Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse

Fantasy FanHouse Roundtable: Who Is The No. 1 Overall Pick?

Matt Snyder — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:30:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Thursday was a see-saw type day for fantasy baseball analysts. We were left scrambling to rework our cheat sheets in the wake of the news Alex Rodriguez would miss at least a month of the regular season. Once we got done with said scrambling, we heard that he's actually going to rehab and play through a torn labrum in his hip.

After all was said and done -- including the revelation to non-medical people that the labrum is in both the hip and the shoulder -- the No. 1 overall pick discussion can be revisited. Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols and David Wright should certainly be involved, but it's possible to consider Jose Reyes as well.

So ... who do we have?

(click here to learn more about the FanHouse team members)

Will Brinson: I'm taking Hanley (although it's nice to see those of us who were in the Wright over A-Rod camp are now fully justified, whether you think we deserved it or not). I think Pujols might actually have another monster MVP year this season, but he's a first baseman, and with the positional scarcity coupled with Hanley's speed/power combo and youth, I just don't think you can pass on him.

Tom Herrera: I think it's got to be Hanley, too. A couple of us were already putting Ramirez at No. 1 overall over A-Rod, and now this injury clears the way for the rare power-speed shortstop to be the undisputed pick. In fact, if the early reports that Rodriguez will be out at least 10 weeks are correct, then I'm dropping him way down the rankings [Ed. note: we started this roundtable when A-Rod was thought to be out for a while]. While it's surgery on his hip rather than his knee/wrist/other key body part, I just don't take chances with a pick that high. My top-five order now becomes Ramirez-Pujols-Wright-Reyes-Sizemore, with CystRod on the outside (see, I already coined the New York Post's new nickname).

Brinson: Wouldn't that actually be "CystARoid"?

(we all just ignored that)

Knox Bardeen: I want to see Albert Pujols finish one more season with no elbow problems before I choose him first overall. His numbers merit that selection, but until he's 100 percent healthy, the injury risk keeps me from drafting him with the number one overall pick. That leaves the competition between Hanley Ramirez and David Wright.

I'm going to have to go with Wright. I think they'll both have similar batting averages, with Wright having the slight advantage. I think they'll both have similar home run totals, once again with Wright having the slight advantage. With the switch to batting third in the lineup, Ramirez loses some runs scored, giving the advantage to Wright. Ramirez will gain some RBI, but it won't be enough to catch up with Wright's RBI production. So, the only category Ramirez outshines Wright in is stolen bases. If Wright wins four of the five rotisserie categories, why shouldn't he be the first pick?

Matt Snyder: In order to cover all bases, I'd like to state that I would take Wright first overall if we were certain A-Rod would miss at least a month. There would be such a huge separation at third base between Wright and the next best player -- Evan Longoria, A-Rod, or Aramis Ramirez -- that you'd have to. Pujols has Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera to provide at least a bit of competition. Hanley has Reyes. Wright, however, would be on a plateau of his own, while putting up great numbers in all five categories.

As things stand, though, it appears A-Rod is going to be around, just hampered a bit. Personally, I'd rather have Hanley Ramirez. His RBI production should drastically increase while moving to the No. 3 hole this season, and his power numbers make him a much better pick than Reyes and Jimmy Rollins. Outside of those three, shortstop isn't exactly a burgeoning fantasy position.

Fantasy FanHouse Roundtable: Who Is The No. 1 Overall Pick? originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Red Sox

Knox Bardeen — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 11:30:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the ...
Team that decided not to spend big bucks in the offseason. Reversing course from the normal offseason spending spree in New England, the Red Sox team headed into 2009 looks remarkably similar to last year's squad. You'll recognize all nine hitters in the starting lineup and a majority of the starting rotation. Key acquisitions were made in the bullpen, bringing Takashi Saito from the Dodgers and Ramon Ramirez from the Royals. John Smoltz will look weird without a Braves uniform, but should make a major contribution to the pitching staff when he returns from shoulder surgery. And if Brad Penny can return from injuries to his 2007 form, he should provide a nice spark to the rotation as well.

The Breakout
The Red Sox enjoyed breakout seasons in '08 from Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury. David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek are all trying to reemerge and return to past form. There just aren't too many options on this ball club for breakouts. This roster is made up of a group of established players, health issues aside, that all are going to give you just about what you expect.

If you held a gun to my head and told me to pick someone, I could come up with two players who have the potential to improve on last years numbers. Jacoby Ellsbury could bring his stolen base total higher in 2009. Especially if his on-base percentage goes up. And Jason Bay could bring more power to the table; his fly ball numbers are rising along with his HR/F ratio.

The Bust
J.D. Drew has all the potential in the world to be an elite fantasy outfielder. Unfortunately, there isn't enough duct tape on earth to keep his body from falling apart. The Red Sox brought in Rocco Baldelli in the offseason as a fourth outfielder, but his injury history is as bad as Drew's. Mark Kotsay is currently sidelined until at least May. The entire right field Red Sox depth chart could be a bust this season.
I wouldn't be surprised if these guys lived in plastic bubbles when they weren't on the field.

The Lineup
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. David Ortiz, DH
4. Kevin Youkilis, 1B
5. Jason Bay, LF
6. Mike Lowell, 3B
7. J.D. Drew, RF
8. Jed Lowrie / Julio Lugo, SS
9. Jason Varitek, C

Lowrie stepped in at shortstop last season after Lugo's defensive woes and torn quad muscle opened the door. The job seems to be Lowrie's to lose, but any kind of stumbling out of the gate or defensive missteps could open the door for Lugo to grab his job back, or for a shared time situation, which would kill both players' fantasy value.

The Rotation
1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Brad Penny
5. Tim Wakefield

Clay Buchholz and Justin Masterson will be around to provide spot starts and injury relief all season. Either could slip into a starting role if a long-term situation arose. John Smoltz won't be hurried back to the lineup but will be greatly welcomed when he is healthy -- sometime in June.

The Bullpen
CL - Jonathan Papelbon
SU - Takashi Saito
SU - Manny Delcarmen
SU - Ramon Ramirez

The Skinny
o. This lineup can really mash the ball, and they are definitely going to score tons of runs. Expect the top portion of the lineup to score at will and the middle part of the lineup to drive in runs with the frequency of Lindsay Lohan tabloid appearances.

o. As good as the hitters on this team are, the team's best asset might just be the bullpen. Papelbon is the best closer in the game and Saito, Okajima, Ramirez and Delcarmen are top-notch setup men who tend to overpower and dominate hitters.

o. Dustin Pedroia sits in third place on a lot of fantasy second base lists and I want to say that's just ridiculous. His numbers are just as good as Ian Kinsler's and he doesn't have the injury history that the Texas second-sacker does. Pedroia is currently healthy, which is more than you can say for Chase Utley. Pedroia should be the first second baseman taken in fantasy drafts in 2009. His power is legit, his hitting skills are real and he's got pesky speed.

o. David Ortiz's injury-plagued season only produced 23 home runs in 2008, a seven-season low. But, he did blast six home runs in the final month of 2008, which goes a long way toward proving that his wrist is healthy and he's ready to start smacking the ball again. Expect 35+ homers out of "Big Papi" in 2009.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Red Sox originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 06 Mar 2009 11:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Two Undervalued First Basemen

Knox Bardeen — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 17:03:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice

Thursday we took a look at undervalued catchers. It seems like a logical progression to take a look at first basemen today.

When it comes to finding value when drafting this position, a few interesting names pop up. Believe it or not, I think Mark Teixeira is undervalued with an ADP of 12.60. Grabbing him with the 13th pick in a fantasy draft would make most people happy, and I'm not sure that he won't outperform Miguel Cabrera, who's a solid first-rounder with an ADP of 7.26. But, the swing from Teixeira to Cabrera isn't enough to "officially" place Teixeira on this list. Just know that if you walk up to me and tell me you got "Big Teix" in the second round, I'm going to pat you on the back.

Adrian Gonzalez is another first baseman in the boat with Teixeira. His current ADP is 35.66 which places him right at the tail end of the third round. Gonzalez is headed into his 27-year-old year, and a lot of experts feel this is the year to breakout. Gonzalez is already near his ceiling, but I could safely see him hitting 32 to 36 home runs and driving in 115 to 120. Those are better power numbers than Justin Morneau who has an ADP of 20.56. Gonzalez just won't hit for the average that Morneau will. Gonzalez also will not make this list, but I like him at the end of the third round, and is a steal in the fourth.

So, who "officially" is on the list?

Joey Votto, Reds - Votto is currently being selected in the seventh round (81.42 ADP) of fantasy drafts. He's being taken after first basemen like Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena, both of whom I feel Votto will outperform. He blasted 24 home runs last year while hitting .297, but you saw some serious growth in the second half of 2008. He started making better contact with the ball, therefore bringing his batting average up 34 points. He also started hitting more fly balls. It wasn't a dramatic increase, but the little bit shows that the 25-year-old still has some power to grow into. Going into 2009, I would expect to see Votto hit above .300. I'd also expect him to surpass his home run total from last season, but not quite reach the 30 home run plateau just yet. But, those numbers combined with the upside he brings to the table, mean that grabbing Votto in the seventh round is a big-time bargain.

