Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse

Roto Rush: Where Chris Davis Is the Taterjack Equivalent of Disappointment

Will Brinson — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:12:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Locking Your Lineup, MLB Slump or Suck

Poppin' out the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.

"Taterjack" is a term I like to employ for a "home run." I find it to be awesome. Nearly as awesome as I found Chris Davis, the power-swinging, Texas Rangers first basemen ... before the season. But news hit the proverbial fan yesterday that Davis had been demoted and that he would no longer be on the Rangers' big league team.

This is highly problematic for fantasy owners who wasted used a high pick (and, invariably, it was high) on Davis: because he doesn't seem likely to get a lot more opportunity in the Rangers lineup. This is true for a number of reasons. First, he stinks. Second, Justin Smoak is the minors and probably ahead of Davis on the "track to the bigs" now. Additionally, Hank Blalock is playing first base. And, finally, the Rangers need pitching.

All of those things combine to form a distinct notion that we may have seen the last of Mr. Davis in a Rangers uniform. Which in fantasy terms means ... drop him! Yes, you can drop Chris Davis from your fantasy team, or at least should; I'm one of those stupid, stubborn owners who having traded Scott Baker for Davis before the season even started, won't let go of the guy just because a) my team stinks (thanks Brandon Webb) and b) I can't deal with watching Davis hit 20 homers in the second half of the season for the owner who originally drafted him.

The good news for you, though, is that such a thing ain't happening. So cut him loose and move on with your life. Smoak is on his way too, so if you have room available to wait (or Davis was just wasting a bench spot) on a guy, make it for him.

Bits From the Box Scores
o. Nate McLouth hit his 13th home run (and this one's with the Braves) as Atlanta lost to the Nationals. Sigh. Derek Lowe is now 7-7, and while the team only provided him three runs, you have to wonder if that's the signifying game that makes the Braves either "sellers" or "non-buyers" at the deadline.

o. In quasi-bizarre home run news, Adam Lind hit his 18th and Aaron Hill hit his 20th for the Blue Jays last night. They still lost because the Yankees' offense can't be stopped. Lind's isn't as crazy but Hill with 20 already? Como se dice "sell high"?

o. Of course, that offense was the same thing that helped Joba Chamberlain from looking really stupid (again) at home: he's now 0-2 with nine games started at home, walking 25 in 42 IP while striking out 41 and posting a 5.36 ERA. We know that New Yankee Stadium is a home-run-friendly park, but it might be time to make Joba a "start on the road only" guy until further notice.

- Matt Wieters hit his third home run last night. Woo. Wieters. Thanks. A lot. Guy. As I've mentioned earlier, Wieters wasn't guaranteed a hot start, and while he hasn't been "horrible" per se, he hasn't been tearing the cover off the ball either; buy low, kids.

- Ricky Nolasco posted another measty outing yesterday; the Marlins' pitcher K'd 12 as he recorded his fourth straight win and sixth straight start without allowing more than two earned runs (the shortest of which was five innings at Boston, four of which have been at least seven innings long). He's sitting squarely in must-start territory at this point.

- Andre Ethier homered for the second time in five games, which coincides nicely with the return of Manny Ramirez. It seems folly to state that his numbers will go up simply because Man-Ram returns, but, um, they went down when my dreadlock'd buddy left, didn't they? I'd say you're probably looking at your last chance to sell high on a guy who was staring a breakout year in the face before he lost his lineup protection.

- Rick Porcello's downward slide continued Sunday, as he's now allowed 31 hits in his last four starts while posting only nine strikeouts; not great numbers. Also, he's 1-2 in that span and hasn't gone longer than 5.2 innings. Many owners may be thinking "BAIL!" but I say now's a prime time to grab the youngster in a deal and stash him on your bench.

The Afflicted: Randy Johnson's injury is already well documented by our superb MLB team. I suggest you read the bad news over at the Starting Five.

The Demoted: See: Above. I hope Chris Davis finds himself in a very uncomfortable place. Like the back of a Volkswagon.

Lineup Lock Time:
1:00 PM ET, which is kind of cool but kind of annoying. After all, early baseball on Monday = awesomeness. However, not having until 7 PM to pick out my starters always kind of sucks. Whatevs.

Tuesday's Ace in the Hole:
Scott Baker. Why? Because there are tons of big names pitching already. Oh, also, he's against the Yankees so he shouldn't pitch well, right? But I think it's fitting that because I traded Davis for Baker that in the Roto Rush where I bash Davis, he'll pitch well. Tread with caution but I expect a win and six K's, maybe two earned over six innings.

