Poppin' out the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.
"Taterjack" is a term I like to employ for a "home run." I find it to be awesome. Nearly as awesome as I found Chris Davis, the power-swinging, Texas Rangers first basemen ... before the season. But news hit the proverbial fan yesterday that Davis had been demoted and that he would no longer be on the Rangers' big league team.
This is highly problematic for fantasy owners who wasted used a high pick (and, invariably, it was high) on Davis: because he doesn't seem likely to get a lot more opportunity in the Rangers lineup. This is true for a number of reasons. First, he stinks. Second, Justin Smoak is the minors and probably ahead of Davis on the "track to the bigs" now. Additionally, Hank Blalock is playing first base. And, finally, the Rangers need pitching.
Manny Ramirez is in Albuquerque, Jimmy Rollins isn't stealing bases, and Alex Rodriguez's batting average resembles 2008 Craig Counsell. Top picks have disappointed and the fantasy baseball world has been turned upside down by injuries (Thanks, Dice-K!). Knox Bardeen and I try to sort through the madness in this week's cram session. Check out the podcast after the jump.
What should we expect from injury-ridden Josh Hamilton and Carlos Quentin? David Ortiz is showing signs of life, but is it real? And why should catcher Carlos Santana, center, be on your list of prospects to watch? All those questions are answered, and more, as Knox Bardeen and I discuss key injuries, slumping stars, and young talent in a fantasy cram session. Listen to the podcast after the jump.
Poppin' out of the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.
There are soooo many things to argue about in the world of fantasy baseball these days. It felt like we waited forever to get our hands on Matt Wieters. Now we have to ask did we get ahold of him too soon? If Robinson Cano is going to hit .300 in the first half, what can we expect from his normally mega-productive second half? But, the argument that I want to touch on today, and I won't be able to hit all of the points in this short space, is about Big Papi. Do you buy low on David Ortiz right now or can you actually sell him high at this point?
The struggles of David Ortiz this season have been well documented. It wasn't until May 20th that he hit his first home run and except for his first two games of the season where he went 1-for-3, Ortiz has never seen his batting average spike above .237. It currently sits at .198.
Hitters go into slumps for many reasons. Fatigue or an injury could be plaguing the player. Diminishing skills or a technical problem with they're swing could be factors. Or maybe the hitter is just facing a bit of bad luck.
Two statistics to look at when trying to determine why a hitter's batting average is slumping are hit rate (H%) and contact rate (ct%).
A players hit rate (also known as BABIP for Batting Average on Balls In Play) is a measure of how many of the players batted balls, that do not result in home runs, fall for base hits. Basically any fair ball that isn't a dinger gets looked at when calculating hit rate. It is calculated as (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR).
A players contact rate is simply how often he makes contact with the ball. Obviously the more often a batter makes contact the more chances he'll have in collecting base hits. It is calculated as (AB-K)/AB.
Ervin Santana missed the first five weeks of the baseball season after a breakthrough 2008 campaign. Since his return, owners have been "rewarded" with an 0-2 record, 7.82 ERA and an atrocious 2.13 WHIP. This isn't exactly what fantasy owners who patiently waited on his return had in mind.
Santana went 16-7 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.12 WHIP last season. He struck out 214 batters in 219 innings pitched. The 25-year-old finished sixth in Cy Young voting. Thus, heading into his prime, he should have been ready to build upon the stellar work. Instead, he's slumping (or does he suck?).
Scott Kazmir and Francisco Liriano have quite a few things in common at this point. Both are left-handed. Both are 25 years-old. For our purposes, both came into the 2009 season with fairly lofty expectations in fantasy baseball. Both were top-20 starting pitchers in pretty much every mixed league.
Unfortunately for the two -- and their fantasy owners -- they now have something else in common: Immense struggles in the early going. Kazmir has managed to squeak out a 4-3 record, but his ERA (6.97) and WHIP (1.86) are horrible. Liriano is a bit better in those categories (5.21 and 1.37), but his 2-4 record makes him equally as helpful as Kaz to this point. Let's breakdown each guy in slump or suck style.
I'd say the photo collection above accurately sums up David Ortiz's season so far. It hit rock bottom on Thursday as the Red Sox slugger (?) went 0-for-7 with three strikeouts, and left ... wait for it ... 12 men on base (Update: Ortiz was benched Friday night against the Mariners). On the Big Papi scale, this is a slump of appalling proportions. He's homer-less in his last 144 at-bats, one shy of his career-worst drought between 1998 and 2000. Is it time for fantasy owners to cut their losses with Ortiz?
Alexei Ramirez was a popular commodity on fantasy baseball draft day. Due to his eligibility at both second base and shortstop, in addition to his power/speed combination and attractive-to-many age (27), "The Cuban Missile" was flying off the draft boards before the middle rounds.
After seven games of incredibly minimal returns, his owners must be getting a bit antsy. They didn't pay a hefty price tag for a .160 average with no home runs or stolen bases. He's struck out 7 times in only 25 at-bats -- after only doing so 61 times last year in 480 at-bats.
It's total mayhem in the fantasy baseball world right now. We have young outfielders with real 20/20 potential being sent to the minors in Washington, starting pitchers are dropping like flies to injuries, and a certain outfielder/first baseman in New York has the best ERA of any pitcher in the Yankees bullpen.
I may be screaming "the sky is falling" a little too prematurely, but fantasy owners are truly worried that some of their very high draft choices aren't performing. Let's take a look at some of the early round hitters who are having slow starts and try to figure a few things out.
Poppin' out the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.
It's total mayhem in the fantasy baseball world right now. We have young outfielders with real 20/20 potential being sent to the minors in Washington, starting pitchers are dropping like flies to injuries, and a certain outfielder/first baseman in New York has the best ERA of any pitcher in the Yankees bullpen.