Adam LaRoche, Pirates - With the month-to-month and first-half to second-half swings that LaRoche goes through, I would not touch him with a ten-foot pole if I were a fantasy GM in a head-to-head league. But, all of you rotisserie GM's should seriously take a look at him in the 24th round with an ADP of 284.00. When the dust settles, LaRoche should finish the year with a .275 batting average, 25 home runs and 90 RBI. Do you know whose stats those remind me of? To start with, those numbers look a lot like the numbers of Paul Konerko. And LaRoche will have a superior batting average to Konerko. But Konerko is being selected in the 15th round with an ADP of 169.26. Those numbers are also similar to Jorge Cantu's who has an ADP of 149.93 (13th round). Comparing those three players, I can't see why anyone wouldn't wait and draft LaRoche much later in the draft. I may want to grab a much more front-line first baseman early and then use LaRoche as a corner infielder or a utility guy. But, either way, Adam LaRoche is very undervalued at an average draft position of 284.00.

Two Undervalued First Basemen originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 05 Mar 2009 17:03:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Fallout: A-Rod's Hip Injury

Matt Snyder — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 13:50:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, MLB Injury Report

By now, fantasy players have probably already heard the big news -- that Alex Rodriguez will be missing at least the first month of the season. Needless to say, this is a bombshell in fantasy baseball. Hopefully you haven't drafted or auctioned yet. If you have, hopefully you were fortunate enough to not land A-Rod. Obviously he'll still be helpful, but not at the price you paid when everyone thought he was healthy.

Moving forward, though, let's try to get a handle on his value -- as things have been significantly altered in one fell swoop.

First, we have to look at the main subject -- Mr. A-Rod. We actually have a very reliable gauge for what we can expect. He missed 24 games last season. It sounds like he could miss about 30 in 2009. The lineup around him figures to be much better this season, and I still like a mean streak propelling him to a big season. Thus, expecting a .315 average with 35 homers, 110 RBI and 100 runs is pretty reasonable. The steals are probably the area where he won't do much damage. He's having his hip operated upon, and the Yankees have him slotted in the middle of a power lineup. Projecting 10 steals is the right amount.

Keep in mind, though, that he'll have to work his way back into playing shape and that you'll have to spend a relatively high pick on him -- in addition to needing another third baseman to play the first five weeks of the season. This means we should be a bit more conservative when predicting his numbers. In my view, it's best to expect .300/30/90/90/10.

Now, let's examine the fallout for everyone else. Looking at the above projected numbers, he should be slotted right with Aramis Ramirez. In fact, I'd place him behind Ramirez. There is now a huge gap between the top two picks -- David Wright and Evan Longoria -- making Wright a bona fide candidate for the number one overall pick. The next tier is now comprised of Longoria, Ramirez, A-Rod and Kevin Youkilis.

Finally, if you do take A-Rod, it would behoove you to draft a third baseman with positional flexibility (like Aubrey Huff, Chris Davis or Mark DeRosa) or a traditional hot starter (like Mark Reynolds), to fill in for the first five weeks of the season. Perhaps doing something like picking DeRosa with notoriously hot first-half man Dan Uggla would do the trick. You could sit through the traditional month and a half of all-world Uggla, and then trade him at sky-high value -- sliding DeRosa to second and enjoying A-Rod at third.

It's time to get creative. One of the best fantasy players in the league is going to have a shortened season. It changes everything.

Fantasy Fallout: A-Rod's Hip Injury originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 05 Mar 2009 13:50:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Flings: National League Central

Knox Bardeen — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 10:12:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball

From now until the regular season begins, Fantasy Flings is where you'll find interesting story lines about your favorite teams from Spring Training. If there is a position battle, a nagging injury, a comeback story or a youngster making a surge for the "big club" we'll let you know the fantasy implications.

Chicago Cubs
Sean Marshall is the favorite to win the job as the Cubs 5th starter in the rotation, but he's going to have to fight off a slew of others including Chad Gaudin, Ken Kadokura and Jeff Samardzija. Marshall went a long way towards proving he's the right choice on Tuesday as he threw three perfect innings. In five spring innings he's given up one run, four hits, struck out two and walked none. With the addition of Milton Bradley, Kosuke Fukudome only has one option in the outfield; center field. He'll be competing with Reed Johnson for that job. Johnson is the only one in camp as Fukudome is participating in the World Baseball Classic.

Cincinnati Reds
Manager Dusty Baker is building a lineup to focus on speed and defense instead of one featuring big bats. That's good news for fantasy owners who own Willy Taveras, Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Brandon Phillips as stolen base totals are likely to rise in this new regime. In left field the Reds are hoping that rookie Chris DIckerson can provide a much needed outburst at the plate. In nine at-bats he has four hits with two home runs.

Houston Astros
Brad Ausmus is no longer an Astro which opens the door for six (yes, I said six) combatants to show off their skills. Last year's disappointment J.R. Towles leads the group comprised of Humberto Quintero, Toby Hall, Jason Castro, Lou Santangelo and Lou Palmisano. The group is a combined 2 for 27 thus far and while manager Cecil Cooper praised a few in the group for their defensive work, that mean diddly squat for your fantasy team. Another not so glamorous position battle is at third base between Geoff Blum and Aaron Boone. Combined these two are 1 for 19 and buzz around camp is focused on prospect Chris Johnson who's 5 for 12 with a double and a home run. Johnson batted .299 with 13 home runs in combined Double-A and Triple-A action in 2008 and may not be ready for big league pitchers. But, the Astros might not have a choice.

Milwaukee Brewers
Yovani Gallardo struck out five of the nine batters he faced on Tuesday and for the spring has only given up two hits in four innings with zero runs scored against him. The Brewers would like to see their ace return in a big way from ACL surgery that cost him the majority of the season in 2008. Corey Hart has also been opening eyes so far in early spring action. Yes he was a 20/20 guy last season, but an embarassing .300 on-base percentage held him back from bigger things. In 13 at-bats this spring Hart has eight hits (two of which were home runs) and three stolen bases.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Only one of the rotation spots for the Pirates is completely locked down with Paul Maholm as their ace. That leaves a lot of decisions for the remaining four spots. Donnie Veal has been impressive in three games only giving up one hit in three innings of work and zero runs. Ross Ohlendorf is also making a play at a rotation spot with two perfect innings of work and three strikeouts. The other rotation candidates are Ian Snell, Zack Duke, Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Karstens.

St. Louis Cardinals
The two names you hear the most buzz about, especially when it comes to uncertainty about playing time, are Chris Carpenter and Skip Schumaker. Schumaker is trying to make the jump from outfield to second base to see if the club can find him more at-bats. He's been cranking up pitching machines to 95 MPH to field ground balls to work on his defense, but more importantly he's got five hits in 14 at-bats with six runs scored.If Schumaker can field his way into the second baseman's role, his fantasy value rises dramatically. Carpenter pitched two scoreless innings, giving up no hits and only needing 19 pitches. The biggest item for him is the fact that he felt fine afterwards and will be ready for his next scheduled appearance.

Fantasy Flings: National League Central originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 05 Mar 2009 10:12:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Rays

Matt Snyder — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the ...
Best team in baseball. Yes, they are still better than the Yankees and Red Sox. Lost in all the joy of last season were the facts that two key players were injured down the stretch and another had an absolutely dreadful offensive season. Throw in the addition of Pat Burrell, and the continued growth of the young pitching staff, and you have a team who can take on the big-spending Yankees and venerable Red Sox.

The Breakout
Matt Garza showed his big game ability in the ALCS, as he handcuffed the Red Sox twice -- including a series-clinching Game 7. He had gone 11-9 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his first full regular season in the majors. His strikeouts could definitely be more helpful, as 128 in 184 2/3 innings pitched is not a solid rate by any means.

Here's the thing, though. He's improved at every chance in the bigs. He's only 25, and he's now made 54 career starts. Throughout the minors, he always struck out more than a batter per inning, and he now has one of the best defenses in baseball behind him. October should have given him more confidence heading into this season, and he's ready to bust through. A 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 175 strikeouts to go with 15 wins are definitely reachable plateaus for the youngster. He's even cheaper than he should be due being overshadowed by the presence of uber-prospect David Price.

The Bust
David Price has not sewn up the fifth spot in the rotation. Recent reports indicate he may even start the season in triple-A. He's destined to be great, but the Rays are trying to win now. If someone outperforms him while he's still learning professional baseball, he's just going to have to wait.

Here's a list of guys who are going later than Price on MDC: Javier Vazquez, Brett Myers, Zack Greinke, Aaron Harang, Derek Lowe, and Garza. A few rounds before Garza, in fact.

Look, we know he has the talent to justify this spot on an ADP chart -- next season. For this year, we just don't know what to expect. Those guys I listed are definitely going to be reliable for a full season. You can't say that about Price. The Rays will not rush him, thus, I recommend you take the same approach. Let someone else pay for the excessive hype.

The Lineup
1. Akinori Iwamura, 2B
2. Carl Crawford, LF
3. B.J. Upton, CF
4. Evan Longoria, 3B
5. Pat Burrell, DH
6. Carlos Pena, 1B
7. Dioner Navarro, C
8. Matt Joyce, RF
9. Jason Bartlett, SS

Gabe Gross also has a shot at the right field job.