Roto Rush: Where Chris Davis Is the Taterjack Equivalent of Disappointment originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:12:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Cram Session: Manny's Return, J-Roll's Flaw and A-Rod's Troubles

Tom Herrera — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 20:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Injury Report, MLB Slump or Suck, MLB Waiver Wire, Podcasts

Manny Ramirez is in Albuquerque, Jimmy Rollins isn't stealing bases, and Alex Rodriguez's batting average resembles 2008 Craig Counsell. Top picks have disappointed and the fantasy baseball world has been turned upside down by injuries (Thanks, Dice-K!). Knox Bardeen and I try to sort through the madness in this week's cram session. Check out the podcast after the jump.

Listen to the podcast above or click here to download mp3.

Fantasy Cram Session: Manny's Return, J-Roll's Flaw and A-Rod's Troubles originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 24 Jun 2009 20:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Cram Session: Injuries, Slumps and Prospects, Oh My!

Tom Herrera — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 18:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Injury Report, MLB Kids Are Alright, MLB Slump or Suck, Podcasts

What should we expect from injury-ridden Josh Hamilton and Carlos Quentin? David Ortiz is showing signs of life, but is it real? And why should catcher Carlos Santana, center, be on your list of prospects to watch? All those questions are answered, and more, as Knox Bardeen and I discuss key injuries, slumping stars, and young talent in a fantasy cram session. Listen to the podcast after the jump.

Click here to listen to the podcast or with below player.

Fantasy Baseball Cram Session: Injuries, Slumps and Prospects, Oh My! originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 12 Jun 2009 18:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Roto Rush: Is David Ortiz Ready to Explode Onto the Scene?

Knox Bardeen — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 12:55:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Injury Report, MLB Locking Your Lineup, MLB Slump or Suck

Poppin' out of the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.

There are soooo many things to argue about in the world of fantasy baseball these days. It felt like we waited forever to get our hands on Matt Wieters. Now we have to ask did we get ahold of him too soon? If Robinson Cano is going to hit .300 in the first half, what can we expect from his normally mega-productive second half? But, the argument that I want to touch on today, and I won't be able to hit all of the points in this short space, is about Big Papi. Do you buy low on David Ortiz right now or can you actually sell him high at this point?

The struggles of David Ortiz this season have been well documented. It wasn't until May 20th that he hit his first home run and except for his first two games of the season where he went 1-for-3, Ortiz has never seen his batting average spike above .237. It currently sits at .198.

There are, however, signs of life coming from Ortiz at the plate. He blasted his third home run of the season last night and has six hits over his last 19 at-bats, including a seven game hitting streak. For those of you looking to sell high on the slugger, you should start with those figures. You should also mention that his 25.7% hit rate is well below his career mark of 30.7% and when that normalizes, his batting average is sure to rise.

If you plan to take the flip side of this proverbial coin and attempt to buy low on Ortiz, here's a few things you need to know.

Ortiz is striking out at an amazing rate. His 27.2% strikeout rate is the highest it's been since he joined the Red Sox in 2003. He's also walking at an alarmingly reduced rate. His walk rate of 10.6% is also the lowest it's been since he joined the Red Sox. Anytime a hitter increases his strikeout rate and reduces his walk rate over an extended period of time, nastiness ensues.

With inter-league play getting ready to kick back up again, the Red Sox are struggling with what to do with Ortiz. His .198 batting average isn't begging management to sit Youkilis or Lowell in favor of Ortiz at first base. With all of those inter-league games coming, if Ortiz is relegated to spot starting and pinch hitting he's not going to be a lot of use to fantasy GM's. And that limited playing time might also keep him from really breaking out of the slump he's currently in.

Whatever you think might be the best course of action for your fantasy plans for David Ortiz, you may want to consider putting the plan into effect soon. Inter-league plays starts again this weekend.

Bits From the Box Scores
- Ichiro Suzuki went 2-for-4 last night in the Mariners loss and has hit safely in 30 of his last 31 games dating back to May 6th. Over the last month his .402/.437/.554 slash stats are impressive, to say the least.

- Has anyone else noticed that the Orioles have occasionally been slipping Adam Jones into the number three slot in the lineup and moving Nick Markakis to the two hole? O's manager Dave Trembley says it's just to break up the left-handed bats in the lineup, but if you'll look at the stats for the three studs at the front of the Orioles lineup, Jones is the only one still hitting above .300. I don't need to tell you of the negative repercussions moving to the number two slot permanently will have on Markakis or the benefits to Adam Jones' stats of hitting in the three hole, do I?

- Brad Bergesen threw eight innings of shutout baseball last night to earn his third victory of the season. He also struck out six while walking none. Even more impressive are his numbers over his last three starts. In 23 innings of work he's 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. He's not a massive source of strikeouts, but won't that sub-two ERA fit in nicely with your fantasy staff? Bergesen is only owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues.

- Willie Bloomquist swiped three bases last night and now has 11 steals on the season. For the season he's batting .292, but only .214 over the last month.

- Ben Zobrist hit his 12th ding-dong of the season last night, which is more than sluggers Carlos Lee, Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera have hit in 2009.

