate is 28.8%. His three walks give him a 6.6% walk, which is higher than last season, but still not what you would want to see out of a hitter with this kind of speed.

Until Hart brings his strikeout rate down and brings his walk rate up he's never going to realize his full potential of a 30/30 type hitter. And even though he worked extra-hard in the off-season to begin achieving offensive numbers that everyone expects, he's still fanning way too much.

"I was excited to get back out there," Hart said. "I'm trying to put together good at-bats after the way I finished last year. I've been working extra hard to come out strong and give everybody confidence I can be the guy they want me to be."

You just can't discount these kind of spring numbers from Hart. His average draft position of 53.70 puts him in the 5th round of mixed-leagues. A 20/20 guy with upside and great spring numbers has to be selected in that general area. He's making great things happen when he does make contact. Without the strikeouts, he's an All-Star.

Just know one thing... if his strikeout rate resembles last season's or worse yet looks like his spring rate, he's going to be in for a few rocky months. Remember what he did last year in the final month of the season (He hit .173/.192/.245 with zero home runs) and think of that kind of stretch a few times in '09.

Ouch!

Corey Hart's Torrid Spring Comes With a Dangerous Caveat originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 23 Mar 2009 13:29:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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