The Rotation
1. James Shields
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Matt Garza
4. Andy Sonnanstine
5. David Price

The Bullpen
CL - Troy Percival
SU - Dan Wheeler
SU - Grant Balfour
SU - J.P. Howell

The Skinny
o. Lots to love here. There are three studs (Upton, Longoria, Crawford) in the lineup, and all five starting pitchers will be drafted in many leagues. If you play in deep AL-only leagues, it's conceivable that every player listed above gets drafted, because the set-up men are stellar.

o. If Price doesn't win the fifth-starter spot out of Spring Training, it's going to be a dude named Jeff Niemann -- who has been dealing thus far in camp. In case you haven't heard of this gargantuan fellow -- he stands 6'9" and weighs 280 -- he's a perfect example of how deep and good the Rays system is right now. The 25 year-old right-hander was the fourth overall pick in 2004. He's got a high strikeout rate, but has yet to baffle hitters consistently. That is, until this year in Spring Training. If he keeps this up, he's definitely worth a late pick in AL-only leagues.

o. Navarro made significant strides offensively in his second full year as a major leaguer in 2008. He hit .295 and drove home 54 men. If you either miss out on or don't believe in drafting elite catchers, he's a good late round option in all leagues. He's only 25, so there's a possibility the power appears eventually anyway.

o. If you play in a league where you only draft closers, you probably should look elsewhere. Percival is supposedly going to be ready to have the job on Opening Day, but if he stays healthy and/or productive enough to keep it is a whole different story altogether. Next in line should be Wheeler, but Balfour and Howell were studs last season. There are a lot of options here, but none are sure-fire bets for saves.

o. You simply cannot give up on Crawford. He's only 27 years-old. Last year was an off-year, sure, but he only played in 109 games. We're talking about a guy who could hit .300 with 20 homers, 80 RBI, 100 runs, and 50 steals. That would be the best-case scenario, but do you really want to sleep on a guy with this kind of multi-category talent?

o. Upton -- who you know we love this year -- will probably miss the first week or so of the regular season. In his absence, we'll get a look at 25 year-old Fernando Perez. Perez has very solid stolen base totals through his minor league stat-lines, in addition to good on-base percentages. If you want really cheap speed as a type of rental early in the season, Perez is your man.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Rays originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 05 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Flings: American League Central

Knox Bardeen — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 11:37:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice

From now until the regular season begins, Fantasy Flings is where you'll find interesting story lines about your favorite teams from Spring Training. If there is a position battle, a nagging injury, a comeback story or a youngster making a surge for the "big club" we'll let you know the fantasy implications.

Chicago White Sox
The buzz around White Sox camp is position battles. Up for grabs is the third base position, center field and second base. Josh Fields and Dayan Viciedo are fighting for third and Fields has the leg up. Both hitters can mash the ball and both play suspect defense; although Fields is improving. Fields worked extensively this off-season at Camp Cora and Cora mentioned that everyone would be shocked with what they see out of Fields this year. He has three hits in six at-bats with two doubles so far this spring. Jayson Nix and his four hits in six at-bats with two doubles seem to be taking over as front-runner for the second base job thought to belong to Chris Getz. DeWayne Wise is being called the "best player this spring" and may be taking the center field job from injured Jerry Owens.

Cleveland Indians
Injuries are keeping "fans of the feather" awake at night as two thirds of the starting outfield has pulled out of the World Baseball Classic because of injury concerns. Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore both announced this past week that they need to heal and will not leave camp to participate in the WBC. Aaron Laffey was the front runner to win the 5th rotation spot, but he's not fared well in two appearances giving up eight hits and four earned runs in four innings. On the flip side of that coin, none of the other four competitors for the rotation spot, Scott Lewis, Jeremy Sowers, David Huff or Zach Jackson have really been lights out either.

Detroit Tigers
All eyes will be on top prospect Rick Porcello today as he pitches against Panama for his first spring start. His name is being thrown around as a candidate for the 5th rotation spot as neither Dontrelle Willis or Nate Robertson have been impressive thus far. The fourth competitor Zach Miner gave up five earned runs and nine hits in his four inning attempt to win the job. This competition is wide open and the Tigers have proved in the past that they'll give the ball to a young rookie. Jeremy Bonderman was the same age as Porcello when he broke into the rotation.

Kansas City Royals
The talk of camp isn't about what's going on there or who's doing what. It's about who's not in camp. The Royals were to try an experiment to get Mark Teahen more at-bats this season. The Royals planned to give him an extensive look at second base instead of his normal corner infield or outfield position. However, instead of getting to camp and learning a new position, Teahen is of at the World Baseball Classic playing third base for Canada. He's going to be way behind in the second base competition upon his return, something that doesn't bode well for his fantasy value; which would have gone up as a second baseman.

Minnesota Twins
Everyone remotely involved with the Twins, from front office staff to coaches to fantasy GM's are thrilled that Joe Nathan threw pain free yesterday in a workout for coaches. At third base, Joe Crede is beginning to put to rest any doubts that the starting job is his. He hit the ball hard against Puerto Rico and came up easily from a diving defensive stop at third. His surgically repaired back seems fine, which is good news for everyone except Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher; the two expected to fight for the third base job. Buscher isn't going down without a fight. He's six for ten with two doubles and a home run in spring so far.

Fantasy Flings: American League Central originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 04 Mar 2009 11:37:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Yankees

Matt Snyder — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the ...
Funhouse. Formerly the straight arrow clubhouse where fun wasn't allowed -- even though it did find a way to seep in there from time to time -- now the Yankees are taking trips to pool halls instead of practice. Plus, do you see CC and Joba in this picture? They are having the time of their lives. The Yankees are now just here to have fun. Seriously, just ask the Steinbrenner family. They don't even care about wins, for real.

The Breakout
Yeah, there's going to be a player on the Yankees who is flying under the proverbial radar. Fat chance. I was gonna go with Joba, but his ADP is just insane. He's being picked before Jon Lester, Dice-K, Carlos Zambrano, and Yovani Gallardo. C'mon, now. That's bust-range.

I thought about Cano, but he's done way more in the big leagues than he ever did in the minors. It's perfectly rational to argue that his ceiling was 2006.

The one person I'd take a look at in AL-only leagues is Nick Swisher. The problem is that there is no guaranteed playing time. In fact, the Yanks could ship him to Pittsburgh at any moment.

In Swisher, you have a 29 year-old who is coming off a disastrous first season away from Oakland. It's been two seasons since he hit 35 homers and drove home 95 runs, but that season showed his power potential. The new Yankee Stadium should be an easier venue in which to hit the ball out of the park than in Oakland, and the lineup around him would likely supply many more RBI and run scoring opportunities. I'd definitely roll the dice in AL-only leagues that he comes away with semi-regular playing time and has a bounce-back season.

The Bust
I've already let Jeter and Sabathia have it elsewhere in the draft kit, but -- in the process of doing so -- I've neglected A.J. Burnett. Burnett has only managed more than 30 starts twice in the past six seasons, and both were coincidentally (cough, cough) contract years. The stars really aligned for the 31 year-old in 2008, as he put together his worst ERA and WHIP in a season of more than 15 starts, yet managed to win 18 games -- mightily impressing the old guard of fans. He also struck out 231 batters, which fantasy owners love. You know who really padded his stat-line, by the way? The Yankees. He had a 1.64 ERA and 43 punchouts in 38 1/3 innings. That's not overly relevant here, except to note that he won't have the Yankees offense to bully anymore.

Anyway, I'm not expecting Burnett to make more than 30 starts. Even if he does, you are paying for his Ks and wins from last year while ignoring his ERA and WHIP. There is too much evidence in favor of him letting down fantasy owners this season to justify his 19th ADP amongst starting pitchers. He's going in front of the same guys I mentioned with Joba. I'll pass, and recommend you do the same.

The Lineup
1. Johnny Damon, LF
2. Derek Jeter, SS
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Jorge Posada, C
6. Hideki Matsui / Nick Swisher, DH
7. Xavier Nady, RF
8. Robinson Cano, 2B
9. Brett Gardner, CF

Gardner has a fight with Melky Cabrera for the center-field job, but I think the Yanks have really soured on Cabrera. They also have the option of making their defense even worse than it already is by playing either Damon or Swisher in center, a move which would obviously maximize offense. I'd honestly be tempted if I was Joe Girardi. Your defense is already bad, so how could you pass on the opportunity to have Cano your 9-hole? That is just sick.

The Rotation
1. CC Sabathia
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. AJ Burnett
4. Andy Pettitte
5. Joba Chamberlain

The Bullpen
CL - Mariano Rivera
SU - Damaso Marte

The Skinny
o. All joking and snarkiness aside, I actually like the Yankees. I swear, I do. They are my wife's favorite team, and there's more than a few items of Yankee paraphernalia around the house (obviously dwindled by the massive amount of Cubs stuff, but you get the idea). The issue you find in fantasy baseball, though, is that Yankee players suffer from inflated perceived value more than any other team. It's just that aura that surrounds the Bronx Bombers. The mystique, if you will. Well, that doesn't help in fantasy baseball. Paul O'Neill wasn't a great fantasy player, and Scott Brosious was pretty sub-par. It just doesn't translate.

o. I'm very interested to see how Teixeira deals with the New York spotlight. I like him as a member of the elite echelon at first base, but there's a chance he busts. Someone like Lance Berkman is much safer.

o. Posada is someone who could house great value, which is surprising. He's going 11th out of all catchers, sitting behind Matt Wieters, who isn't even going to start the season in the majors. I know Jorgie is getting up there in years, but he's got enough left to provide you with some pop behind the plate.

o. Damon has actually become underrated in fantasy, due to being overshadowed in the Bronx. He's going to give you more than 15 jacks, about 70 RBI, steal more than 25 bases, and score more than 100 runs. Last year he hit .303. He's got a few years left in his prime, so he's a good category filler as your second or third outfielder.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Yankees originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 04 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Three Undervalued Catchers

Knox Bardeen — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 09:13:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice

When you run around in fantasy baseball circles long enough you hear terms thrown around too often. Words like "sleeper", "breakout" and "undervalued" are overused catchphrases comparable to Arnold Drummond's "Whatchoo talkin' 'bout, Willis?" or Donald Trump's "You're fired!" However, it's next to impossible to talk fantasy baseball for any length of time and not get caught up in this oft-used terminology. That being said, let me explain what I mean by undervalued.