- If Josh Beckett were Dikembe Mutombo he would have been wagging his finger at the Yankees last night saying "no runs, no wins for you guys". Beckett allowed the Bronx Bombers only one hit last night as he threw six scoreless innings and sent eight batters home via the "K" train. Oh, and he may have figured out just how to pitch to Mark Teixeira. You walk him!

- After last night, Andrew McCutchen now has hit safely in five of the six major league games he's playing in during his short career. Talk about hitting the ground running...

- Brandon Morrow threw 2.1 innings last night in relief, but those may be his last relief innings of the season. He's headed to Triple-A Tacoma to be converted back into a starting pitcher.

- Aaron Hill hit his 14th home run of the year last night. Do you remember when he was a slap-hitting middle infielder? Neither do I. Maybe 2008 was the anomaly and not 2007.

- Is Miguel Tejada really hitting .357 this season. He went 2-for-4 last night. And, the answer is "Yes, he is!".

- Welcome to 2009 Mike Fontenot. I drafted you as a late round, middle infield power producer and you've been a disappointment thus far. Maybe your home run last night and your .364 batting average over the last week are your way of saying sorry and you'll do better for me moving forward.

- Rockies pitcher Jason Hammel struck out five in his six innings of work last night to earn the victory. If you take out the shelling the Padres (yes, I said Padres) laid on him on May 30th, he'd be 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA over his last three starts. Include the Padres game and Hammel has a 3.97 ERA over his last four starts.

- Troy Tulowitzki is showing signs of life. Over the last week he's batting .357 with a 1.043 OPS. He's available in 27% of Yahoo! leagues and could be a nice sleeper pick up for those of you high risk / high reward gambling types.

The Afflicted: Remember to go grab Ryan Madson in your fantasy league to fill in for Brad Lidge while he's on the disabled list. Lidge will be out until the end of June, at least. The Rays could sure use the help of Jason Bartlett. He hopes to be back within a week to lend a hand. White Sox prospect Aaron Poreda was promoted to take the place of Bartolo Colon, who's headed to the disabled list with knee issues. Jesse Litsch could be out for the next 18 months as he's about to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Lineup Lock Time: You've got until 7:05 PM ET before ballpark lights brighten the sky all over the eastern seaboard.

Major League Baseball Draft News: We finally know who the number one pick in the First Year Player's Draft is. Yesterday, the Nationals ended months of anticipation by selecting Stephen Strasburg. No, he's not fantasy relevant. But, wait until we argue about that in the off-season moving forward towards the 2010 season.

Thursday's Ace in the Hole: I honestly never expected to name Jamie Moyer as my Ace in the Hole for this section. The guy's like 137 years old and his record leaves a lot to be desired at 4-5 with a 6.27 ERA. But, and you knew there was a but, he and the Phillies hitters are facing Tim Redding tomorrow and that always leads to home run fireworks and home plate celebrations. Moyer, rightfully so, is only owned in 9% of Yahoo! leagues but has a great chance of victory on Thursday.

Roto Rush: Is David Ortiz Ready to Explode Onto the Scene? originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 10 Jun 2009 12:55:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Better Bounces and Higher Averages in Store for These 5 Hitters

Knox Bardeen — Thu, 28 May 2009 14:15:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Slump or Suck

Hitters go into slumps for many reasons. Fatigue or an injury could be plaguing the player. Diminishing skills or a technical problem with they're swing could be factors. Or maybe the hitter is just facing a bit of bad luck.

Two statistics to look at when trying to determine why a hitter's batting average is slumping are hit rate (H%) and contact rate (ct%).

A players hit rate (also known as BABIP for Batting Average on Balls In Play) is a measure of how many of the players batted balls, that do not result in home runs, fall for base hits. Basically any fair ball that isn't a dinger gets looked at when calculating hit rate. It is calculated as (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR).

A players contact rate is simply how often he makes contact with the ball. Obviously the more often a batter makes contact the more chances he'll have in collecting base hits. It is calculated as (AB-K)/AB.

If a players' batting average is abnormally low, take a look at contact rate and hit rate to see if the problem lies there. If his hit rate is low and his contact rate is high, he may just be suffering from bad luck like flares that aren't dropping or grounds balls that just never find a hole in the infield.

Here are five players who fit that bill.

Brian Giles, Padres - Giles has hit safely in each of his last five games but is still mired with a terrible .190 batting average. His career mark is .292, so this is highly unusual. Giles has a contact rate of 87.7% and an extremely low hit rate of 20.6%. With a career hit rate of 29.8% you can see that Giles is suffering badly from balls not falling his way. If he keeps his contact rate up where it is, when his hit rate normalizes his batting average should make a huge jump.

Carlos Quentin, White Sox - Quentin is dealing with a nasty case of plantar fasciitis which is a huge reason he's batting .212 over the last month. But a 20.8% hit rate while making contact 87% of the time means that his season long .229 batting average is due for a jump when his hit rate normalizes and his foot heals.

Garrett Atkins, Rockies - Atkins has a career hit rate of 31.4%. Over the past three years that figure has been at 32.6%. It's safe to reason that Atkins' .195 batting average this season might be driven by a low 21.1% hit rate. He's making contact this season 85.1% of the time, it's just his batted balls aren't falling for base hits. Soon they will.

Jose Lopez, Mariners - Lopez is hitting an insane amount of fly balls this season (46.2%, up from 35.6% last year) which is causing some of his batting average woes as fly balls are easily caught and tend to turn into base hits less frequently than line drives or ground balls. Another reason Lopez is hitting .216 might be because of his 23.3% hit rate. If Lopez keeps making contact with the ball 87.5% of the time, his hit rate should normalize back up towards his career 28.8% mark. And that'll bring his batting average up when it does.

Coco Crisp, Royals - Crisp is striking out less and walking more this season compared to 2008. These two things should be causing him great success at the plate. Instead, he's batting a paltry .233. He's making contact 88.3% of the time which tells me that when he hits the ball he's hitting it right at, or close to a fielder. When his low hit rate of 24.8% starts rising towards his career mark of 30.9% his batting average should take off. Anyone with an 88.3% contact rate and a 14.2% walk rate like Crisp should be a candidate to bat .300. A hit rate adjustment could mean just that for Crisp.

Better Bounces and Higher Averages in Store for These 5 Hitters originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 28 May 2009 14:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Ervin Santana's Slow Start No Precursor

Matt Snyder — Wed, 27 May 2009 14:45:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Slump or Suck

Ervin Santana missed the first five weeks of the baseball season after a breakthrough 2008 campaign. Since his return, owners have been "rewarded" with an 0-2 record, 7.82 ERA and an atrocious 2.13 WHIP. This isn't exactly what fantasy owners who patiently waited on his return had in mind.

Santana went 16-7 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.12 WHIP last season. He struck out 214 batters in 219 innings pitched. The 25-year-old finished sixth in Cy Young voting. Thus, heading into his prime, he should have been ready to build upon the stellar work. Instead, he's slumping (or does he suck?).

First of all, I think it's too early to judge Santana. Remember, he was coming off an injury in his pitching arm and he's only had three starts. Angels manager Mike Scioscia insists Santana is healthy, and I believe him. More likely, Santana's just building up his strength like the last few weeks of spring training for first week of the regular season. This line of thinking was echoed by a scout who informed FanHouse's Jeff Fletcher of his early findings on Santana. To summarize what the scout told Fletcher:

- Santana's velocity has been down across the board, which not only affects his powerful fastball, but also his biting slider. Neither has been near as effective this season so far.

- He hasn't used his change-up much [ed. note: which probably correlates to his loss in velocity, meaning it wouldn't be as effective anyway].

- Despite the loss in velocity and overall stuff, Santana has shown that he's learning how to pitch -- this is in specific reference to his second start -- in terms of changing speeds, locations and keeping his slider down in the zone.

- When his velocity comes back, it is the opinion of this scout he'll be the exact same pitcher as last season.

What I take from this report is that you can expect even better things from Santana when he gets his strength back. Learning to pitch without stuff and then rediscovering stuff is a deadly combination. Let the rest of the AL West be put on notice.

Santana's next start is against the Mariners, who are dead-last in the American League in runs scored and have a nice set of windmills -- like Russell Branyan, Franklin Gutierrez and Adrian Beltre -- in the lineup. The stage is set for a big breakout outing.

Ervin Santana is simply starting the season in a slump. If you don't own him and his owner has grown frustrated and mistakenly believes Ervin sucks, it sounds like the perfect time to pull off a fantasy felony. That, my friends, is how you win leagues.

Ervin Santana's Slow Start No Precursor originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 27 May 2009 14:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Left-Handed Duo Sucks -- Or Slumping?

Matt Snyder — Thu, 21 May 2009 13:30:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Slump or Suck

Scott Kazmir and Francisco Liriano have quite a few things in common at this point. Both are left-handed. Both are 25 years-old. For our purposes, both came into the 2009 season with fairly lofty expectations in fantasy baseball. Both were top-20 starting pitchers in pretty much every mixed league.

Unfortunately for the two -- and their fantasy owners -- they now have something else in common: Immense struggles in the early going. Kazmir has managed to squeak out a 4-3 record, but his ERA (6.97) and WHIP (1.86) are horrible. Liriano is a bit better in those categories (5.21 and 1.37), but his 2-4 record makes him equally as helpful as Kaz to this point. Let's breakdown each guy in slump or suck style.