In this article I'm going to take a look at Average Draft Position as calculated at Mock Draft Central. After looking at ADP and comparing that to projections for 2009 a few catchers will appear who I think will outperform (read: have better statistics) their current draft positions. I'm not predicting career years here or campaigning for these guys to be drafted higher than they currently are being taken. I'm merely stating that you'll get good value and maybe even be surprised with how well these three catchers perform compared to where you get them in your fantasy draft.

Ryan Doumit, Pirates - Fresh off of a new deal that extends Doumit's tenure as a Pirate to 2013, he's ready to prove that he can continue on the breakout year that was 2008. Doumit hit 15 home runs and batted .318 in 431 at-bats last season and is slated as the Pirates cleanup hitter going into 2009. His increased numbers can be attributed to an increase in contact rate and to hitting more line drives. His 33.8 percent hit rate is a slight bit higher than his normal 31.6 percent which could draw his batting average down in 2009. But, if he keeps his contact rate up near 87 percent, he'll still hit above .300. His fly ball rate and HR/F ratio also foretell another season of 15-20 home runs. A .300 hitting catcher who can approach 20 home runs is a steal in the 11th round as his ADP is currently 120.39.

Chris Iannetta, Rockies - In only 333 at-bats last season, Iannetta blasted 18 home runs showing everyone why he was such a touted prospect. He struck out more than usual which could be a result of him trying to find his power stroke. But find his power stroke he did, indeed. His 40.7 percent fly ball rate and 18.2 percent HR/F ratio show that he's hitting a lot more balls in the air and they are leaving the yard in plenitude. Iannetta doesn't have the contact rate to become a .300 hitter, but if you give him 500 at-bats in 2009 his power numbers could propel him toward the top of the catcher rankings. It's easy to see Iannetta hitting 22-25 home runs this season and that will make those of you that draft him in the 12th round (139.89 ADP) very happy.

Ramon Hernandez, Reds - Three of the last four seasons for Hernandez have been marred by some form of injury. He did happen to get back some of his 2006 glory last season before being slowed, however. This offseason Hernandez moved to Cincinnati from Baltimore, and Great American Ball Park is a hitters dream. Hernandez raised his line drive rate last season and brought his HR/F ratio back towards normal. If these two trends continue, and Hernandez actually enjoys playing in Cincinnati (an issue in Baltimore), there is no reason why he can't hit 17 home runs. He's currently being drafted in the 21st round with an ADP of 247.55. A catcher who hits 17 home runs and bats between .260 and .270 is a great steal in the late rounds of a fantasy draft.

Three Undervalued Catchers originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 04 Mar 2009 09:13:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Flings: National League East

Knox Bardeen — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:33:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice

From now until the regular season begins, Fantasy Flings is where you'll find interesting story lines about your favorite teams from Spring Training. If there is a position battle, a nagging injury, a comeback story or a youngster making a surge for the "big club" we'll let you know the fantasy implications.

Atlanta Braves
There are a number of story lines buzzing in Braves camp. You have a battle between Jordan Schafer and Josh Anderson for the right to patrol center field. You also have five of Baseball America's top 100 prospects in camp, including the fifth ranked prospect who's been turning heads, Jason Heyward. But the king of the hill in to this point for the Braves is the fourth ranked prospect on that Baseball America list, Tommy Hanson. Hanson is fighting for a chance to grab the final rotation spot after he tore up the Arizona Fall League. In his first start he struck out two in two innings of work, walked one and allowed two runs. More buzzworthy was the fact that he touched 99 MPH on the radar gun and plunked Astros shortstop Miguel Tejada in retaliation to his shortstop Yunel Escobar being plunked earlier. Hanson pitches again today in an exhibition against the WBC team from Panama.

Florida Marlins
Cody Ross and Jeremy Hermida swapped corner outfield positions. Ross is adjusting fine, even displaying a superb arm in right field while Hermida is having problems, drawing boos from the crowd in left field. Neither player, however, is receiving the amount of attention that rookie center fielder Cameron Maybin is getting. It started with the uproar of Maybin taking the leadoff role away from Hanley Ramirez. And it's continued with Ramirez already proclaiming Maybin the 2009 Rookie of the Year and some fantasy blogs predicting a top 30 finish in the outfield rankings for Maybin. The center fielder of the future is leading the team with 12 at-bats and has four hits.

New York Mets
A huge scare went through Mets camp as Johan Santana was scratched from his first exhibition start. He was shortly scratched from a second spring start and then news became worse as rumors began flying around that he would not be able to make his first regular season start. He scheduled a trip to New York to get an MRI, then canceled it saying he was fine. After a bullpen session on Sunday where he threw 35 pitches Santana still feels good and might see action as soon as March 13th. The health of Johan Santana is of vital importance to the Mets and to every fantasy GM who has selected him. What a waste of a second round pick it would be if Santana did miss considerable time in 2009.

Philadelphia Phillies
Going into the fantasy baseball draft season a popular topic has been whether or not you should pass on Corey Hart in the 5th round of drafts to take a very similar Jayson Werth in the 12th round. They are both 20/20 guys. They both have similar batting averages. It just seemed to make sense to do something else with that 5th round pick and wait on Werth. Well Jayson Werth hasn't played much this spring. In fact, he's yet to see regular action. The only action he has seen is in a B game where he came up to bat twice but never swung, claiming he only wanted to track pitches. Werth is nursing a hurting shoulder and isn't sure when he'll be ready. Maybe it's time to reconsider the wait for Werth strategy.

Washington Nationals
The Braves aren't the only NL East team with a huge starting pitching prospect. The Nationals have one too in Jordan Zimmerman. He threw two perfect innings last week against a Detroit Tigers team and struck out three batters. Zimmerman fared well in minor league action last season going 10-3 with a 2.89 ERA in combined Single-A and Advanced-A action. Most feel the 22-year-old needs a bit more seasoning in the minors, but a 2009 Major League arrival date is expected. He has an outside shot at making this rotation out of camp this spring. If he does, the waiver wire's will be buzzing.

Fantasy Flings: National League East originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:33:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Late-Round Draft Strategy: 2 Middle Relievers Can Help More Than 1 Starter

Knox Bardeen — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 10:46:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

So, you're in the waning rounds of your fantasy baseball draft and you have two bench spots to fill. You could go the route of a late round starting pitcher and another reserve outfielder, but let's look at some of the names you'll see. You'll be looking at drafting guys like Joe Blanton, Bronson Arroyo, Jeff Francoeur and Michael Cuddyer. These guys are serviceable bench players, but what if you had a better option for those last two picks?

What if I told you that taking two middle relievers would be a better option for your fantasy team? Let's first look at Blanton's 5x5 stats from last season. He had nine wins, 111 strikeouts, a 4.69 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP.

Now, let's look at a few middle relievers who should also be available in those late rounds. J.P. Howell and Matt Thornton both have average draft positions well above 300. If you were to use your final two selections on them and combine their stats here's what you'd get. You have a pitcher with 11 wins, 169 strikeouts, a 2.41 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 156.2 innings of work.

The 11 wins are a bit short, but all of the other stats make up a very solid, top 20 starting pitcher. Why not combine two middle relievers with your late round picks instead of grabbing a serviceable starter and bench player? These middle relievers will help incredibly with your WHIP and ERA and be a nice added bonus of Wins and Strikeouts. This seems to be a much better strategy than grabbing a starter who's going to have a ballooned ERA above 4.00 and kill your WHIP.

Here's a small list of middle relievers who may fit the bill of late round combo picks:

o. J.P. Howell, Rays - Howell had six wins, 92 strikeouts and a 2.22 ERA last season.
o. Matt Thornton, White Sox - Thornton had five wins, 77 strikeouts and a 2.67 ERA last season.
o. Grant Balfour, Rays - Balfour had six wins, 82 strikeouts and a 1.54 ERA last season.
o. Scot Shields, Angels - Shields had six wins, 64 strikeouts and a 2.70 ERA last season.
o. Jose Veras, Yankees - Veras had five wins, 63 strikeouts and a 3.59 ERA last season.
o. Chad Durbin, Phillies - Durbin had five wins, 63 strikeouts and a 2.87 ERA last season.
o. John Grabow, PIrates - Grabow had six wins, 62 strikeouts and a 2.84 ERA last season.

You'll find many more pitchers who can be of help while using this strategy. You'll want to focus on pitchers who strikeout a good number of batters, walk very few, and keep their ERA's down, well below 4.00. Wins from middle relievers are hard to predict. As long as your selections are providing top notch numbers in the other categories, the few wins these middle relievers get are gravy.