Scott Kazmir

Here are his ERAs the past four full seasons: 3.77, 3.24, 3.48 and 3.49. Thus, his awful beginning appears that it should simply normalize and everything will be fine. In fact, it looks like he's a buy-low candidate, no? Not so fast. He's velocity is down and command is severely lacking. The former can kill the productivity of a power pitcher -- which Kazmir is -- and the latter makes it near impossible to avoid excessive walks and mistake pitches. You can see it in the numbers. His career hits per 9 innings is 8.3 and it's all the way up to 11.3 this year. His walks per 9 innings are up over 1 per. Meanwhile, his strikeout rates are a career low and it's not even close. Hitters are going .338 on balls in play (BABIP), but they posted a .337 mark in 2007 when he posted a 3.48 ERA and allowed only 8.5 hits per 9 innings.

It's reasonable to question the health of Kazmir. He's battled injuries throughout his early career and he wouldn't simply lose 4-5 miles per hour off his fastball as a 25-year-old. If he's not reported to be hurt sometime within the next two weeks and he doesn't have a resurrection of his velocity and command, we can declare that he sucks for this season. We waited all year in 2008 for Justin Verlander, and he killed owners all season. Now, it's important to note that Kazmir has worlds of talent and he could easily bounce-back next season -- or whenever his arm recovers. For now, I have to say he sucks and should be avoided in yearly fantasy leagues because he really looks like this year's version of Verlander. If he is, don't forget about him on draft day next year. Look at what Verlander is doing this season.

Francisco Liriano

Liriano was actually way worse a few weeks ago when he was 0-4 with a 7.06 ERA. Since then, he's 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA. Still, he's walked 13 batters in only 25 innings during that stretch. It's a bad sign, but it's good that he's stopped getting hit so hard. He's a over a year removed from his return from a bad arm injury, but it's possible he's still having trouble finding a comfort zone. We know the talent, and when his numbers start to take a good turn, that means he's inching closer.

It looks like the early struggles for Liriano were just a slump and he's starting to break out of it. How long it takes before he meets expectations, though, is anyone's guess -- because they are sky-high. I still wouldn't blame anyone for jumping ship, though I'd rather trade for him due to his ceiling (unless you are expecting a repeat of his sensational 2006 season, because that's never happening again).

Left-Handed Duo Sucks -- Or Slumping? originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 21 May 2009 13:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Big Papi's Anguish Has Many Faces

Tom Herrera — Fri, 15 May 2009 16:55:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Injury Report, MLB Sleepers, MLB Slump or Suck

I'd say the photo collection above accurately sums up David Ortiz's season so far. It hit rock bottom on Thursday as the Red Sox slugger (?) went 0-for-7 with three strikeouts, and left ... wait for it ... 12 men on base (Update: Ortiz was benched Friday night against the Mariners). On the Big Papi scale, this is a slump of appalling proportions. He's homer-less in his last 144 at-bats, one shy of his career-worst drought between 1998 and 2000. Is it time for fantasy owners to cut their losses with Ortiz?

First, we have to examine the bright side of things, with help of some advanced statistics from The Hardball Times. Despite the brutal batting average (.208), he's smacked 10 doubles, knocked in 15 runs and walked 20 times. His ground ball percentage (26.9) is significantly lower than past seasons, so it's not like he's just beating balls into the dirt. And his line drive percentage sits at 21.2 percent, which is higher than it's been since 2005.

One of the real culprits appears to be his IF/F rate, or the percentage of fly balls he's hitting that are infield flies. Over the past few years of his career, Ortiz's IF/F rate has stayed below 10 percent. This year, it's an abnormal 16.7 percent. We can look at this in two ways: either his bat speed has dropped off a cliff, or he's pressing and connecting too much the top half of the bat. I think it's a little bit of both.

Expecting the David Ortiz of 2007 to reappear is unrealistic. But it's also unrealistic to believe he's suddenly become worthless in the power department after hitting 23 jacks in 416 at-bats last year. Expletives and all, this is still a man with 20-plus homer pop in his bat. It's just been rather painful to watch him find it again.

Bits From the Box Scores:
o. Encouraging season debut for Ervin Santana following his DL stint. Command was shaky, but he tossed five innings of three-run ball and struck out five. It'll get better as he progresses. John Lackey is also returning this weekend.

o. Jimmy Rollins was back in the leadoff spot and went 1-for-5, dropping his batting average to .200. So much for that short-lived lineup experiment by Charlie Manuel. Obviously buy low on Rollins.

o. If you're looking for solid middle relievers to help minimize your damage, the Dodgers are getting some great early efforts from R&R -- Ronald Belisario (3.05 ERA, 22 strikeouts) and Ramon Troncoso (1.99 ERA, 0.88 WHIP).

o. First stolen base of the season for Marlins rookie Chris Coghlan. I think we'll see many more from him.

o. Dave Bush's last three starts: 3.00 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 18:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 21 innings. I'm not a huge fan due to his high home run rate, but he's sitting on the waiver wire in too many leagues.

o. Ryan Dempster's last three starts: 3.54 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 21:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 20 1/3 innings. The ERA should dip below 4.00 by the All-Star break.

o. From Knox Bardeen's popular Twitter feed: "Wow. Verlander's last 4 starts: 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA. In 29 1/3 innings of work he's struck out 44 and given up only 16 hits." Yeah, and he was one of our five guys to win your league.

o. Another home run for Chris Davis, 10 total in 117 at-bats. Strikeouts are still high, but he's batting .298 in May. As Matt Snyder said back in the beginning of April, "he most certainly does not suck."

o. Over his last four games, the underrated Adrian Gonzalez has hit five out of the park, predictably all on the road. Eleven of his 14 homers this season have come in road games.

o. Not predictably, the Cubs are getting big RBI production from 31-year-old Bobby Scales as a fill-in for Aramis Ramirez. He's shown 15-20 homer pop in the minors, so roll with him in NL-only leagues.

o. Speedsters who are red hot this month: Michael Bourn (.389 average and seven swipes) and Willy Taveras (.393 and five).

o. Speaking of speed to burn, the Mets stole a franchise-record seven bases against the Giants, including four from David Wright out of the fifth spot and even one from Gary Sheffield. There's a good chance the Mets stay active on the base paths with Carlos Delgado out of the lineup, and Sheffield should continue to get at-bats.

Weekend Aces in the Hole: For Saturday, Chicago's Sean Marshall (1-2, 4.06 ERA) faces the Astros and Arizona's Max Scherzer (0-3, 3.98 ERA) gets the Braves. On Sunday, Koji Uehara (2-3, 4.01 ERA) vs. the Royals and Mike Pelfrey (4-0, 4.89 ERA) vs. the Giants are both strong plays. I also like Armando Galarraga (3-3, 4.61 ERA) to bounce back against the A's.

Down on the Farm: Right-handed hurler Kris Medlen was smoking down in the minors with a 0.96 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 37 1/3 innings. Now the Braves are calling him up to start in place of Jo-Jo Reyes on Tuesday night. We've been harping a lot about Tommy Hanson, but Medlen is well worth snagging in NL-only leagues and very deep mixed ones.

Big Papi's Anguish Has Many Faces originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 15 May 2009 16:55:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Slump or Suck: Alexei Ramirez

Matt Snyder — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 12:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Slump or Suck

Alexei Ramirez was a popular commodity on fantasy baseball draft day. Due to his eligibility at both second base and shortstop, in addition to his power/speed combination and attractive-to-many age (27), "The Cuban Missile" was flying off the draft boards before the middle rounds.

After seven games of incredibly minimal returns, his owners must be getting a bit antsy. They didn't pay a hefty price tag for a .160 average with no home runs or stolen bases. He's struck out 7 times in only 25 at-bats -- after only doing so 61 times last year in 480 at-bats.

So, does Alexei suck now?

In a word: No. That's ridiculous, and anyone who is panicking over this start is the embodiment of a fantasy football player trying to play fantasy baseball. The White Sox have played 7 of their 162 games this season. Remember, you are in a marathon, not a sprint. Patience is a virtue.

As for Alexei Ramirez, well, we've seen this before. Last season, he was only hitting .114 through his first 15 games. He had the same goose-egg in both steals and home runs. He had struck out 6 times in only 35 at-bats. He wasn't playing full-time, but many of the appearances were in less than perfect weather. As things stand this season, the White Sox haven't played a game in warm weather yet this season. Having come from playing in Cuba his entire life, it's entirely possible Ramirez just isn't adjusted to playing in the cold yet.

As things currently stand, the White Sox head to Tampa -- yes, I know they play in St. Petersburg, but they are the Tampa Bay Rays -- this weekend. The Rays do have stout pitching, but there's a good chance Alexei gets himself back into the groove.

If not, just be patient. He hit .305 with 20 home runs, 71 RBI, 58 runs and 12 steals in his last 108 starts last season.

He's just in an early season slump. If you can find an owner of his who is ready to jump ship, it's time to steal him via fantasy felony.

Slump or Suck: Alexei Ramirez originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 16 Apr 2009 12:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Early Season Busts: 4 Hitters Who Aren't Paying Dividends

Knox Bardeen — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 11:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Slump or Suck

It's total mayhem in the fantasy baseball world right now. We have young outfielders with real 20/20 potential being sent to the minors in Washington, starting pitchers are dropping like flies to injuries, and a certain outfielder/first baseman in New York has the best ERA of any pitcher in the Yankees bullpen.

I may be screaming "the sky is falling" a little too prematurely, but fantasy owners are truly worried that some of their very high draft choices aren't performing. Let's take a look at some of the early round hitters who are having slow starts and try to figure a few things out.