Late-Round Draft Strategy: 2 Middle Relievers Can Help More Than 1 Starter originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Tue, 03 Mar 2009 10:46:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Rockies

Matt Snyder — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the ...
Humidor! Seriously, didn't you hear that Colorado now stores their baseballs in a humidor and Coors Field is no longer a hitter's park? If someone in your league really believes that, just let them. You'll know the truth -- which is that Coors Field bore witness to the third most runs scored and third most home runs in baseball last year. In 2007? Third in runs, fifth in home runs. You can't just negate thin air with a cigar-housing device. It's a hitter's park, and it's consistently one of the most hitter-friendly.

The Breakout
Chris Iannetta began his breakout as a quality fantasy catcher last season, and he's set to continue becoming an elite hitting backstop in 2009. Two years ago hard-core fantasy players pined over the young Rockies catcher, and he severely disappointed them. In 2008, though, we started to see glimpses of the power potential he possesses.

Iannetta his 18 home runs and drove in 65 runs in just 333 at-bats last year. His batting average wasn't great (.264), but he has a career .303 minor league average. The good signs were Iannetta's .390 on-base percentage -- a sign he knows the strike zone well -- and his power. As he gains more valuable experience, the 26 year-old (he turns 26 on the third day of the season) will improve across the board. You're looking at a guy just getting close to his prime, and he houses .300-30-85 potential.

The Bust
Huston Street is being drafted ahead of Chad Qualls, Frank Francisco, and Chris Perez. All of those three will outproduce him this season. The former rookie of the year took significant steps backward last season, to the point that the A's removed him from the closer role. Now he's departing a pitcher's park and moving into one of the most favorable hitter's havens in all of the majors.

It's true Street is still very young -- he turns 26 in early August -- but there a lots of unknown variables here. He's inexperienced in the thin Colorado air, it's possible he's traded to another team this year (where he may be relegated to setup duty), and Manny Corpas is waiting in the wings. Corpas had a bad 2008, but he's young himself and has successfully closed in Colorado before.

The Lineup
1. Ryan Spillborghs, CF
2. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
3. Todd Helton, 1B
4. Garrett Atkins, 3B
5. Brad Hawpe, RF
6. Chris Iannetta, C
7. Left Fielder*
8. Clint Barmes, 2B

*The replacement for Matt Holliday will be determined in Spring Training. Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Murton, Scott Podsednik, Dan Ortmeier, Seth Smith, and Ian Stewart all have a shot. Stewart could also get time at third base, should Helton not be fully recovered from injury -- meaning Atkins would shift across the diamond.

The Rotation
1. Aaron Cook
2. Ubaldo Jimenez
3. Jorge De La Rosa
4. Jason Marquis
5. Greg Smith

The Bullpen
CL - Huston Street
SU - Manny Corpas
SU - Taylor Buchholz

The Skinny
o. We've already expressed our love for Tulowitzki elsewhere in the draft kit, but I'll reiterate that he's an absolute steal as the eighth shortstop in current ADP.

o. The entire mess in the outfield (left and center) should be avoided with the exception of Stewart, because he's a solid prospect who will find ways to get into the lineup. He's a late-round pick in NL-only leagues, with the potential to bust through should he win the left-field job, or see Atkins or Helton to go down injured.

o. Deep NL-only league players should keep their eyes on Dexter Fowler. As detailed in our Better Know a Prospect series, he's destined to patrol center in Coors Field for years. It's only a matter of time before he gets the call, and it could happen as soon as August.

o. With an ADP among starting pitchers of 42, Cook appears to be pretty overvalued. He won 16 games last year and put together a 3.96 ERA. The problem is that he gave up an astounding 236 hits in 211 1/3 innings, which means he was very fortunate to keep that ERA below 4.00. In addition to shattering his career high in wins (his previous high was 9), he set a career high in strikeouts -- with a measily 96. Do you really want to pay for a guy who can't strikeout 100 batters in 200 innings, just because he might win 13 games and keep his ERA around 4.00? Plus, he's in the middle of his prime (30 years-old), so it's doubtful there is any room for extra improvement. I'll pass.

o. On the other hand, Jimenez won 12 games, had a similar ERA, and struck out 172 batters. The downside is that he's shown serious control problems, but he's only 25 years-old and last year was his first full season in the bigs. His 66 ADP among starting pitchers means he's being taken nearly 100 overall picks after Cook. Please. I'll take Jimenez anyday.

o. Finally, if Murton wins the left-field job (he won't), don't buy into him. He sucks.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Rockies originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Tue, 03 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Flings: American League East

Knox Bardeen — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 14:47:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice

From now until the regular season begins, Fantasy Flings is where you'll find interesting story lines about your favorite teams from Spring Training. If there is a position battle, a nagging injury, a comeback story or a youngster making a surge for the "big club" we'll let you know the fantasy implications.

Boston Red Sox
What's the strength of this Red Sox club so far in spring? By looking at the numbers, it's their bullpen. The seven projected relievers in the bullpen (Jonathan Papelbon, Takashi Saito, Ramon Ramirez, Justin Masterson, Manny Delcarmen, Hideki Okajima and Javier Lopez) have combined to give up only one run on six hits in 13 innings of work. Last season the Red Sox bullpen produced 34 wins and these seven pitchers struck out 456 batters. What does all of this mean for your fantasy club? It means that Paps is still a solid, lock down closer. It also means that if you're looking for cheap wins, strikeouts, low ERA's and WHIP's you should start by scouring the Red Sox pen. And if your fantasy league uses holds, the value from this list just went up.

Baltimore Orioles
Luke Scott and Aubrey Huff are leading the team in hits at this point with four each. Both are trying to build off of good years last season. Not many think that Huff can repeat in 2009 what he did in '08. If his 4-for-5 start is any indication, he may be showing that 2008 wasn't the outlier and 2005 through 2007 were. His average draft position is 88.52 at this point, but a repeat of 2008 would prove to be a steal for those that grab him in the 8th round. Scott saw a pretty significant drop in his fly ball ratio in the second half last season, which tainted his breakout performance. If he continues improving, as his early spring numbers are leading towards, his average draft position of 240.88 is way too low.

New York Yankees
Ian Kennedy took it for granted that he'd already locked up a rotation spot going into Spring Training last season. He was wrong and has vowed to prove it to everyone that he belongs this season. He started this quest by blowing away the competition in Puerto Rico this winter as he went 2-2 with a 1.56 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 34.2 innings for Indios de Mayaguez. In his first appearance this spring, Kennedy threw two innings, striking out three, walking one and giving up one hit. He's going to have to really pitch fantastically to avoid being sent to Triple-A Scranton. If he finds a way, keep an eye on him in deeper mixed leagues.

Tampa Bay Rays
Jason Hammell isn't going away quietly; in fact he's making a lot of noise in the competition for the Rays fifth rotation spot. In two appearances this spring he's thrown six innings and allowed no runs. In Sunday's game, Hammell threw four scoreless innings. He's also struck out five and only walked one batter. To date, he's out pitched Mitch Talbot and had one more appearance than Jeff Niemann (who also threw well). The fourth competitor, David Price, has yet to throw in Spring Training.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays could really use breakout years from two of their three projected starting outfielders. Travis Snider is only 21 years old and has 73 major league at-bats, but he's already being called the team's best hitter by some in the Jays front office. In seven Spring at-bats, Snider is hitting .429 with a home run and a double. On the other hand, Alex Rios is hitting the ball incredibly hard this spring but not seeing the base hits to go with those scorchers. Rios only has one hit in six at-bats and needs to regain his power stroke to go along with the speed he turned up in 2008.

Fantasy Flings: American League East originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 02 Mar 2009 14:47:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Giants

Matt Snyder — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the ...
Team desperately needing a bat in the middle of the order. It's too bad money is so tight right now, because the Giants could certainly use a certain eccentric slugger in the middle of their order. They still aren't altogether out of the running for Manny Ramirez, but I believe he's staying put in Los Angeles. Too bad they wasted all that money on Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand.

The Breakout
He better make good on this, because the Giants really need it. Remember that void in the middle of the lineup? You should, because I just mentioned it in the previous paragraph. Well, a dude named Pablo Sandoval is the only viable in-house solution.

The 22 year-old Venezuelan switch-hitter made quite the splash last season in his limited action. He hit .345 and drove home 24 runs in only 145 at-bats. Before that, he had destroyed high-A and double-A pitching through 112 games (.350 average, 20 homers, 96 RBI). He'll slide into third base this season for the Giants, as they look to find their three-hole for the foreseeable future. Bonus points if you play in a league where he can still be used at catcher (his original minor league position).

The Bust
There aren't many overvalued fantasy guys in this clubhouse. You have young up-and-comers like Sandoval, guys who won't disappoint you (Lincecum, Wilson), and underrated veterans (Winn, Molina). I can't exactly call Zito a bust because everyone knows he sucks by now. At gunpoint, I'm going to have to say Randy Johnson.

I'm a fan of the Big Unit, but he's 45 years-old, and he's an old 45 due to the 4,000+ innings he tossed over the course of his illustrious career. He's heading to a very nice pitcher's park, and his name carries a ton of weight. I'd be wary of taking him as an SP3, because he can't consistently handle the workload he used to. Plus, you aren't paying for the strikeout machine anymore. He hasn't struck out more than a man per inning since 2004, and he used to do that with his eyes closed.

The Lineup
1. Randy Winn, RF
2. Fred Lewis, LF
3. Pablo Sandoval, 3B
4. Bengie Molina, C
5. Aaron Rowand, CF
6. Edgar Renteria, SS
7. Travis Ishikawa, 1B
8. Juan Uribe, 2B

There's a lot to be sorted out in camp. Kevin Frandsen, Emmanuel Burriss and Eugenio Velez are in the mix at second base. Rich Aurilia and John Bowker are possibilities at first base, and the entire batting order is up in the air.

The Rotation
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Randy Johnson
3. Matt Cain
4. Jonathan Sanchez
5. Barry Zito

The Bullpen
CL - Brian Wilson
SU - Bob Howry
SU - Jeremy Affeldt

The Skinny
o. As I said in the bust section, there's good value available on this team -- but you have to play in deep leagues for much of it to be worthwhile. The only definites in shallow leagues are Lincecum and Molina. Tiny Tim is arguably the top pitcher, and Molina is a cheap option at catcher (seriously, he had 95 freaking RBI last year).

As for the deep league players, here you go:

o. Winn is a very underrated fantasy player. He's gonna hit around .300 with 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases, while scoring a respectable amount of runs. He's a quality outfielder in NL-only leagues.

o. Lewis is a good source of cheap speed. He stole 21 bases last year in only 133 games.

o. Last year was a bad season for Renteria. The good news, though, is that his four best seasons (OPS+) came in four of his last five National League seasons. This year, he's back in the comfortable NL. He's not a great option, but you can expect an average around .300 with modest power and double-digits in steals.

o. Wilson houses great value. He's currently the 18th ranked reliever in ADP. He saved 41 games last season for a very bad Giants team. He put together a studly K-rate. The problem was that his ERA and WHIP were brutal. Of course, it was his first full season in the league, and he's still a bit young. He'll learn the ropes and improve in those areas. In the meantime, he'll continue missing bats and closing games.

o. Cain has never had good fortune in the bigs, thus, he's gone sour in the minds of many-a-fantasy owner. Over the past two seasons, he's gone 15-30, but his ERA has been significantly better than league average. His teammates barely score more than three runs a game for him. We also need to keep in mind he's only 24 years-old. I really like Cain's chances of a big season this year.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Giants originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 02 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: New Studs on The Block - Snyder's Edition

Matt Snyder — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 07:30:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, MLB New Studs, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

New Studs on the Block takes a look at the next potential stars of the fantasy baseball season.

One thing I've noticed in fantasy baseball in recent years is the way people go overboard hyping youngsters (see Wieters, Matt). In turn, if these guys don't turn out quite as exciting as we thought they'd be, they are thrown on the scrap heap by frustrated owners. As we saw from Cliff Lee, Carlos Quentin, and Edinson Volquez last season, you should never just give up on a guy with talent.

With this in mind, my "new studs" may not feel so new, per se ... but they will be the ones who finally pay dividends to patient fantasy owners.

Delmon Young, OF, Twins - Two years ago, everyone wanted him. Now, it's like he has the bubonic plague. For some perspective, we need to step back and realize he made his major league debut at age 20. He's only 23 now, but he's had 1,346 major league at-bats. He's also reportedly added 15 pounds of muscle in the offseason, in addition to tweaking his swing in an attempt to eliminate the excessive amount of weak grounders. These are things we should like hearing. He's got a work ethic, and we already knew he had enough talent to be drafted first overall by the Rays -- who scout well.

Here's what else we know: He flashed 30-30 potential in the minors while always hitting well above .300. He wasn't even of drinking age yet when this was happening. His understanding of the strike zone improved last season as he adapted to a new home. There is simply too much talent here to dismiss based upon two somewhat disappointing fantasy seasons from a man this talented -- and I'll say again that he's only 23.

On the most current ADP charts, he's being drafted behind Luke Scott, Ryan Church, Juan Pierre, and Elijah Dukes. I can't condone this. It's hard enough to see it and not scream. Young is ready to bust through, so everyone needs to get over their disappointment from the past few seasons concerning him.

Matt Cain, SP, Giants - A 15-30 record in the past two years won't endear you to many fantasy owners. While the astute owners know it's not his fault, there still isn't enough of a movement to support this young fireballer. He's only 24 years-old, and he's made 104 career starts. He pitches in a really favorable pitcher's park, and he's never had an ERA below the league average. You're gonna get strikeouts as well.

His ADP (currently 28 in starting pitchers) is hardly worrisome, but I'm not doing a column on perceived sleepers. The issue at hand is finding a new stud, and Cain hasn't necessarily been a stud in the past two years. That, my friends, is over. He's ready to join the elite. He's ready to stand side-by-side with Tim Lincecum as one of the best one-two punches in baseball.

Are you ready for 15 wins, 200 K, and a 3.25 ERA? If so, Cain's your man.

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds - If we could cherry-pick Encarnacion's career highs in the five categories, we'd have quite the underrated fantasy player. A .289 average with 26 homers, 76 RBI, eight steals, and 75 runs is pretty nice production for a late third base pick. The problem is that he's been so fickle we don't know what to count on.

On the flip-side, though, he's only 26 years-old. The potential we've seen is that of a man who can eventually hit .300 with 30 home runs. He's grown more durable and is still learning the strike zone after 1,625 major league at-bats. Plus, he plays in a really favorable hitter's park. The lineup around him is pretty balanced, so the runs and RBI should be available as he improves his stroke.

I'm not quite as bullish on Encarnacion as the others on this list, but he's shown enough potential prior to the age of 26 for us to believe there's more in there.

Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners - It would be easy to give up on King Felix, especially if you owned him in any of the past three seasons. You were waiting for a reincarnation of Dwight Gooden, and instead received Ted Lilly. Again, this is why mentality is so huge in fantasy baseball. You have to be above these negative thoughts because this guy is only going to be 23 years-old this season. His stuff is as good as anyone's ... he just needs to channel it properly. We've seen it in spurts, like the one-hitter in Fenway Park, but we've also seen inconsistency and futility, at times.

Just remember that we've seen the hit-rate go down, the ERA improve, and the strikeout rate improve, between 2007 and 2008. The control, last season, was an issue, but he's young enough to fix this.

I know the Mariners suck, but I'm expecting a banner year from the man formerly glossed King. With natural progression in ERA, I've got it around 3.25 for 2009. Also like Cain, he'll strike out close to 200 while winning 15. So, yeah, he's a stud. A new one, just a few years later than everyone thought.

Carlos Marmol, RP, Cubs - Ok, you got me. Not only is this a homer pick, but he doesn't fit with the theme. People know Marmol, he wasn't overhyped, and he's getting plenty of love this preseason. I just don't want you to sleep on him (plus, I'm wearing his jersey right now, so it would be weird to not jock him at least a little). This alleged closer competition on Spring Training is a dog-and-pony show from Lou Pinella. He knows this kid is a phenom who can possibly become the next Mariano Rivera. There, I said it.

Those who doubt the ability on Marmol don't watch games. They haven't seen the way his slider makes opposing hitters nearly break their back. They haven't seen how he can turn it up for a 98 mile-per-hour fastball on the next pitch. He struck out 114 batters in only 87 1/3 innings last year. That's a lot of missed bats.

He's currently sitting behind Jonathan Broxton, B.J. Ryan, Jose Valverde, and Brian Fuentes in ADP. That's a mistake. He's better than these guys, and it ain't close. Let others draft those guys while you latch onto the best value closer in fantasy baseball.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: New Studs on The Block - Snyder's Edition originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 02 Mar 2009 07:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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FanHouse's Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Tom Herrera — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 03:00:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball fanatics, welcome to FanHouse's very first fantasy baseball draft kit. From the same team that carried your team through the ups and downs of another wacky fantasy football year comes a whole new extravaganza. It's all here: rankings, breakouts, busts, team previews, strategy guides and even a glossary for the beginners. The 2009 Fantasy FanHouse Baseball Draft Kit is packed with the expert advice you need to dominate your fantasy baseball league.

We'll be adding even more great features as we get closer to the season, including live chats with the FanHouse team (click here to learn more about us). Be sure to leave comments if you've got any draft questions -- we're always willing to help!

Overall Cheat Sheets:
Top 150 Mixed | Top 150 NL-Only | Top 150 AL-Only

Positional Rankings:
Catcher | First Base | Second Base | Shortstop | Third Base | Outfielder
Starting Pitcher | Relief Pitcher

Five Guys to Win Your League | Five Guys to Lose Your League
We pick five players that will help you win your league ... or lose it.

Bust a Move: Offseason Edition
Analyzing the fantasy impact of all the big offseason transactions.

New Studs on the Block
Knox Bardeen's Picks | Matt Snyder's Picks
Predicting the next potential stars of the fantasy baseball season.

Fantasy Fallout: Surgery for A-Rod
See how far Rodriguez should drop following hip surgery.

Doing Yard Work: Home Run Guide
Which home run hitters will do some major damage in your league?

Grand Theft: Stolen Base Guide
Which speedsters should you target to satisfy a tough category?

Top Prospects With Upside
Youngsters who are set to make a fantasy impact.

Late-Round Bang for Your Buck
When the opening rounds are over, the bargain hunting begins.

Bust It Big: Players to Fear
Hitters Edition | Pitchers Edition
Beware: you might get burned if you reach for these players in your draft.

Always Be Closing: Tiers in Relief
Why avoid K-Rod? Because a great closer is just a tier away...

Passed Out in the Offseason
Hitters Edition | Pitchers Edition
Need big sleepers? Yeah, we've got a bunch just for you.

Lovin' Those Marlins Hurlers
Florida's pitchers provide an abundance of fantasy value.

Positional Scarcity vs. Category Scarcity
They're both important, but which should matter more as you draft your squad?