Ryan Braun, Brewers - Drafted in the first round in many cases, Braun hasn't given back first round hitting thus far in '09. He's mired in a 6-30 slump right now and worst of all has a .267 slugging percentage. With zero home runs and only two RBI, fantasy GM's who own Braun are anxiously awaiting Ryan to pick up the good lumber. Don't worry too much about this slow start. Braun's contact rate isn't too far from normal at 73.3% (his contact rate last season was 78.9%) but his on-base percentage is good. That tells me that he's not striking out too much more than normal and he's walking a lot more (read: a rise in plate discipline). His hit rate of 27.3% is also 35 points lower than normal meaning he's due for some better luck. When that happens and he gets his contact rate back up, he could show us something really special if he continues walking like he's done in these first few games.

Jimmy Rollins, Phillies - You only have to look at monthly split stats from Rollins last season to know that he's an extremely streaky hitter. He hit .298 in May last season and .217 the following month. He hit 12 doubles in May, but only four in June. Unfortunately for Rollins, he's started 2009 in one of his slow streaks. He's 4-33 and even worse than his .121 batting average through seven games is his zero stolen bases. But it's hard to steal lots of bases when you're only getting on base 17.1% of the time. You're just going to have to wait Rollins out if you have him on your fantasy team. If you don't take a flier and offer a trade to the owner who is tired of his batting woes. Maybe the other GM isn't aware that Rollins is suffering from a very unlucky 14.8% hit rate right now.

Lance Berkman, Astros - Do you remember last season when Berkman had 17 home runs and ten stolen bases by the end of May? Well, he's not exploding into 2009 quite like he did last year. He only has one home run, two RBI and hasn't stolen a base in his first seven games. A 20% hit rate could be the culprit, but let's not jump on the unlucky bandwagon quite yet. Berkman's early season woes are mainly due to his inability to make contact with the ball. He has struck out eight times in 24 at-bats, and that 33.3% strikeout rate is massively higher then his career 19.9% rate. Flailing less while at bat is the key to end Berkman's early season slump.

David Ortiz, Red Sox - Finding the reasons for Big Papi's slow start aren't as easy as say the Easter egg hunt you took your kids on last weekend. There are arguments that he's still nursing an injury or that maybe he misses hitting in front of Manny Ramirez. Whatever the reason, he's hitting .172 and has a slugging percentage that's equally miserable. He's striking out a bit more than usual at 24.1% and he is a bit unlucky with a 22.1% hit rate, but Papi is the player on this list I am most worried about. He doesn't look to be in great shape and with the many reasons listed above, you may conclude that he will never return to his past glory. Too bad for you folks that have Ortiz on your fantasy squad. You're not going to be able to trade him for any real value and you can't cut him. Ride it out guys.

Early Season Busts: 4 Hitters Who Aren't Paying Dividends originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 15 Apr 2009 11:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Slump or Suck? Chien-Ming Wang

Matt Snyder — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 13:30:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Slump or Suck

Monday evening, Chien-Ming Wang fantasy baseball owners were put through the ringer for the second consecutive outing. This time, however, it was worse than the first time around. He lasted only 1 inning against the Rays, allowing 6 hits, 8 earned runs, three walks and a hit batsman. He did manage a strikeout, so there's that.

All told, Wang owners are looking at a 28.93 ERA and a 4.50 WHIP with a solitary strikeout in two simply disastrous starts. There isn't even enough language to describe how unbelievably bad Wang has been. Only Brian Moehler has been comparable in futility thus far, and he's not considered fantasy relevant.

So is this simply a slump, or does Wang suck?

In order to arrive at a conclusion, we must examine everything. First of all, Wang is coming off a foot injury. It's possible that's affecting his performance, but that doesn't seem likely. He's been recovered for quite some time. He threw 21 2/3 innings in the spring and showed no lingering ill effects from the injury.

He did give up 25 hits and 10 earned runs (4.15 ERA) in those spring innings, so it's not like he was overly sharp considering the competition.

Going back to last year, Wang wasn't exactly setting the fantasy world on fire. It's easy to grasp onto that 8-2 record and think he was one of the best pitchers in the league, but let's look deeper. He was on his way to his worst ERA and WHIP seasons of his career. His 4.07 ERA was just a touch above league average and the 1.32 WHIP is simply not acceptable from a guy who only strikes out 5 men per every 9 innings.

Last season, he also put together a handful of bad outings. He allowed at least 5 runs on five different occasions, including a woeful four-start stretch from May 18 to June 5 where he compiled an 8.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. He only took the ball twice more before his season ended in injury. The point is, he was already regressing before our very eyes.

In 2006 and 2007, Wang provided 19 wins while also helping in ERA and WHIP, so you could forgive the strikeout deficiency. He seems to be trending to the point where that's no longer the case. He may be only 29 years-old and have only made two starts in 2009, but let's have a little foresight here. Are you willing to sacrifice strikeouts while risking serious shots to ERA and WHIP with the hope he'll win a few games?