Glossary Terms and Helpful Tips
Confused by any fantasy terms or strategy? Here's your one-stop rundown.

Correctly Valuing Closers
Find out when it's OK to pay for saves, and how to maximize value.

Late-Round Middle Relievers
See how two middle relievers can be more valuable than a starter.

Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Cleveland Indians
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
Washington Nationals
Philadelphia Phillies
Florida Marlins
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
Cincinnati Reds

Check back daily at Fantasy FanHouse for more great content!

FanHouse's Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 02 Mar 2009 03:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Dodgers

Matt Snyder — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the ...
Eventual landing spot for Manny Ramirez. Seriously, it's going to happen sooner or later, so we'll just assume it's already happened for the purposes of this post. Obviously, if he either signs elsewhere (unlikely) or sits out this season (as unlikely as the holier than thou media embracing A-Rod), we'll have to re-fantasy-spin the entire offense. He's that important to the lineup.

The Breakout
If you love Matt Kemp this season, get in line. I can't find a place who doesn't have him among their big-time "sleeper" candidates. I'll pass, because I refuse to board his hype train (plus, it's starting to make him borderline overvalued as his overall ADP of 40 illustrates).

I'll get on board with this season being the one when Clayton Kershaw announces his presence with authority. He made 21 starts last year -- which was one more than the number of his age -- which should have provided valuable major league experience for the phenom. He dominated the minors for a few years before getting his chance last season.

His numbers in the bigs were modest for his talent level. He struggled with control, gave up too many home runs, and allowed more than a hit per inning. For the love of God, though, he was only 20. We also saw him strikeout 100 batters in 107 2/3 innings. His minor league strikeout rate was through the roof, so we expect him to miss a lot more bats this year, especially in the light-hitting NL West.

Few phenoms develop into stars at age 21, but Kershaw is going to do so this year. He's special.

The Bust
I'm almost tempted to say Kemp at this point, but I wouldn't go that far. He's a quality option, just don't fall too much in love due to his excessive hype on the internets. You know who I am going to say, assuming he has signed a contract before your league's draft/auction? Yep. Manny.

I realize he's one of the best hitters in the game, but I also realize that he's going to be 37 years-old. The honeymoon period in Los Angeles is over, especially when he signs a two-year deal (and he will). You aren't getting the kind of production he gave the Dodgers in those magical 53 games last year, and Manny doesn't do anything extraordinary. He's got power. Wow, how rare in a fantasy baseball outfielder. Let someone else waste a first or second-rounder on him -- because you aren't getting more than .300, 35 homers, and 110 RBI. You could find that in an outfielder or first baseman in the fifth round.

The Lineup
1. Rafael Furcal, SS
2. Russell Martin, C
3. Matt Kemp, CF
4. Manny Ramirez, LF
5. Casey Blake, 3B
6. James Loney, 1B
7. Andre Ethier, RF
8. Orlando Hudson, 2B

Blake DeWitt and Juan Pierre also figure to garner significant playing time.

The Rotation
1. Chad Billingsley
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Hiroki Kuroda
4. Randy Wolf
5. Claudio Vargas

Jason Schmidt could figure in the mix at some point, but I don't trust his arm to not fall off.

The Bullpen
CL - Jonathan Broxton
SU - Hong-Chih Kuo
SU - Guillermo Mota

The Skinny
o. One person to watch is Billingsley. I would have made him my "breakout" pick above, but last season qualified. After an absolutely horrifying start, he locked himself into a stellar stretch, and by no means was it a small sample. In his last 28 starts, Billingsley went 16-6 with a 2.75 ERA, striking out 169 batters in 180 innings. He'll be turning 25 this season, so the best is yet to come. He's struggled with control in spurts, but those outings are becoming few and far between. Look for him to almost completely eliminate those outings and make the step into the elite echelon this season.

o. It's going to be possible in many leagues to steal Furcal. There are obvious injury concerns, but sometimes people have a penchant to let guys like this fall way too far. Remember, he was healthy enough to wreak havoc on the Cubs in the playoffs -- not to mention how hot he was to start the season before his injury. I'm expecting a .300 average with lots of runs scored and a return to the 25 steal range.

o. Ethier and Loney aren't great options due to some power deficiency -- for their respective positions -- but you could do much worse. Both are still young enough -- Ether will be 27, Loney 25 -- to see some more power growth anyway. Regardless, they'll help you in average and RBI after being acquired late in the draft (or cheap in the auction).

o. Broxton's stuff is too electric to not translate smoothly into the closer role. He's one of the better options in the National League.

o. Finally, don't get too excited about Hudson. He's only played more than 140 games twice. He's never stolen more than 10 bases, and his marginal power will be even less effective in Dodger Stadium. We're looking at a .280 average, 10 homers, 55 RBI, 65 runs, and eight steals -- which is assuming he stays healthy. Those are NL-only numbers, folks.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Dodgers originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Sun, 01 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Preview: Diamondbacks

Matt Snyder — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the ...
Still incredibly young Diamondbacks. It seems like when the Backs failed to keep the momentum going after an early season charge, people forgot this was still a very young team. The overwhelming majority of the roster is younger than 30, and most of the offense is younger than 27. This means we have a large group of guys who have the potential to throw up career-year type numbers at the drop of a hat. Be ready ...

The Breakout
As I said, there's reason to believe a handful of these guys could drastically exceed expectations. When you are sitting 25, 26, or 27 years-old with several years of experience, it's really only a matter of time before the bust-out year happens. Of the group, though, we're going to go with Stephen Drew. Let other people grab Derek Jeter or Rafael Furcal after the "big three" shortstops are gone. You can settle on the fourth best shortstop for this season in Drew.

Now, you might look at Drew's numbers from last season and think that was his breakout (.291 average, 21 jacks, 67 RBI), but you'd be mistaken. He's going to be 26 this season, and he's notched 1,478 plate appearances. That's prime territory to really start coming into his own.

Also, he already started raking in the second half of last season. In his last 86 games he hit .312 with an .887 OPS. During that time, he hit 12 home runs and drove home 42. Building upon those numbers with natural expected improvement, you can envision Drew coming with a .315 average, close to 30 home runs, and around 90 RBI this season. We'll take those for the man going sixth at shortstop any day.

The Bust
I'd love to say no one. I really don't see many of these guys being drafted too high, and many -- as I've said a few times already -- look poised for a breakout season. Let me just say this: If you are drafting a 33 year-old Eric Byrnes in hopes of the 21-homer, 50 stolen base season he provided two years ago, you will be disappointed. The Snakes are building this team as an NL West dynasty. With the development of Justin Upton and Chris Young, in addition to wanting the bats of Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, and Chad Tracy all in the lineup together, Byrnes is going to be riding pine more often than not. I would say Byrnes was a nice candidate to be moved at the trade deadline, but, man, does he have an awful contract. There's no way someone's picking up near $7 million a year for this guy in this economic climate.

The Lineup
1. Felipe Lopez, 2B
2. Stephen Drew, SS
3. Chris Young, CF
4. Conor Jackson, LF
5. Chad Tracy, 1B
6. Mark Reynolds, 3B
7. Justin Upton, RF
8. Chris Snyder, C

Byrnes will play LF some days, and then the Backs have the option of playing Jackson at first and Tracy at third. This would leave Reynolds on the bench, but any combination of that lineup would work with the positional flexibility. Also, Miguel Montero could challenge Snyder for at-bats behind the plate.

The Rotation
1. Brandon Webb
2. Dan Haren
3. Doug Davis
4. Jon Garland
5. Max Scherzer

The Bullpen
CL - Chad Qualls
SU - Tony Pena
SU - Jon Rauch
SU - Tom Gordon

The Skinny
It's a buyer's market in fantasy when it comes to this group. There are two elite pitching options (Webb and Haren, obviously), but the many of the rest could be argued to be undervalued this season.

o. Scherzer has the capability to become a front-line rotation member. He'll take a big step this season. In fact, if not for Drew, he would have been my above choice for "breakout." Do not sleep on the man with the odd eye.

o. Once being freed from the Nationals, Lopez raked for the Cardinals. Now he's got his brand new job in the desert. You won't ever see his power come back (23 homers in '05, never more than 11 in any other of his eight seasons), but he'll run, score runs, and provide decent average. He's a late-rounder in all leagues, but a good save if you get screwed out of a quality second baseman.

o. Last year represented a big step backward for Young, but let's remember he's still only 25. We've seen enough from him to believe he could one day join the 40-40 club. If you can handle the hit to batting average, he's a good lower-tier outfielder. It never hurts to hope the third full season is the charm.

o. It doesn't seem like the power is ever going to come with Jackson. That's three full seasons and only 42 career taters. He does provide good batting average and even stole 10 bases last year. He does turn 27 this year, so it's not unheard of for someone to develop major league power at this point in his career. At 6'2" 225, it's not like he's small.

o. Reynolds is only 25. He's already hit 45 homers, but he struck out 204 times last year. Reports from camp state that Reynolds is working on the strike zone and is making every effort to cut down on his whiffs. If that happens even a little bit, you have serious power from the corner here. He's capable of 40 home runs a season. Those 11 steals from last year would just be gravy.

o. If there is one person I'd truly avoid, it's Garland. I know he's moving to a much easier division in which to pitch, but his numbers have badly trended downward for the past four seasons. He appears to be getting worse before our very eyes. I'm thinking the league switch makes him more valuable to many of your fellow owners. Just as you would with any tofu product, politely pass.

o. Finally, it still just feels like Upton is a year away from the big payoff. I say that because he still hasn't completely grasped the strike zone and the ratio numbers haven't trended upward enough yet. That being said, do you really want to miss out on it when it happens? Once you get your three full-time outfielders, it can't hurt to take a gamble on the young stud.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: Diamondbacks originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Sat, 28 Feb 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: Five Guys to Win Your League

Matt Snyder — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 13:30:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

You don't win your league by not screwing up a first-rounder. You aren't going to find them on this list, because those picks should be the obvious studs like Albert Pujols, A-Rod and Hanley Ramirez. You can, however, win your league by fleecing your league-mates in the late rounds. Let's put it this way: if someone drafted Josh Hamilton, Cliff Lee, Edinson Volquez, Ryan Ludwick and Carlos Quentin with late picks last season, how do you think that team fared?

Assuming they didn't screw up their early picks, it would be a championship team, no question. With this in mind, let's try to find five guys who will similarly exceed their draft value in 2009.

B.J. Upton, Rays - Lost in the Rays' brilliant team play last regular season was the utter disappointment Bossman Junior was to fantasy owners. His home run total went down from 24 to 9, his average plummeted from .300 to .273, and he had 15 fewer RBI. The good news, however, is that he still found ways to progress in other areas. He doubled his stolen base total (44 in '08), his strikeouts went down and he walked 97 times (up from 65). This shows that he grew as a complete baseball player. Considering that he's only turning 25 years old this season, there is reason for hope.

Oh, and this: Upton played last season with a torn labrum in his shoulder. He's now progressing and should be ready to go after missing only a week or so of the regular season. Plus, the power already started to return before he went under the knife. He raked in the ALDS and ALCS, to the tune of seven home runs and 15 RBI in only 11 games.

So, what can we expect? With the added growth in plate discipline, and a now healed shoulder, I don't think a .300 average with 30 jacks, 100 RBI and 50 steals is out of the question. Those are first-round numbers, and he's going to get picked much later than that.

Rather have him than ... Alfonso Soriano

Justin Verlander, Tigers - Every trend pointed to Verlander being an absolute monster last season, and he awarded fantasy owners with a steaming pile of crap in return. He was downright embarrassing through his first eight starts, sitting at 1-6 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He closed the season with a stretch that was even worse, as he was abused for a 7.20 ERA in his last six starts. In the middle of that, though, he had a long stretch where he wasn't totally useless (9-7, 3.61, 105 strikeouts in 122 innings).

We can sit here all day debating what was wrong with Verlander; his velocity was down a bit for most of the season. He didn't really show any signs of injury, and he shouldn't have been fatigued from overuse, as he threw almost exactly the same number of innings as he did in '07. The fact of the matter is that he still has stud potential.

He's going to be a risky pick, because there's no guarantee he can return to form at the snap of a finger. Still, he's only 26 when the season begins, and that's awfully young to give up on the guy. He's definitely worth a mid-to-late round pick as your third starting pitcher. The chances of him developing into a front-line ace are good enough to warrant that.

Rather have him than ... Edinson Volquez

Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies - Speaking of guys who screwed over their fantasy owners last season, it's time to talk about the former Rookie of the Year. Unlike Verlander, however, Tulowitzki wasn't really ever totally healthy. In fact, the entire Rockies season by June was a disaster, and he was as big a problem as anyone. You can write the season off due to his health and the dreaded sophomore slump. What we do know is that he's only 24 years old, and in 2007 he put up really solid numbers. He hit .291, drove in 99, went deep 24 times, and scored 104 times. This was mostly due to a late surge as well, because he did most of his damage in the second half.

Last season, he did hit .327 in his last 62 games after returning from injury, but the power never really came back. Now he's had an entire offseason to refocus himself and get completely healthy.

I'm fully expecting a bounce-back season from the youngster. He plays in the thin Colorado air, and he's already shown the potential to get scorching hot.

Rather have him than ... Derek Jeter

Chris Davis, Rangers - I was initially reluctant to include Davis on this list, because he's bound to get tons of love across the 'net. The fact of the matter, though, is it would be irresponsible to leave him off this list. He is a home run machine. He hit 36 total as he bounced around the minors in 2007. He hit 13 taters in only 46 minor league games last season before getting the call to the majors. All he did in his time in the bigs was hit 17 bombs in 80 games.

He'll be 23 this season, and he's playing in a spectacular hitters' park. More runs were scored in the Ballpark at Arlington last year than any other, and it ranked fifth in home runs.

While plate discipline could be an issue (20 walks and 88 strikeouts), I'm confident the Rangers will stick with the youngster at first base all season. This means you are definitely going to see an excess of 30 home runs -- and I personally think he'll make a run at 40.

The Rangers have an incredibly exciting young offense, and Davis is going to be a big part of it. Get aboard the train early, and enjoy the ride.

Rather have him than ... Aubrey Huff

Adam Jones, Orioles - It's only a matter of time before this kid "gets it." He's got all the tools to be one of the best outfielders in the league, and the O's let him sniff regular playing time last season as a 22-year-old. His numbers were modest, as he's still a year or two away. He has the potential to be a 30 homer-20 steal guy down the road, while flashing a stout batting average.

File Jones away as a deep sleeper, because there is no guarantee he'll start to completely blossom this season. He's the type you keep stashed on your bench, in hopes that he turns into a productive fantasy player during this season.

Rather have him than ... Hideki Matsui

Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: Five Guys to Win Your League originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 27 Feb 2009 13:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: Bust It Big, Pitcher Edition

Will Brinson — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 12:10:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Sleepers and busts are played out phrases in the fantasy lexicon. They get routinely abused each year, but they're still important. Why? Well, in the case of the latter, you simply don't want to draft players who will stink. "Stink," of course, is relative. You'll see why in the following list of hitters you need to stay away from in 2009.

CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees: There is not much, statistically speaking, to indicate that Sabathia is going to have a miserable 2009 in New York. Yes, he just signed a monster contract, and yes, he was a candidate for the NL Cy Young last year. Oh, and yes, he has been incredibly consistent the last five years (188 IP, 10+ W). So why the hate? Well, mainly because his average draft position is 32, with a high draft spot of 10. 10! Look, it's entirely likely that Sabathia will have a nice season, and if you can land him as your ace in the third or fourth round, then yeah, you pull the trigger, especially with that Yankee offense behind him.

But the reality is that CC is six innings shy of 500 for the past two years, and that's a scary number -- particularly with the way Milwaukee treated his arm down the stretch. But most importantly, it's made all the scarier if you're burning an early pick on Sabathia and hinging your fantasy season to that arm.

Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox: Floyd's not blowing anyone away with his ADP of 142. Obviously. But he's being drafted at roughly the same time as folks like David Price, Adam Wainwright, Javier Vazquez and Brett Myers (notably before the latter two names). Regardless of Floyd's nice 2007, I want all four of those guys instead.

Why? Well, namely because, as I mentioned before his second-half falloff last year, the peripherals don't back up Floyd's performance. Specifically, his hit rate (h%) which showcased the difference between his first and second halves: 3.69 ERA /1.15 WHIP (23 percent) versus 4.22/1.38 (31 percent). Feel free to guess which half is which. And yes, I tend to think the second half will be more indicative of his 2009 performance than the first half.

Rich Harden, SP, Cubs: I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong about Harden in the second half of last year; he somehow managed to stay, for the most part, healthy in 2008. And now, apparently, he wants to start 30 games. Excuse me while I chuckle heartily at Harden, the Cubs and anyone in my fantasy league who starts sliding him up their draft board.

Make no mistake though, his value will rise as the season approaches, especially fueled by his ridiculous second half from last year, in which he posted a 2.00 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP and K'd an insane 98 in 81 innings. Don't be fooled into paying whatever it is you have to pay for him; save yourself the heartache and just let the Cubs fan in your league draft him.

Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Mets: There are myriad reasons why K-Rod should be avoided in 2009. First of all, he got straight paid this offseason. Regardless of what statistics say re: pre and post contract years (and it's very vague) I'd be lying if I said someone signing a big deal didn't scare me.

Secondly, his pitching motion has had folks freaking out for years, waiting for a major injury. Thirdly, his peripherals show that he secretly had his worst statistical season all while breaking the MLB saves record in 2008. And finally, J.J. Putz is waiting in wings in New York to pounce on that closer's gig if K-Rod falters at all, whether to injury or poor pitching. Oh yes, and feel free to tack on that 74 overall ADP -- higher if your league really rewards saves.

Carlos Zambrano, SP, Cubs: (Aside: no, I'm not just wasting column space on pulling Matt Snyder's strings. I can do that via email.) Zambrano was an anchor for fantasy staffs, posting a sub-4.00 ERA and striking out somewhere in the range of 175-210 batters a season, all while pitching over 200 innings. 2008 started out nicely (seemingly anyway) as he recorded a 2.84 ERA and won 10 games in the first half of the season. But his second half was a totally different animal, as he went just 4-3, walking 34 in just 68 innings.

More terrifying to me is that in order to grab him, you have to use what appears to be a 112-range draft pick. That's not too horrible, but the guy's coming off a pathetic second half (no-hitter excepted) and he's dealing with shoulder injuries that are keeping him out of the WBC and eye issues that have him debating Lasik surgery. Guh. Someone else can pay for that fun this year.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: Bust It Big, Pitcher Edition originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 27 Feb 2009 12:10:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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