Verdict: For the near future in fantasy baseball, he sucks. Sorry, the risk simply isn't worth the reward.

Slump or Suck? Chien-Ming Wang originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Tue, 14 Apr 2009 13:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Slump or Suck? Chris Davis

Matt Snyder — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 14:25:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Slump or Suck

Chris Davis was everyone's sweetheart in fantasy baseball draft season, and rightfully so. As a 22 year-old last year, the slugger burst onto the scene with 17 home runs and 55 RBI in only a half season. His power numbers in the minors provided us with plenty of evidence that this wasn't a fluke. Instead, through six games and 25 plate appearances, Davis has reached base only three times. He's only accrued 1 hit in 22 at-bats. So with that paltry .045 batting average, his owners have been rewarded with 0 home runs and 0 RBI.

Is this a bad omen? Does Davis really suck, or is he simply in an early season swoon?

C'mon. We're going to write him off after just six games? This is actually a perfect example of why I like fantasy baseball a smidgen more than fantasy football. Knee-jerk reactions are much more likely to work when you play 16 games in a season. In baseball, more often than not, they really harm your team in the long run. For every Cliff Lee and Carlos Quentin, you have a lot more Chris Sheltons and Kosuke Fukudomes. Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. You have to win with some proactive foresight, not a reactionary waiver-wire fodder system.

The only problem with Davis is that he could begin to lose at-bats. With Hank Blalock showing power, the Rangers could play him at first base, bench Davis, and use one of their outfielders as the DH if they wish. Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton won't be sitting much, and Marlon Byrd is swinging the bat well. That leaves Andruw Jones -- who went 3-5 with a double in his first game action -- and David Murphy out in the cold. If this futility continues from Davis, there is reason for fear. I believe the Rangers will stick with Davis for at least another two weeks, though, because he has mammoth potential.

As I alluded to in the opening paragraph, Davis' track record in the minors and his first 80 career major league games suggests he's gonna be just fine. In 2007, he hit .297 with 36 home runs and 118 RBI between two different minor league stops and 129 total games. Last season, he hit .333 with 23 home runs and 73 RBI in only 77 minor league games. Team that with his major league totals, and Davis hit 40 bombs last year.

At 6'4", 235, Davis has the size to generate power without fully maximizing his strength. Playing in Texas, he has a notorious home run park for half of his games. He's only 23 years old, so he'll get stronger as the year progresses. Six bad games aren't a huge reason to panic. He had a similar slump last season, but the game isn't as magnified in mid-August when the team isn't in the race. In five games from August 13-17, Davis went 1-18 with no home runs or RBI. He followed that with a 9-game stretch where he hit .371 with 3 home runs and 7 RBI. This is good news because there's a precedent in place of Davis shaking himself out of a slump.

Verdict: That's right, Chris Davis is in a slump. He most certainly does not suck. Let those lemmings in your league rush to replace him with Emilio Bonifacio. They'll be sorry.

Slump or Suck? Chris Davis originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 13 Apr 2009 14:25:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Slump or Suck: Edwin Encarnacion

Matt Snyder — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 17:05:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Slump or Suck

Yeah, it's early. It's so early, in fact, that to call Edwin Encarnacion in a slump is premature. He's only played in three games. In addition to being premature, though, it would be very inaccurate. That's why I wanted to post on his first three games.

You see, I believed -- heading into the season -- Encarnacion was primed for a very solid season. A breakout year, in fact. After three games, you'll see his roto stat-lines are .143 average, 0 runs, 0 home runs, 0 RBI, and 1 stolen base. After watching these three games, I can tell you that he has reiterated my beliefs in a 2009 breakout.

Say what?

Well, one of Encarnacion's problems in development has been his pitch selection. We know he has the talent, but he hasn't always had the plate discipline needed to take the next step. Through three games, he's taken 5 walks and been hit by a pitch. That means that with only one hit -- which came in his last at-bat Thursday -- he sports a stellar .538 on-base percentage. In nearly every plate appearance, he's worked deep into the count, so it's evident he's taken plate discipline seriously and is adjusting his approach. That's a great sign moving forward, especially with some of the weak pitching in their division (Pirates, Astros, Brewers only have a few good starters combined).

Even when he was getting base knocks, he's made good contact for the most part. The best example was in Monday's opener. With the tying run on second base and Sean Green entering in relief, Encarnacion put a serious charge into the ball toward the left-center gap. Daniel Murphy of the Mets made the catch, but this ball was laced. It's an instance where the stat sheet can't tell you the whole story.

So, if I have to say, "slump or suck," I'm obviously saying slump. Edwin definitely doesn't suck. This mini-slump is going to end very soon. Breakout season? Still a go ...

Want a team or player(s) examined in a "more than the box score" fashion? Email us and we'll check them out.

Slump or Suck: Edwin Encarnacion originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 09 Apr 2009 17:05:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments