Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse

FanHouse Fantasy Draft: Year 101

Matt Snyder — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 08:15:00 EST

Just as Knox posted his results from our recent FanHouse draft, I'll throw mine on here, too, for your critiques. Mr. Bardeen laid out the league format here. Year 101 is my team name, as you can see from the title to this piece, and it has a little something to do with my favorite baby bears.

Somehow, I ended up with the top pick in the draft. I haven't had this happen to me in years. Honestly, I can't remember the last time I picked first in fantasy baseball or football. Well, I'd been preaching -- since A-Rod fell injured -- what to do with the top choice. I had to put my money where my mouth was.

1 (1) David Wright, 3B -- Without A-Rod around, the next best third baseman is either Aramis Ramirez, Evan Longoria or Kevin Youkilis. You know what those three have in common? They don't hold a candle to Wright. Huge gap from tier-one to tier-two at 3B, and that was my deciding factor. Plus, I predicted him to win the NL MVP this season. I'll just jump fully on his bandwagon.

2 (24) Dustin Pedroia, 2B -- With Ian Kinsler and Chase Utley already long gone, Pedrioa was an easy choice as the lone remaining tier-one second basemen.

3 (25) Carlos Lee, OF -- There aren't many players around who are money-in-the-bank consistent, but Lee is one of the few. Since 2003, he's been good for at least 28 home runs and 99 RBI every season -- and that was with only playing 115 games last season.

4 (48) Aramis Ramirez, CI -- The value here to establish a power-hitting stud at my CI spot overruled any thoughts that I shouldn't take another 3B just yet. I just grabbed 30 homers and 120 RBI without hurting my batting average.

5 (49) Dan Haren, P -- I wanted to grab one ace in the first five rounds, and there isn't much reason Haren should still be on the board at pick 49.

6 (72) Hunter Pence, OF -- I'm looking for a big breakout season from Pence this year -- but I already told you that.

7 (73) Adam Dunn, 1B -- First base is pretty shallow, actually, once you get past the elite guys. Fortunately, Yahoo! allows you to play Adam Dunn at 1B. I'll take 40 jacks from my first baseman in the 7th round any day.

8 (96) J.J. Hardy, SS -- Yeah, I'm stocking up on power. That's kind of my style. Passing on a shortstop with 30-homer potential at pick 96, however, is not.

9 (97) Yovani Gallardo, P -- I believe Gallardo will become a fantasy ace eventually, and this season could be the one where it happens.

10 (120) Johnny Damon, OF -- I've said it before, but it bears repeating. Damon is very underrated in fantasy circles. At this point in the draft, he's a great five category guy. Last year he went .303 with 17 jacks, 71 RBI, 95 runs and 29 stolen bases.

11 (121) Carlos Zambrano, P -- Contrary to a belief held by many, Big Z is not a strikeout pitcher anymore. He will get you wins -- at least 13 in every season since 2003 -- without hurting you in ERA or WHIP, though.

12 (144) Carlos Marmol, P -- Yeah, I know he's not the Cubs closer anymore. I also know he's going to strike out more guys than Chien-Ming Wang, all the while keeping his ERA in the low 2.00s and WHIP hovering around 1.15. He'll also vulture me about 7 saves and 5 wins. Plus, he's my favorite player! Remember, fantasy players should still be fans. We aren't robots.

13 (145) Pablo Sandoval, C -- I love that Yahoo! lets me take him at catcher, especially in a two-catcher league. In light of this fact, I believe this pick was a relative coup.

14 (168) Delmon Young, OF -- My fourth outfielder has a chance at .300-20-20. Not too shabby. Plus, at least you can't accuse me of not sticking to my guns.

15 (169) Chad Qualls, P -- With these next two picks, I showed how you can get 60 saves in the mid-teens rounds. You can take Francisco Rodriguez in the 4th round. I'll wait on guys like this.

16 (192) Matt Capps, P -- In addition to the value mentioned above, Capps has unGodly control. He's only walked 33 guys in 217 1/3 career innings. When WHIP is one of the five categories, Capps provides a large boost.

17 (193) Billy Butler, UT -- As I said in the Royals preview, I believe Butler is more primed for a breakout campaign than more-touted teammate Alex Gordon. I can play him at 1B and move Dunn to the outfield if I want, so he does add flexibility.

18 (216) Kaz Matsui, MI -- In waiting this long to fill the MI spot, all I can really ask for is steals without killing my average. Matsui offers both, plus he has the potential to score a ton of runs in front of Houston's big boppers.

19 (217) Adam Lind, OF -- More evidence I put my money where my mouth is, as I hyped Lind as the breakout player on the Blue Jays. He offers good average and power capability from my fifth outfielder.

20 (240) Chris Carpenter, P -- I can't say I'm confident he stays healthy an entire season, but at pick 240 can you really blame me for rolling the dice? We're talking about a former elite-echelon pitcher who should still be in his prime.

21 (241) Yadier Molina, C -- All you can ask out of your second catcher is to not kill your batting average. Molina hit over .300 last year.

22 (264) Hideki Matsui, Bench -- I just figured I needed another Matsui on my roster. It felt right. (Seriously, I have a potential 100 RBI guy on my bench)

23 (265) Matt Lindstrom, P -- Here are some very cheap saves. He fell this far likely because of his spring injury, but he's supposed to be ready for Opening Day. Even if that is pushed back a week, what does that cost me? Two saves? Three?

24 (288) Wandy Rodriguez, P -- He made significant strides the past two seasons. Now his ERA is getting into the mid-3.00s, the strikeouts are getting close to one per inning, and he had a winning record for the first time in his career last year.

25 (289) Travis Hafner, Bench -- Like most of you readers, I think he's done as a productive power hitter. Still, just three seasons ago he hit 42 homers, drove home 117 and hit .308 -- in only 129 games. He's still only 31 years-old, and he isn't incredibly out of shape. With a no-risk pick like this, why not?

26 (312) Scott Downs, Bench -- He had a 1.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP last season, and Cito Gaston has recently indicated he'll use Downs in closing situations unless B.J. Ryan cleans up his act. For Mr. Irrelevant of our draft -- this was the last pick -- I could have done much worse.

Final Note: The fact that 12 of my 26 players are from the NL Central is mind-boggling to me. In no way was this a plan. I don't pay attention to things like that. I just take the players I want.

FanHouse Fantasy Draft: Year 101 originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 02 Apr 2009 08:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Live Fantasy Baseball Chat, 1 PM ET

Matt Snyder — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 10:31:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Expert Chats, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Your fantasy baseball draft will most likely take place within the next three weeks. Are you properly prepared? If the answer is no, fret not. We'll just assume you've already been through the free fantasy baseball draft kit and get right into specific questions you might have.

Do you have the ninth pick and think it's too early to take your favorite player? Maybe you have been offered a keeper league trade and aren't sure you are getting the better end of the deal. With FanHouse, you get the personal touch. We'll get all of your questions -- as long as they are relevant and somewhat clean, of course, during our LIVE CHAT at 1 PM ET.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;a href=&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot;http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php?option=com_mobile&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;task=viewaltcast&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;altcast_code=a102879f69&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot; &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;Fantasy Baseball Chat 2.0&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/a&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;

Live Fantasy Baseball Chat, 1 PM ET originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 25 Mar 2009 10:31:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Spring Training Stats: When They Matter, When They Don't

Matt Snyder — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 15:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Dan Haren has been awful this spring. Adam Jones is raking, as is Chris Shelton. Michael Bourn has been a completely worthless hitter. Of the above players, two have stat-lines that matter, and two have ones that don't.

You see, judging spring training stat-lines in fantasy baseball can be helpful, but you don't want to get too caught up in it. After all, the games are meaningless. Most established veterans are just going through the motions in attempt to get their body ready for the real season. For them, the stat-lines are meaningless. Thus, I don't care that Haren has sucked thus far. I'd still draft him with confidence.

Let's take a deeper look at a when they matter, when they don't, and why.

When Spring Stats Matter

Up and Coming Players: When a young prospect or player who has only a year or two of major league experience enjoys a stellar spring, it's likely the sign that big things are on the horizon. There's a reason there has been hype about a player in the past, and a solid spring can springboard them into a successful April. This is where Adam Jones fits. We already liked him to come through with a breakout season, but now I'm even more confident about said prognostication. Others on this list: Brandon Wood, Kendry Morales, Pablo Sandoval, Billy Butler, Adam Lind, Ryan Sweeney, Travis Snider and Tommy Hanson.

On the other hand, if a team is hoping a certain player will bust out this year, and he's having a poor spring, that's a bad sign. It could be he's not quite ready, or it could be that he'll never be ready. Michael Bourn is an atrocious hitter this spring, so the Astros can't be happy about that. Others in this situation: Dallas McPherson, Andrew Miller (though I still like him eventually), Mark Reynolds when it comes to his strikeout problem, and Jeff Clement.

Bounce-Back Players: Maybe the player was once a huge prospect and hasn't panned out, or maybe he's just had an off-year or two. A good spring can be the sign the proverbial worm is starting to turn. Knox Bardeen has already discussed the progress being made by Jeff Francoeur. Delmon Young and Nelson Cruz are both players who haven't fared nearly as well in the majors as they could have. With Young, there's enormous hype. With Cruz, he's been a stud in the minors and never replicated them in the majors for an extended stretch. Still, we know both have talent, and they are each having a quality spring. Anthony Reyes came up with high expectations and fell apart, but his change of scenery helped last season, and he's parlayed that into a solid spring.

Again, though, those needing bounce-back campaigns who put up awful spring numbers could simply be done. Matt Clement, Barry Zito and Dontrelle Willis definitely count here.

Trying to Get Healthy: If a veteran player has sat out extended time in the past few years or is hurrying back to play on Opening Day, good spring stats are a sign he's ready. Chase Utley, Chris Ray and Chris Carpenter are showing real signs of being ready to go. Francisco Liriano went through growing pains last season, but he's now showing he's good to go.

Winning a Starting Job: Players in competition for a starting job who stepped up in the spring means they really want the job. They'll also really want to keep it. Don't underestimate motivation. It is a serious part of the game that numbers cannot bear out. Sean Marshall has come out and mowed down opposition all spring while locking down the Cubs' fifth rotation spot. Jason Motte has been stellar, while Chris Perez has been bad, which could clear up things at the back end of the Cardinals bullpen. Chris Dickerson has been sparkling for the Reds, in his attempt to win the left field job. Brett Gardner is majorly outshining Melky Cabrera in the Yankees' center field fight. This all matters.

When Spring Stats Don't Matter

Healthy, Established Veterans: Grady Sizemore is mashing, while Brandon Webb is not throwing well. Randy Johnson is on fire, while Haren is not. Pat Burrell has been an on-base machine, and Torii Hunter can't get on to save his life. What do all these guys have in common? My indifference toward their respective springs. We know what to expect from these guys, and I couldn't care less about their spring production. Some others having bad springs I don't care about: John Lackey, Matt Cain, Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Cordero, CC Sabathia.

Veterans With a Known Ceiling: As opposed to a "bounce-back," these are players who we know don't have fantasy stud inside them -- at least not for an extended period of time. Both Russell Branyan and Chris Shelton are going nuts this spring. Please. There is nothing you could say to convince me either player is ownable in fantasy -- with the possible exception of desperately needing home runs from Branyan in the deepest AL-only leagues. Others on this list: Matt Diaz, David Eckstein, Mike Jacobs (he's usable, but not this good).

Spring Training Stats: When They Matter, When They Don't originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 23 Mar 2009 15:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Spin: Lovin' Those Marlins Arms

Matt Snyder — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 09:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Sleepers, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

As I scrolled through the latest average draft position report on Mock Draft Central, I started to realize how much I love the entire Marlins rotation to provide stellar value this season. I knew I liked them, but as the numbers currently stand, I love them.

Obviously, let's not get nuts and start taking them in the first round or anything, and there are some more valuable than others. The fact is, though, that each of the five possesses very solid value at this point in draft season.

Let's take a look at the value of each, in order of fantasy rank.

Ricky Nolasco
Still only 26, he hasn't reached his peak yet -- and last season was a breakout campaign. He went 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. He struck out 186 hitters in 212 1/3 innings. Let's go deeper, though. Unlike most young pitchers, who have a tendency to wear down as the season progresses, Nolasco became an absolute monster down the stretch.

In his last 21 starts, he went 10-4 with a 2.83 ERA and a stellar 0.93 WHIP. He struck out 146 hitters in 146 1/3 innings. The most staggering thing he did? He only walked 17 batters in this stretch. That's more than 8 1/2 strikeouts per every free pass. This wasn't a fluke, either. The last time he had a full slate in the minors he went 14-3 with a 2.89 ERA. Now he pitches half his games in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dolphin Stadium.

He's well on his way to becoming a lower-tier fantasy ace, the anchor to your staff. A.J. Burnett, Edinson Volquez, and Rich Harden are going in front of him. Go ahead. I'll take Nolasco.

By the way, the Cubs traded him for Juan Pierre. That almost makes me vomit. Actually, there shouldn't be an "almost" in that sentence. I'll be right back ...

Josh Johnson
He began to broach his immense potential as a 22-year-old in 2006, when he finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting. The following season, however, he went through surgery on his throwing arm and faced a long road back. When he returned midway through last season, we didn't quite know what to expect. After his finish, though, he clearly still has top-of-the-rotation type stuff.

The 6-foot-7 righty went 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his 14 starts to close out the season. During this stretch, you can bet he was still working out the kinks and getting himself back into the groove. For this year, he'll have had a full offseason and spring to work with. I expect the strikeouts to go up and walks to go down (it was 77/27 K/BB in 87 1/3 innings).

Do you really want Randy Johnson and Chris Young before him? Their ADP is earlier.

Chris Volstad
Another 6-foot-7 righty, Volstad broke into the league at 21 last July. In 14 starts, he went 6-4 with a sparkling 2.88 ERA. He only allowed three home runs, and he was very consistent. Only twice did he give up four runs and he never allowed more. He worked at least six innings in nine of his 14 starts. He's not a big strikeout guy, but his ability to consistently spin quality starts will give him the chance to pile up wins, while always giving significant help to your ERA.

The control could be a concern, but he's only 22. He'll improve as time passes.

Anibal Sanchez
I covered the reasons to like Sanchez in my Bang for Your Buck column. He's since moved up to 89th in starting pitchers' ADP -- thanks to me, of course -- but he's still coming in behind Taylor Buchholz, Clay Buchholz, Brad Penny, Todd Wellemeyer, Ben Sheets, Kyle Lohse, Phil Hughes (seriously?) and Paul Maholm. I'd take Sanchez over any of these guys for varying reasons.

Andrew Miller
The phenom from North Carolina has yet to hit it big, as most assumed he would while watching him dominate the 2006 College World Series. The Marlins even removed him from the rotation in September. Still, he hasn't even reached his 24th birthday. Is that really the time to give up on someone with such astronomical potential? He was downright dominant in Double-A in 2007, but other than that he's pretty much been taking his lumps in the bigs.

Assuming he's mentally tough enough to learn from his mistakes on the big stage -- if you can call baseball in Miami the "big stage" -- things will start clicking.

o. Control was a big issue last year. He needs to learn the ballpark in which he pitches is very conducive to helping pitchers, and the defense behind him is really solid. This isn't college, so you don't have to miss bats all the time.

o. He's giving up lots of hits, but not an overly large amount of home runs. His absurd .346 allowed BABIP didn't help matters on that front last season. That number should normalize to around .315 or so this season. When that happens, in addition to his increased command, his rate stats will start to come back down.

Miller's easily the least draftable player on here, but he's certainly draftable in deep NL-only leagues due to his vast upside. I'll project 12 wins, 135 strikeouts, a 4.25 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He's not great yet, but those numbers can be used in really, really deep leagues.

Fantasy Spin: Lovin' Those Marlins Arms originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Sat, 21 Mar 2009 09:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: Top Prospects

Knox Bardeen — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 22:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Kids Are Alright, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

For more great features, check out FanHouse's free fantasy baseball draft kit.

Every season, right around this time, there is a large flock of prospects all trying to prove to themselves and the front office that they belong in big league baseball. The key to fantasy baseball success when speaking of these prospects is to know whether or not they are going to make the team out of Spring Training. If not, you need to weigh the time line of each player and figure out if he should be a selection in your fantasy draft or if you'll be spending FAAB money or using waiver priority status on him.

Choose wisely when considering the acquisition of prospects. Most of these guys have bright, rocket-ship upside. But, not all will become effective fantasy assets.

Tommy Hanson, Braves - Unless a string of injuries occur to the Braves rotation this spring, Hanson will start the season at Triple-A Gwinnett. He'll, most likely, be the first starter called up as he was a strikeout machine in the Arizona Fall League and is still showing off his arm this spring. He's good enough to make a front-of-the-rotation impact almost instantly.

Matt Wieters, Orioles - In 437 minor league at-bats Wieters hit .355 with 27 home runs. He's also hitting .367 with three doubles and a home run in 30 spring at-bats. Remember, however, that Wieters has only one professional season under his belt and he's never seen a pitch above Double-A. He'll start the season in the minors and how soon he gets called up will determine his 2009 fantasy value. If you're in a keeper league, he's a must-add immediately.

David Price, Rays - We all remember what Price did in the postseason last year. He also was 12-1 with 109 strikeouts in 19 starts in the minors. Unfortunately for fantasy GMs, Price will start the season back at Triple-A where he can get more experience as a starter and work on a changeup. His value is only in keeper leagues right now. But, he'll contribute in all formats when called up since he pitches on such a good team.

Travis Snider, Blue Jays - Snider performed well in his late-season call-up, hitting .301 in 73 at-bats. He also hit .275 and 19 home runs in combined Double-A and Triple-A last season. Snider enters the season as a lock for a starting outfield slot in Toronto and has huge upside with the power in his bat. He's a very solid last-round selection for your fantasy team.

Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks - Scherzer is a dominating force on the mound with a fastball that touches the upper 90s on the radar gun. He struck out 66 batters last year in 56 innings at the major-league level and was even better in Triple-A, striking out 79 in 53 innings. He's slated as the Diamondbacks' fifth starter and since he's a power pitcher playing on a quality team in a division full of pitchers parks, he should be selected in fantasy drafts starting in the 17th round in mixed leagues.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals - Rasmus actually dropped in the prospect rankings with his typical slow start in 2008. He added a few injuries to the mix and never made it to St. Louis in 2008. He, most likely, won't start the 2009 season in St. Louis either. When healthy, he has huge power upside but he still may have to wait a few months to break into the Cardinals' outfield. Unless you're in a super deep keeper league, it's best to wait on Rasmus until he's called up.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals - The Nationals' top pitching prospect spent last year in Advanced-A and Double-A racking up a 10-3 record with a 2.89 ERA and 134 strikeouts in 134 innings. But, he might be locking up the fifth rotation spot in Washington this spring by dominating hitters. He's pitched 12.1 innings and struck out 16 while only walking two. He hasn't given up an earned run all spring. It's time to start taking late-round fliers on him in fantasy drafts. He could be special in 2009.

Cameron Maybin, Marlins - Maybin is a five-tool prospect with massive upside potential. He's playing very well this spring, hitting .333 in 36 at-bats, and has shown flashes of brilliant speed. The Marlins are set to use Maybin in center field and as their leadoff hitter. He should be drafted in all formats and is my early Rookie of the Year frontrunner.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants - As an 18-year-old in his first professional season Bumgarner struck out 164 batters and only walked 21 in 141.2 innings. He was 15-3 with a 1.46 ERA. Now that was just in Single-A for the Giants, and as lovely as those numbers are, Bumgarner probably won't be joining the Giants' rotation this season at all. Leave him alone unless you have a minor league system to work with in your fantasy league.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants - Sandoval batted .345 in 145 major league innings last season, but more important to fantasy owners he spent time playing first base, third base and catcher. A 22-year-old hitter who jumped from Advanced-A to the Giants in less than a year, Sandoval is also a line drive hitter who should develop some power as he gets older. Don't expect him to be behind the plate in '09, but expect him to be gone by the 19th round in most fantasy drafts.

Gio Gonzalez, Athletics - Gonzalez didn't shine is his brief call-up late last season, but the proof is in the pudding with the dominance he has shown on the mound in his years in the minors. In each of his first five professional seasons, Gonzalez has struck out more than a batter per inning. He may start the season in the bullpen, but his calling is in the front of the rotation. He should be on deep AL-only draft boards as well as long-term keeper leagues. Mixed leaguers should keep an eye on him as soon as he hits the rotation.

Gaby Sanchez, Marlins - It looks as if Sanchez is going to be given the starting job at first base for the Marlins this season. That makes him draft-ready for deep NL-only leagues right now. The 17 home runs and 92 RBI with a .314 batting average for the Double-A Mudcats last season show mixed-league GMs that he should be on their radar. If he shows that power stroke for the Marlins this season, grab him off of the waiver wire as soon as you can.

Rick Porcello, Tigers - Porcello only has one professional season under his belt, but that isn't stopping the Tigers from considering him for a rotation spot out of camp this spring. He's more likely to start 2009 in the minors or in the Tigers bullpen. But, he projects as the future Tigers ace and should be owned in all long-term keeper leagues. Other fantasy GMs should use a wait-and-see approach on Porcello. If he makes the rotation this season, sign him immediately.

Brett Gardner, Yankees - This speedster is locked in a battle for the Yankees' center field job this spring -- a competition most feel he's winning. He's a speedster, stealing 37 bases in Triple-A last year and 39 the year before. His ability to get on base and his great wheels will be a great asset to AL-only owners right now. If he does win the job outright and hits at the top of the order, he will start looking good to mixed-league fantasy teams too.

Neftali Feliz, Rangers - At only 20 years old, Feliz is quickly becoming the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. He might not start the season in Texas, but he already should be owned in all deep keeper leagues. He struck out 154 batters in 127.1 innings in combined Single-A and Double-A action last year and only gave up three home runs. That kind of power pitching with the ability to keep the ball in the park will get Feliz to the big club quickly.

Daniel Murphy, Mets - Murphy impressed in hie short call-up last season hitting .313 in 131 at-bats, but what has solidified his hold on the starting left field job is his .375 batting average with five extra-base hits this spring. As the Mets starting left fielder and likely second hitter in the lineup, Murphy is draftable in all NL-only leagues and should be quickly signed in mixed leagues if he continues to hit like he has over his last 179 at-bats.

Brett Anderson, Athletics - Anderson had a 4.37 strikeout-to-walk ratio in two minor league stops last season and struck out 118 batters in only 105 innings. This groundball pitcher is a must-have in deep keeper leagues and is one of the top prospects in baseball. If he breaks camp in the A's rotation, all fantasy GMs need to monitor his progress and sign him as quickly as he shows that he's ready to live up the all of the hype.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers - Andrus has been given the starting job in Texas at shortstop and that alone should merit a look from AL-only folks. His 54 stolen bases and .295 batting average at Double-A Frisco last season mean that you can safely take a late-round flier on him in mixed leagues as well. He's never going to be a bruiser at the plate, but his high average / great speed combo will work well for you.

Trevor Cahill, Athletics - It only seems like Oakland has all of the pitching prospects in baseball ... OK they do. Cahill struck out 136 batters in only 124.1 combined minor league innings last season and had a WHIP of 1.01. He's only 21 years old and hasn't pitched above Double-A, but Cahill's reported to have the most upside of any of the A's pitching prospects and should be owned in deep keeper leagues. His very outside shot at making the rotation this season means that everyone in the fantasy realm should keep an eye on him and pounce if he's in Oakland next month.

Mat Gamel, Brewers - Gamel has a small chance at winning the starting third base job this spring, but probably will head back to Triple-A for a little more seasoning. He hit .325 with 20 home runs and 99 RBI in combined minor league action last season and projects as a middle-of-the-lineup RBI machine. He has more talent than anyone currently fielding third base for the Brewers so his arrival is shortly due. He should be owned in all deep keeper leagues and even you NL-only owners can consider taking a late-round flier on him, just in case he makes the team.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: Top Prospects originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 20 Mar 2009 22:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Value Update: Chase Utley

Matt Snyder — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 14:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Injury Report, MLB Sleepers, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

It has been over a month since we posted a roundtable on the value of the man who used to be the undisputed best fantasy second baseman in baseball. Within the past month, though, things have changed. Chase Utley has recently started playing in Spring Training games -- two games, six plate appearances and nine innings on defense.

Opening Day for the Phillies is two weeks from Sunday. Do we expect Utley to be completely ready for the season by then, and, if so, how does this alter his fantasy value?

To be succinct, in the true yada, yada, yada sense: Yes, he's going to be ready, and he's now the top second baseman available. He's a first-round pick in all leagues.

We can also elaborate, though:
As Utley works himself into shape, three full weeks of legitimate Spring Training will be more than enough time for him to gain a comfort zone. Veterans rarely play anywhere close to full-time in the spring anyway, so Utley will be cramming his program into a shorter period. He may not start quite as hot as last year, but he'll be playing. That's really all we need to know to anoint him an easy first-rounder.

Another nugget of note, Utley developed this hip condition -- from his he's currently recovering -- in early June. Through June 3rd, Utley was on pace for an MVP season. He was hitting .325 (1.092 OPS) with 21 home runs, 53 RBI, 49 runs, and six stolen bases. That was in only 60 games.

The rest of the way was a different story, though. In his last 99 games, Utley hit only .272 (.808 OPS) with 12 home runs, 51 RBI, 64 runs, and eight stolen bases. That's a drastic decline from the early season surge.

It's possible there were other factors at work. Coming back to Earth from that early season pace was a bit inevitable, and outside factors like BABIP played a role as well. You knew his stats would normalize closer to the mean of his career arc, but those last 100 games were way worse than the Chase Utley we know.

Let's just consider the facts. We know Chase Utley developed a hip condition that required offseason surgery. We know it was discovered in the early part of June. We know his stats took a significant decline after the third day of June. It really sounds like the hip had a lot to do with the decline, doesn't it? Otherwise, that's one huge coincidence.

As things currently stand, there's certainly enough evidence to take a leap with Utley as a solid first-rounder, due to the drop off at second base after the upper-tier.

Fantasy Value Update: Chase Utley originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 18 Mar 2009 14:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Angels

Matt Snyder — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the...
Team about to win about 15 less games this season. Teams in their division have closed the gap on the Angels, who are aging in some spots and not yet developed at others. The biggest factor to consider in fantasy is how many less games their starting pitchers will likely win.

The Breakout
It is time. Brandon Wood has been pined over by fantasy owners for the past two seasons, but he has yet to fulfill his gargantuan promise in several short major league stints. This year, at age 24, he will start to show what he's got.

Thus far, in his 187 plate appearances in the majors, he's shown no grasp of the strike zone, putting up a mind-boggling 55 strikeouts to only four free passes. That's the type of ugliness that can ruin careers. This spring, though, he's doing much better. Through Monday, he had 34 plate appearances and had only struck out three times. He also garnered two walks, and is killing the ball. Wood is hitting .375 with a .719 slugging percentage this spring.

Yes, it's true that spring stats don't necessarily translate, but we're talking about a kid who absolutely obliterates minor league pitching. In 2005, he hit .321 with 43 home runs and 116 RBI in 134 games. Last season, he hit 31 homers and drove home 84 runs in only 103 triple-A games.

This season, he eventually earns a full-time job with the Angels -- and progressively moves his way to the middle of the lineup. He's even slimmed down, in an attempt to gain more agility, in case he needs to play shortstop.

The Bust
Joe Saunders was way too good last year. With a mediocre-at-best and embarrassing-at-worst strikeout rate (only 103 punch outs in 198 innings), you better be able to count on that 3.41 ERA and those 17 wins again. And that, you just can't do. First of all, wins are not to be counted on -- and the Angels aren't winning 100 games again. Secondly, his peripherals show he was the beneficiary of some nice fortune last year. His BABIP was only .267 and the Angels defense played like world beaters behind him. Things will normalize this season.

If you get ready to draft Saunders, ask yourself if you want a 4.30 ERA and 12 wins with those lackluster Ks. I'll take Kevin Slowey, Ted Lilly, or Clayton Kershaw instead (all of whom are behind him on current ADP charts).

The Lineup
1. Chone Figgins, 3B
2. Howie Kendrick, 2B
3. Bobby Abreu, LF
4. Vladimir Guerrero, RF
5. Torii Hunter, CF
6. Juan Rivera, DH
7. Kendry Morales, 1B
8. Mike Napoli, C
9. Erick Aybar / Brandon Wood, SS

The supremely overpaid Gary Matthews will also participate in the outfield logjam. Figgins could lend a hand as well, clearing a better path for Wood, if injury issues arise. In that outfield, it's hard to see them not arising.

The Rotation
1. John Lackey
2. Ervin Santana*
3. Joe Saunders
4. Jered Weaver
5. Dustin Moseley

Nick Adenhart could factor here eventually, but he took some steps backward last season. Also, Kelvim Escobar is slated to come back around the All-Star break. Take note in DL leagues.

*Santana is out for at least a few starts, so downgrade his status a bit in all leagues.

The Bullpen
CL - Brian Fuentes
SU - Jose Arredondo
SU - Scot Shields

The Skinny
It's a pretty deep fantasy squad here, as there are quality options nearly everywhere. Vlad, Abreu, and Hunter aren't what they once were, but they should definitely be owned in all leagues. Lackey is a fantasy ace in larger leagues, and a very solid SP2 in shallow leagues. Fuentes should fill in nicely for K-Rod, but you aren't seeing anywhere near those save chances again. Some others ...

- Figgins is versatile enough to keep himself on the field, but injuries have prevented that the past two seasons. With no power and a chance his speed starts to deteriorate at age 31, he's not as solid a pick as he used to be.

- Several owners in your league may have soured on Kendrick. You see, he's from the same school as Delmon Young, Matt Cain, and even Alex Gordon. We've waited the past three seasons for his big breakout season, and it hasn't come yet, as he's still never played more than 92 games. Remember, though, Kendrick is only 25 years-old. Also remember, Figgins has a .360 career batting average in the minors. This kid has 15-homer, 25-stolen base potential, in addition to winning the batting title. It could happen as early as this year.

- Another still-young player some seem to have written off is Weaver. Though he's spun over 460 innings in his career, he's still only 26. His strikeout rate rose significantly last season, but so did his ERA. Still, I believe he's headed in the right direction and has 15 wins, an ERA under 4.00, a WHIP around 1.25 and 175 strikeouts in him.

- There aren't many, if any, non-closing relievers more valuable than Arredondo.

- Finally, if we could ever get regular playing time out of Napoli, he'd be a monster. Last season he hit 20 home runs and stole seven bases with a .273 average. He did this in only 78 games. At 27 years-old, he's still got some room for growth as well. If he stays healthy and the Angels can overlook his sub-par defense enough to get him in the lineup 125 times, he's going to be an elite fantasy catcher.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Angels originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 18 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Preview: Oakland A's

Matt Snyder — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the...
Most average team in the league. It's weird, because there don't seem to be many real weaknesses on team -- but can you really find a bunch of strengths? I hate the term "very average," but this team is pretty close to the mean across the board. As you scroll through ADP charts, you'll find the A's aren't often towards the top of the lists, but they are definitely there. As I said, average.

The Breakout
This is a really vanilla team here in terms of expectations versus value. There aren't really any great breakout picks. A late, hidden gem in most drafts, however, is Dana Eveland. He's not even going in the top 100 starting pitchers on MDC's latest ADP report. Barry Zito and Rich Hill are, though. C'mon.

Eveland is a 25 year-old who just went through his first full season as a starting pitcher in the majors. The experience gained will be valuable as he moves forward and establishes himself as a quality starter. He actually had a very nice first half of the season, compiling a 3.34 ERA through his first 16 outings. The rest of the way, however, was disastrous (5.70 ERA in last 13 trips). He could have broken down, having thrown a career high in innings, or it's possible he wasn't making adjustments as fast as the hitters facing him. Either way, the experience will be taken as a growing experience.

In the minors, Eveland's highest ERA for a single season was 2.74. He also had a much higher strikeout rate in the minors (nearly one per inning), so he should improve upon the poor showing last year (118 in 168 innings). Control and command will be important early on. Eveland shouldn't be drafted in mixed leagues, but if you notice a few strong outings accompanied by high strikeouts and low walks, it's time to jump on board. He's a SP3 in mixed leagues down the road, and it's conceivable that happens this year.

The Bust
This is going to look like we really despise Matt Holliday, but he's the only choice here. We've already covered him in the draft kit, but he is still just going far too high. I can't justify him being taken over Manny Ramirez, B.J. Upton, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, or Carlos Lee -- yet that is the list of outfielders going after him.

The Lineup
1. Mark Ellis, 2B
2. Orlando Cabrera, SS
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Jason Giambi, DH
5. Jack Cust, RF
6. Daric Barton, 1B
7. Bobby Crosby / Nomar Garciaparra, 3B
8. Kurt Suzuki, C
9. Ryan Sweeney, CF

There's a ton of moving and shaking that could happen here. Eric Chavez would likely bat fifth or sixth and play third base if he ever gets healthy. If they would rather have Travis Buck in the lineup than Cust or Barton, he could play right field and Giambi could play first base. Sweeney, Ellis, and Cabrera could all play musical chairs in the batting order as well.

The Rotation
1. Justin Duchscherer
2. Dana Eveland
3. Sean Gallagher
4. Gio Gonzalez
5. Josh Outman / Dallas Braden

It's entirely possible, actually, that Braden and Outman both squeeze Gio out of the rotation.

The Bullpen
CL - Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler

The Skinny
o. As I said above, it's a pretty vanilla team. There aren't many guys undervalued, but there aren't many overvalued either. You know to avoid Holliday, you know Giambi's going to be bombs at the expense of average, and you know the closers are both solid -- yet splitting time.

o. If you cover yourself with high-strikeout guys in the early rounds, Duchscherer is a solid option to help bring down that ERA and WHIP. His K-rate is really low, but he put up a 2.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP last season, his first as a starter. Now that he's made the transition he'll be more comfortable, and you can expect those numbers to stay in the same ballpark.

o. Devine and Ziegler are both really good closing options after the full-timers have flown off the board far earlier. They should both garner somewhere in the range of 20 saves with really good rate stats. Devine holds more value due to a much higher strikeout rate.

o. Sweeney has a chance to take a big step forward in 2009. He got a chance to accrue over 400 plate appearances in his first season in Oakland, and he displayed good promise. He doesn't really have star potential, but there's a chance you see a .300 average with more than 10 steals and home runs. He should be a good value pick late in AL-only drafts.

o. It's true that Suzuki is still pretty young -- 25 -- but he's never shown the ability to be an offensive star.

o. Finally, Gio Gonzalez has star potential down the road, but he's still not guaranteed a rotation spot. He can be stellar in all four starting pitching categories, especially in this ballpark. If he gets a rotation spot, take heed in deeper leagues. If he gets sent down, pay attention to his progress in the minors.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: Oakland A's originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Tue, 17 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Rangers

Matt Snyder — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the...
Best offense in the league. The Rangers are going to score more runs than any other team, and they don't have an over-abundance of star-power. This means their position players are a veritable fantasy goldmine. On the flip-side, though, their pitching staff is atrocious, especially the starters. Needless to say, if you are picking a Texas Ranger on draft day, he'd probably better be on the offensive side of the board.

The Breakout
Everybody loves Chris Davis, and with good reason. I already covered him in Five Guys to Win Your League, however, so I'll won't take the lazy route and harp on him again. Plus, I'm getting worried he's gaining too much steam. I hate it when that happens. We need to come up with a name for a guy who gets way too popular early in the offseason and ends up getting drafted too high (Matt Wieters is another example for this year).

You know who isn't getting too much love, though? Nelson Cruz.

Cruz has some serious power. He had struggled before last season, but 2008 was special. In just 103 minor league games, Cruz hit 37 home runs and drove in 99. His .342 average and 24 stolen bases weren't bad either. The question then became if he could ever translate those numbers to the bigs. In September, he answered those questions. In only 115 at-bats, Cruz hit .330 with 7 homers and 26 RBI. You can't expect these numbers, but it's entirely possible for him to hit 40 bombs and drive him well over 100 runs. The key will be consistency.

The Bust
Michael Young is still available at shortstop, so his value isn't completely killed. The problem is that he used to have a good amount of power, but that has seriously dwindled. His overall offense performance has gradually diminished since his career year in 2005.

Don't get me wrong, he's still a worthy starter in shallow mixed leagues. The problem is that I just ventured over to an ADP chart and I'm seeing him being drafted above Stephen Drew, Derek Jeter, Troy Tulowitzki, and J.J. Hardy. He's going three whole rounds in front of Hardy, which is an egregious error. Let's compare the two in the five traditional categories (batting average/home runs/RBI/runs/stolen bases) from last season:

Young: .284/12/82/102/10
Hardy: .283/24/74/78/2

Now, consider Hardy's only 26 years old and still improving. Young's 32 and has been in decline for the last three years. Is there seriously a three-round difference there? I'll take Hardy, and you can have Young. Deal?

The Lineup
1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Michael Young, 3B
3. Josh Hamilton, CF
4. Nelson Cruz, RF
5. Hank Blalock, DH
6. Chris Davis, 1B
7. David Murphy, LF
8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Taylor Teagarden, C
9. Elvis Andrus, SS

It's possible the team uses Marlon Byrd or Andruw Jones in center field. This would shift Hamilton to right in place of Cruz. Cruz could also bump Murphy out in left field, in this scenario, or DH. However the suffling goes, Hamilton and Cruz will not lose out on at-bats.

The Rotation
1. Kevin Millwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Scott Feldman
4. Matt Harrison
5. Brandon McCarthy

The Bullpen
CL - Frank Francisco
SU - Eddie Guardado
SU - C.J. Wilson

The Skinny
o. As I said in the intro, lots of offense and very little pitching. Kinsler and Hamilton are elite picks. Young, Cruz, Davis, and Blalock should be owned in most leagues, and the other guys mentioned are worth a look in larger leagues. The only pitcher I would personally want to own in any league if Francisco. He has serious strikeout potential, having punched out 83 in 63 1/3 innings last year. He's a very cheap option at closer.

o. Blalock is still only 28 years-old, and he's battled through a series of really tough injuries since 2005. We've seen the potential in him, as he hit 61 home runs and drove in 200 in his first two full seasons. In this lineup and ballpark, there's no reason to forget about him. He could morph right back into the 30-homer 100-RBI guy we saw when he was 23.

o. Watch the catching battle, because if one of the two gains the overwhelming majority of the playing time, he automatically becomes a nice, cheap option. Both have very promising offensive futures.

o. I won't be taking this leap, but I'd just like to point out that Andruw Jones is so maligned he may be a cheap steal in huge AL-only leagues. Remember, he's apologized for being a colossal bust last season, and he's still only going to be 32 years-old in 2009. Only take him in the absolute last round of a 27-round or bigger monoleague, though. You don't want him to cost you anything, because odds are he's done being productive.

o. Finally, Andrus is up more for his glove than his bat. He has tons of stolen base potential -- he swiped 54 last year in double-A -- but we don't yet know if he'll be running so much with the powerful offense around him. He'll also probably kill your batting average while not providing any power. He's a cheap source of speed in AL-only leagues, but should be ignored in all others.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Rangers originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 16 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Mariners

Matt Snyder — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the...
Team who someone predicted would win the World Series last year. Seriously. When you stop laughing, you can check out the link (he's the top one listed -- though when you see his other atrocious picks you won't be surprised). Was I any better? Glad you asked. I actually took Mr. Downey to task before Opening Day. You can check the rest of my stuff if you wish, as there were some misses in there.

Anyway, it's safe to say expectations are a slight bit lower heading into '08.

The Breakout(s)
Jose Lopez had his breakout season last year, but he continues to fly under the radar. He's currently going 152 overall (using MDC's ADP), which is a whopping 72 picks behind Robinson Cano. That's six rounds in a 12-team league. There's no way the gap between the two should be that large.

Lopez is still only 25 years-old, and showed drastic improvement from 2007 to 2008. He has the innate talent to continue this growth into a very solid major league hitter. It's reasonable to expect .300 with 20 home runs, 95 RBI, 85 runs, and 10 steals.

If you want someone a little less obvious, Wladimir Balentien is a deep league option. The 24 year-old has 30 home run/20 steal potential down the road. He won't even sniff those numbers this season, but there will come a time the Mariners have to just let him adapt at the big league level. Deep AL-only leaguers, take note.

The Bust?
There really aren't guys being overvalued on this team. It's a pretty equal mix of being maligned and buried up in the northwest corner of our country. There are plenty of stay-away guys here, but none that jump out as being incredibly overvalued.

But, since I have to pick one, I'll go with Kenji Johjima. He's about to fully lose his job to a young up-and-comer, and he's still going to high in drafts. Yeah, it's only 20th among catcher's ADP, but I see Yadier Molina, John Baker, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Chris Snyder, and Taylor Teagarden behind him. Whether it's playing time or upside, there's no reason to draft Johjima over any of those guys.

The Lineup
1. Ichiro Suzuki, RF
2. Jose Lopez, 2B
3. Adrian Beltre, 3B
4. Ken Griffey, DH
5. Russell Branyan / Mike Sweeney, 1B
6. Franklin Gutierrez, CF
7. Kenji Johjima / Jeff Clement, C
8. Wladimir Balentien, LF
9. Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

They really need to teach someone like Junior, Johjima, or Clement to play first base. Wow, that's ugly. Newly acquired Ronny Cedeno will accrue at-bats all over the infield. Endy Chavez will be in the outfield mix.

The Rotation
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Erik Bedard
3. Jarrod Washburn
4. Carlos Silva
5. Brandon Morrow

Garrett Olson and Ryan Roland-Smith will also figure into the mix. Too bad they can't just dump those absurd contracts of Washburn and Silva in favor of a youth movement.

The Bullpen
CL? - Mark Lowe
SU - Miguel Batista
SU - Tyler Walker
SU - David Aardsma
Eventual closer - Chad Cordero

Needless to say, you want no part of this mess, as I said in my Always Be Closing entry.

The Skinny
o. In shallow leagues, you won't be seeing many Mariners fly off the board. In a 12-team mixed league with a normal-sized roster, only Ichiro, Lopez, Beltre, King Felix, and Bedard should be drafted. I could see Clement as a last-round catching gamble in those as well. Overall, I'd feel a lot better about this team if they had an Adam Dunn/Manny Ramirez type power hitter in the middle of the order. There's just no protection for a nice top three in the batting order.

o. I did love Morrow earlier, but now he's having some arm issues. That's scary in a guy this young who throws so hard. If he's totally healthy, I could recommend him in mixed leagues. He's got good enough stuff to stick as a high-quality starter.

o. I've already discussed the value that can be found in Beltre and Betancourt. I also already discussed my thoughts on Felix Hernandez.

o. Gutierrez has flashed 20/20 potential in the minors, but never really came into full-time at-bats in Cleveland. Assuming the Mariners leave him alone in center-field, he's got the chance to make an impact in AL-only leagues. He'll need a year of growth before the big payoff comes in 2010, though.

o. Do not draft Washburn or Silva. In any league. Please.

o. Finally, I could see Cordero paying dividends in the second half of the season. He's a good closer who is battling back from injury. We saw B.J. Ryan rush back last season and put up decent numbers. Just keep him in mind in large AL-only roto leagues. He could be a very cheap source of 10-15 saves.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Mariners originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Sun, 15 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Twins

Knox Bardeen — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 16:15:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the...

Absolute best team in baseball that you've never heard of. The Twins don't spend a lot of money nor do they make a lot of headlines. What they are good at, however, is winning. The Twins won the American League Central Division every year from 2002 to 2004 and again in 2006. In 2007 they finished third in the division and in 2008 they lost a one-game playoff to just miss the post season. This team wins with a small-ball, almost National League feel or approach.

They finished third in the American League in batting average last year, but finished last in home runs. Good young pitching will anchor this staff and the team will more than welcome back Francisco Liriano to the rotation. Joe Nathan is one of the best closers in baseball, but the bullpen is a sign of weakness for the Twins.

The Breakout

The problem up to this point in the career of Alexi Casilla hasn't been skill, it's been durability. He posted less than 200 at-bats in 2007 and only 385 in 2008, all due to injuries. He's healthy going into 2009 and there are a few reasons why this speedster batting near the top of the Twins lineup could breakout. Casilla raised his walk rate by more than 50% from 4.5% in 2007 to 7.5% in 2008. He also lowered his strikeout rate from 15.3% to 11.7%. Both of those statistics will lead to Casilla getting on base much more in 2009. That means his wheels can be put in motion more often. Casilla also raised his flyball rate from 21.6% to 33.5%. This could be a sign of a little bit of pop from his bat this season. Casilla batted .281 last year. He's got a good contact rate of 88% which could lead to an improved batting average. All this being said, Casilla could hit .290 and steal 25-35 bases. He might also hit 10 home runs in 2009. I'd call that a breakout, wouldn't you?

The Bust

Nick Blackburn stepped up in a big way last season for the Twins. The team needed lots of starting pitching help with all of the injuries and departures and Blackburn was a crucial stop-gap resolution. He won 11 games in 2008 and sported a 4.05 ERA. There is a problem though. Blackburn gave up 224 hits last season in only 193.1 innings. He wasn't terribly overpowering either with only 96 strikeouts and 39 walks. To make matters worse, batters hit .292 against him and he gave up more than a home run per nine innings. Blackburn is not a second year pitcher that you want to take a gamble on. He has probably topped out with 11 wins and his ERA is sure to spike in '09.

The Lineup
1. Denard Span, LF
2. Alexi Casilla, 2B
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Michael Cuddyer, RF
6. Jason Kubel, DH
7. Joe Crede / Brian Buscher / Brendan Harris, 3B
8. Nick Punto, SS
9. Carlos Gomez / Delmon Young, CF

The Rotation
1. Francisco Liriano
2. Scott Baker
3. Kevin Slowey
4. Glen Perkins
5. Nick Blackburn

The Bullpen
CL - Joe Nathan
SU - Jesse Crain
SU - Matt Guerrier / Luis Ayala

The Skinny
o. Joe Mauer is, once again, dealing with an injury. This time it's inflammation of one of the Sacroiliac joints (lower back pain). Nobody is sure how badly he's hurt, but he hasn't played in a spring game yet and his being in the starting lineup on Opening Day is in jeopardy.

o. The signing of Joe Crede turns the third base battle into a three-way race. While many think Crede is the instant favorite he's sure not doing anything special this spring to earn the job. He's batting .100 in 20 at-bats while Brian Buscher is nine for twenty with two doubles and a home run.

o. Not only does Carlos Gomez not know if he has an every-day job in the Twins outfield, he has no idea where he'll bat in the lineup. He's being used all over the batting order in an effort to try and find a spot where he helps the most. Gomez has loads of speed. If he can figure out how to get on base, therefore earning him every-day playing time, he could easily steal 40 bases. But, it's all about getting on base; something he hasn't been able to do with any regularity so far.

o. Francisco Liriano went 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA in his final 11 starts after his promotion from the minor leagues. If he can recover from Tommy John surgery, Liriano has all the tools to be a front of the rotation starter. If he starts 30 or more games in 2009, Liriano could easily win 15 games and strike out 200. So far this spring he's struck out 12 and only walked two in 12.1 innings.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Twins originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Sat, 14 Mar 2009 16:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Tigers

Matt Snyder — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 15:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the...
Most disappointing team of 2008. This goes for real and for fantasy. Nearly the entire team was a massive bust last year -- I said nearly, because the man in the picture to the right was immune in fantasy -- as the team finished in last place. They've made some changes, and the players coming back need to just play better.

The Breakout
You could say the Rays gave up on Edwin Jackson too early, but that would be ignoring their ample supply of starting pitching. They didn't give up on him, they simply didn't need him. He'll flourish now that he has a definite rotation spot. You could argue he deserves it, after suffering through a tremendous amount of lumps at the major league level. He's only 25 years-old, but he's already logged 106 career appearances. For the most part, he got beat up until last season. In 2008, though, he went 14-11 with a 4.42 ERA. He still has control issues (77 walks in 183 1/3 innings last year), but his stuff is good enough to evolve into a very solid fantasy pitcher. He definitely has the power, and he's had ample time to learn how to pitch properly with it.

It's time to see Jackson flash an ERA close to 4.00, and to strikeout close to 150 hitters. You'll get good value on him in AL-Only leagues.

The Bust
Armando Galarraga was a huge surprise last year. There's a reason for that. His track record prior to 2008 was awful. He spent 2001-2006 bumping around in the low levels of the minors while never excelling. In '07 he split his time between double-A and triple-A, but he only went 11-8 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. So there was nothing in his history to indicate a 13-7 record (with a terrible team, too), to go with a really nice 3.73 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The weird part was that 26 years-old is pretty late to just all of a sudden become a quality pitcher (remember, we're including the minors).

In fact, those numbers were too good to be true. His allowed BABIP was a minuscule .243, which means he was incredibly fortunate in terms of hits and runs allowed. Generally speaking, his ERA and WHIP should have been worse, and will be this year. He also probably benefitted from facing competition unfamiliar with him. He already started coming back to Earth with an atrocious September, where he gave up 20 earned runs in only 25 1/3 innings (that's a 7.11 ERA).

The Lineup
1. Curtis Granderson, CF
2. Placido Polanco, 2B
3. Magglio Ordonez, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Carlos Guillen, LF
6. Gary Sheffield, DH
7. Gerald Laird, C
8. Brandon Inge, 3B
9. Adam Everett, SS

The Rotation
1. Justin Verlander
2. Jeremy Bonderman
3. Armando Galarraga
4. Edwin Jackson
5. Johnny Wholestaff*

* The smart money is on Nate Robertson, but Zach Miner is also in the mix. Dontrelle Willis could conceivably win the job, but I have zero confidence in his ability to get meaningful outs. Keep an eye on Rick Porcello. We'll discuss him below.

The Bullpen
CL - Brandon Lyon
SU - Fernando Rodney
SU - Joel Zumaya

The Skinny
o. They have plenty of talent, but there are many question marks who need to rebound from sub-par seasons. To me, there is only one sure thing who is not overrated.

It is Miguel Cabrera. I'm not sure how it happened, but he flew under the radar while leading the American League in home runs (37). He also hit .292 and drove in 127 runs. The homers and RBI were career highs. Cabrera is going to turn just 26 years-old a few weeks into the season. He's gone through the one-year adjustment period to the American League -- and put up those sick numbers above. Needless to say, do not let him fall far.

o. Porcello is a phenom. There's talk of him breaking camp as the five starter, due to his unreal impact early in Spring Training, but he's probably going to start the season in the minors. It's worth keeping an eye on not only his progress, but how the Tigers' rotation is faring as a whole. They may call him up before June if the timing is right.

o. Guillen should be in line for a bounce-back season, but he's not going to hold great value anymore. He'll only be eligible in most leagues at third base or outfield (where he'll play this year). He doesn't run much, and his power isn't big enough to justify mid-round picks.

o. With Bonderman, it's all about where you get him. If you plan to use a bench spot on him very late in the draft -- perhaps even the last round -- you can justify it. He has enough talent, and he's still young enough (26) to pay dividends. He's going awfully late in drafts, but he's still ahead of some guys I'd rather have at this point -- like Anibal Sanchez and Gio Gonzalez.

o. Granderson is overrated in 5X5 formats. There's no way to phrase it more simply. I don't know if it's because he's small and leads off, but he's not a big-time base-stealer. He's swiped only 47 career bases in 747 times on base. As an outfielder, the 20 home runs he's going to hit aren't overly attractive either. Yet he's sitting there 18th on an outfield ADP chart. Johnny Damon does similar things, and he's going 34th on the same list.

o. Polanco is a cheap option at second base who can give you more than five home runs and steals while scoring runs and providing a good average.

o. Finally, I'm avoiding the bullpen. There just isn't enough there without a huge gamble to your ERA and WHIP.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Tigers originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 13 Mar 2009 15:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Indians

Knox Bardeen — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 16:45:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the...
Team that should have more doctors on staff. Lofty expectations turned sour when major keys to the Indians lineup went down with injury in 2008. Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Fausto Carmona, and Jake Westbrook all lost significant time to various maladies. The health and or hasty return of these guys, and the continued health of Kerry Wood are crucial to the Indians having any success in 2009.

The Breakout
What a second half at the plate for Shin-Soo Choo in 2008. In 242 second half at-bats he hit .318 with 12 home runs and 50 RBI. His flyball rate and HR/F ratio seem to be in line with past numbers meaning that the power we saw in 2008 is real and should be here to stay. I'll also share with you a skill set of his that he didn't show in 2008 but could in 2009. Five of the last six seasons in the minors, Choo stole more than 20 bases. In fact, in 2004 he stole 40 bases. If he gets the opportunity to run this season and gets to amass 500 or more at-bats he could easily hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases.

The Bust
Cliff Lee won the Cy Young Award in 2008 and is going to attempt to follow up career marks set in wins, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. Lee's numbers look to be in pretty good shape. He wasn't abnormally lucky (his hit rate was 30.2%) and his K/9 seem right in line with the past too. A few things bother me about Cliff Lee in 2009. First, he stranded an abnormally high (for him) percentage of runners last season. His 78.3% strand rate was a little less than 14 points higher than his 2007 total and more than eight points higher than his career high. If than number heads south, even at a normalization level, his ERA will spike. Lee also pitched 80 more innings in 2008 than he did in 2007. There are lots of pitchers who tend to have problems the year following such a huge uptick in innings thrown. Most important is the fact that a lot of people are drafting Lee as he is a front-line ace. Yes, he won a Cy Young Award. Yes, he won 22 games last year. But, if you draft him in '09 thinking he belongs in the crown with Dan Haren, Brandon Webb and company, you're going to pay way too much.

The Lineup
1. Grady Sizemore, CF
2. Mark DeRosa, 3B
3. Victor Martinez, C
4. Travis Hafner, DH
5. Jhonny Peralta, SS
6. Shin-Soo Choo, RF
7. Ryan Garko, 1B
8. Ben Francisco, LF
9. Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B

The Rotation
1. Cliff Lee
2. Fausto Carmona
3. Carl Pavano
4. Anthony Reyes
5. Aaron Laffey / Jeremy Sowers / Scott Lewis

The Bullpen
CL - Kerry Wood
SU - Jensen Lewis
SU -Rafael Perez

The Skinny
o. Kelly Shoppach had a breakout year in 2008 when Victor Martinez went down. However, with Martinez back and Hafner healthy and playing DH, Shoppach is the odd man out. Unless something happens to give Shoppach the playing time he needs, he's only a back-up fantasy catcher; and should be drafted as such. If Martinez of Hafner go down, or the Indians decide to play Martinez at first base, Shoppach becomes much more valuable.

o. The fifth spot in the rotation was leaning towards being Laffey's before Spring Training. However, Laffey isn't doing a lot to solidify his hold on the spot. Luckily, neither are any of the other competitors. The fifth rotation spot doesn't carry much fantasy weight. But this Cleveland team could win a lot of games in 2009 and if any one of these guys can get hot and win this job, they'd surely help an AL-only staff; maybe even a really deep mixed-league team.

o. Ryan Garko is experimenting with a switch to the outfield. This is great news if it gets SHoppach extra at-bats. It's bad news for either Choo or Francisco, whichever one platoons or loses their job to Garko.o. Kerry Wood has an Average Draft Position of 151.86. He showed us last season that he's built for the closer role. So, if he stays healthy, and this team does win more than last season, Wood's 13th round ADP is way too low. He's a steal there as he could save 40 games in 2009.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Indians originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 12 Mar 2009 16:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Royals

Matt Snyder — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 17:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the ...
Team who finished above the hype-machine Tigers last season. In fact, finishing only 12 games below .500 in a division that was expected to be very strong had to have exceeded expectations in the first year of Trey Hillman's managerial stint. After all, it was the first year since '03 the Royals didn't finish in last. They still have holes, but they also have a good group of young, talented players.

The Breakout
I've said before that Alex Gordon is the type who will explode the second you give up on him. So don't give up. He's not my choice here, though, because I'm just tired of glossing him a breakout candidate. Everyone knows who he is, and frankly, it would be a bit of a lazy pick. Instead, I'm going with Billy Butler.

Butler turns 23 years-old a few weeks into the season, but he's racked up 832 plate appearances to this point in his big league experience. His numbers (.275, 11 homers, 55 RBI) last season were modest, but he's got serious power stored up in that young body. He's 6'1" 240, and once hit 30 bombs in only 121 minor league games (as a 19 year-old). He's been moved back and forth from different levels for the past three seasons, but he's finally ready to stay put in one place this year. That career .977 minor-league OPS will start translating to the majors this season.

I'm expecting .300/25/90 from the power categories. I'd definitely rather have him than Mike Jacobs, who is going four spots higher at first base.

The Bust
I don't think he'd be a terrible pick, but Mike Aviles is going ahead of Yunel Escobar. I wouldn't do that. Again, it's not outrageous, but the Royals just don't have a lot of luster, thus, people aren't drafting their players too high.

You could also file Mike Jacobs here, he's covered down below.

The Lineup
1. Coco Crisp, CF
2. Mike Aviles, SS
3. David DeJesus, LF
4. Jose Guillen, RF
5. Mike Jacobs, 1B
6. Billy Butler, DH
7. Alex Gordon, 3B
8. Willie Bloomquist / Alberto Callaspo / Mark Teahen, 2B
9. Miguel Olivo, C

The Rotation
1. Zack Greinke
2. Gil Meche
3. Brian Bannister
4. Kyle Davies
5. Horacio Ramirez

Former first overall pick Luke Hochevar is going to figure prominently at some point, but I don't think he wins the job in Spring Training just yet.

The Bullpen
CL - Joakim Soria
SU - Juan Cruz
SU - Kyle Farnsworth

The Skinny
o. For a team so maligned in the general public, they're bound to have a lot of players drafted in bigger leagues -- especially AL-only. While no one is worth a high draft pick, eight offensive players (disregard second base, by the way) are worth owning in those varieties. Greinke and Meche should be drafted in most leagues, and Soria is an elite closer. Cruz is one of the better relievers due to his excellent strikeout totals as well.

o. Olivo is a nice late catcher in AL-only leagues. If you can get close to 15 homers without seriously damaging your batting average, it's worth the late snag. He's really late in ADP.

o. Jacobs would likely have been happy to be freed from Dolphin Stadium -- a terrible hitter's park -- but he's moving to Kauffman Stadium, which is actually a worse home run park. And that's all he does well. He's also moving to a new league with unfamiliar pitchers, and will probably begin to lose at-bats to Butler and Ryan Shealy as the season progresses. I would avoid.

o. Keep an eye on Hochevar. He had a humbling experience in the majors last year, racking up a 5.51 ERA in 22 starts, but he's got a lot of natural ability. He was actually rushed, because his 2007 minor league wasn't a great. The Royals promoted him last season after only three solid starts. He needed more seasoning. He's 25 this year, and a nice start in triple-A should propel him to taking a rotation spot from either Bannister, Davies, or Ramirez in May.

o. Dare I say it, but I really like the chances for Crisp to become a solid fantasy player. He didn't seem to adjust well to the spotlight in Boston -- especially since he was anointed the heir to Johnny Damon's center-field job. His only two above average OPS seasons were his last two in Cleveland. He's also still not old by any stretch, as he's only 29. I could see him hitting .300 in this division, while stealing close to 30 bases. He has enough power to hit between 10 and 15 home runs as well.

o. Finally, Greinke had his breakout season last year, but that doesn't mean he's done taking steps forward. There is a lot of room for upward mobility in fantasy with this kid. He was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball before a personal meltdown in 2006. Since then, he's battled his way back and last year became a really good major league pitcher. He won 13 games with a 3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 183 strikeouts in 202 1/3 innings. The thing is, his stuff -- and performance in the minors pre-meltdown -- show the potential to be much better than this. I'm talking sub-3.00 ERA, a WHIP around 1.00, and 200 Ks. Remember, he's only two years removed from virtually taking a whole season off, and he's only 25 years-old.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Royals originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 11 Mar 2009 17:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The White Sox

Knox Bardeen — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 00:29:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the ...
Team who loves to mash the ball. The 2008 White Sox led Major League Baseball in home runs with 235. Even though the team lost Nick Swisher, there are still six hitters in this lineup with 25-plus home run potential; three that could easily amass 30-plus. The infield is all shook up headed into the new season. Only Paul Konerko is back in his position from 2008 at first base. Josh Fields will be given the reigns at third base to see if he can finally live up to his potential. Alexei Ramirez will be shifting from second base to shortstop to fill the spot vacated by Orlando Cabrera. The pitching staff lost Javier Vazquez to Atlanta but still has three credible front-line starters. Gavin Floyd and John Danks exploded onto the scene in '08 and Mark Buehrle is as consistent as they come. The White Sox won their division in 2008 and still have the talent to compete again in 2009.

The Breakout
Josh Fields was taken by the White Sox in the first round of the 2004 draft. Since then, the expectations for Fields have been extremely high, dwarfed only by the expectations set for White Sox fan and newly elected President Obama. This season could finally be the year that Fields breaks out. He spent the winter at Camp Cora and the bench coach says that we're to expect to be "shocked" by the new look Josh Fields. We've seen his power potential in the minor leagues and at the Major League level in 2007 where he hit 23 home runs in 373 at-bats. He didn't get a chance to follow up in 2008 as injuries kept him off of the field. If you give Fields 500 at-bats you can just might get 30 home runs from him in 2009.

The Bust
Bobby Jenks burst onto the scene in 2005 to help the White Sox win the World Series. At that point he was a pure power pitcher with a scorching fastball sporting an 11.44 K/9 ratio. Since then his fastball has lost a little bit of zip and instead of missing bats, he's pitching to contact. Since 2005 his K/9 ratio has fallen each year. In 2008 he finished with a paltry 5.55 K/9 ratio. His current ADP sits at 99.21, which is a 9th round selection in fantasy drafts. If his strikeout rate continues to diminish in 2009 there's a good chance he'll start getting touched up a bit. Without that blazing fastball, Jenks is just another normal closer, albeit on a good team. His current ADP is too high and there is risk here of Jenks falling flat on his face in 2009.

The Lineup
1. Jerry Owens / DeWayne Wise , CF
2. A.J. Pierzynski, C
3. Carlos Quentin, LF
4. Jim Thome, DH
5. Jermaine Dye, RF
6. Paul Konerko, 1B
7. Alexei Ramirez, SS
8. Josh Fields / Dayan Viciedo , 3B
9. Chris Getz / Jayson Nix , 2B

The Rotation
1. Mark Buehrle
2. Gavin Floyd
3. John Danks
4. Bartolo Colon / Clayton Richard
5. Aaron Poreda / Jeff Marquez

The Bullpen
CL - Bobby Jenks
SU - Octavio Dotel
SU - Matt Thornton

The Skinny
o. Carlos Quentin was in the hunt for an MVP award last season before a broken arm wrist ended his season. He had 36 home runs in only 480 at-bats so you can imagine what that power line would have looked like had he played the last month of the season. One bit of caution though, a broken wrist like this can have a tendency of sapping power until it is completely healed. If Quentin's arm needs a few weeks in the beginning of the season to get the strength back, it will be just like missing the final month in 2008. Quentin is going to get his home runs, just don't expect him to surpass his 2008 total this season.

o. More important that spring ERA for a pitcher is domination on the mound shown by strikeout to walk ratio and K/9 ratio. John Danks has nine strikeouts to only one walk in seven innings of spring work thus far. Those are good signs for a bright 2009.

o. The first three pitchers in the rotation are locked in. And even though there seems to be depth at the back end of the rotation, some of these candidates for the final two spots have their demons. Aaron Poreda can bring the heat, but is without a second Major League pitch. Bartolo Colon is... well, he's Bartolo Colon. Don't be surprised to see the White Sox, once again, give Jose Contreras a rotation spot and hand the fifth spot to either Clayton Richard or Jeff Marquez.

o. Don't be surprised when you see 2008 first round draft pick, Gordon Beckham wearing a Sox uniform in the south side this season. Kid was an All-American at the University of Georgia showing power, plate skills and nice glove work and those trends are continuing at the professional level. A month ago, Beckham was thought to be ready to make an appearance as a late season call-up in 2009, but he's been starting at second base some this spring and creating a tough decision for Ozzie Guillen about what to do with him.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The White Sox originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Tue, 10 Mar 2009 00:29:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit : Passed Out in The Offseason - Pitchers Edition

Knox Bardeen — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 21:22:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

'Passed Out ...' is FanHouse's way of not saying that stupid, sexy "s" word that everyone gets so caught up on. Regardless of what they're called, though, you still want to draft and/or own these players.

The term sleeper is apparently a very bad work around these parts. I think the word just has too many definitions. One mans Scott Baker is another mans Scott Kazmir. Until the industry has figured out the proper usage of the term "sleeper", we're just not going to use it. That doesn't mean that I can't share with you a few pitchers that I feel should exceed expectations in 2009. You'll find guys here who should outperform there draft position or auction dollar value. Basically... you're going to get a good deal on these pitchers if you draft them properly.

Aaron Harang, Reds - You should cringe every time you think of Dusty Baker managing one of your fantasy pitchers. Many feel it was his decision to use Harang in an extra innings game last season that caused his meltdown. And when I say meltdown... dude lost 17 games in 2008 and ballooned his ERA up to 4.78 from 3.73 a year earlier. Harang isn't the pitcher you saw in 2008. His strikeout rate was down, his walk rate was up and nothing seemed to click after that fateful relief appearance. He's being taken in mock drafts this year in the 14th round. If he can put 2008 behind him, get his strikeouts back up and regain his control, there is no reason why Harang can't win 12-15 games, strike out 185 and earn a sub-4.00 ERA. That's great value in the 14th round.

Josh Johnson, Marlins - Reconstructive elbow surgery stole most of 2007 and 2008 away from Johnson. Before that, in 2006, Johnson showed everyone that the young hurler was going to be something special. And it's my belief that he still will be. Proof is in the pudding and the final 14 starts of 2008, after returning from the DL, were a delicious flavor of top notch pudding. He went 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA in those final starts of last season and even threw a complete game. There is a good chance that Johnson will pitch Opening Day for the Marlins. There's also a chance that now that he's fully recovered from elbow surgery, Johnson could strikeout more than a batter an inning, post an ERA below 4.00 and win 15 games. That'd be a steal if you drafted him in the 13th round, which corresponds with his current ADP of 147.25.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies - Jimenez won 12 games last season, struck out 172 and posted an ERA of 3.99. All those are signs of a successful year for a starting pitcher. So, why is he on this ~~sleeper~~ undervalued list? The biggest reason is that fact that his current ADP is 290.24. That means he's being taken in mock drafts in the 24th round. Two other reasons are his rising strikeout rate and his falling home run rate. Jimenez has always been a strikeout machine. But, he's still getting better. He's got the juice and zip to reach the 200 strikeout mark. He also cut his HR/9 ratio in more than half last season from a 1.10 in 2007 to 0.50 in 2008. That means he's learning to keep the ball in the yard. If he can finally control his walk rate (an issue in the past, think Wild Thing pitching blind folded) Jimenez could take a few steps towards top-20 pitcher. It's not going to hurt that he gets to pitch on the road in the National League West. Outside of Colorado the ballparks favor pitchers in a big way.

Oliver Perez, Mets - Perez just resigned with the Mets and is slated to be their third starter in the rotation. You're not ever going to get top of the rotation stuff from Perez, but you really don't need to. His ADP is 292.45 which places him in the 25th round of fantasy drafts. You're, most likely, going to get ten to twelve wins from Perez, and ERA between 3.90 and 4.30 and a boat load of strikeouts. It's his strikeout potential alone that makes Perez an outstanding selection in the 25th round. He had 180 strikeouts last year and it's easy to imagine him fanning more in '09. The fact that he pitches for one of the better teams in the league is just icing on the cake; his double digit win total should be easy to come by.

Anthony Reyes, Indians - Reyes turned into the prospect that everyone thought he'd be in September of last season. He was 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in six starts before elbow issues caused him to shelve to rest of the season. The upside is there and 2009 could just be the year Reyes puts it all together. He's now pitching with Cleveland, so the change in scenery could help. He also spent the off-season with pitching coach and psychologist Tom House who fixed a minor mechanical problem and moved him towards the middle of the mound; both changes to help with injury prevention. With a new mindset and physical tools, combined with a move to a moderate ground ball pitcher from an extreme flyball pitcher, Reyes could see success like scouts predicted long ago. That would be great for all of you who draft him late. His current ADP is 330.45, well outside the 25-26 rounds of most fantasy drafts.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit : Passed Out in The Offseason - Pitchers Edition originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 09 Mar 2009 21:22:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Orioles

Matt Snyder — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the ...
Team who just can't buy a break. They can't get any big names to sign with them (Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett), they are getting majorly outspent by the two big boys in the division, and the Rays skyrocketed past them last season due to an impressive franchise turnaround. I've seen people tout these guys as the "2009 version of the Rays." My reply? You have got to be kidding me. There's not near enough here for a run at .500, much less the World Series.

The Breakout
Adam Jones has all the tools to be a superstar in this league. He's fast, a smooth defender, has power, and has the potential to hit for a high batting average. His last full year in the minors, for example, he hit .314 with 25 home runs, 84 RBI, 75 runs, and eight stolen bases. This was in 101 games.

Jones has accumulated 645 major league plate appearances, including close to a full slate last season. He's turning 24 this season. He's nearing the time when his skills will start to take over. Granted, he's likely not in line for a full-scale blow up, but he's going to take significant steps forward this season.

The main thing holding him back last year was consistency. He had an .804 OPS in June, but only .585 in May. He was decent to good in July, but atrocious in September. Now that he's had a year to adjust to the grind and familiarize himself with the majors, things will start to get a bit more consistent. Plus, he was seeing most pitchers for the first time last season. That is a huge advantage for the pitcher. Now, he's gotten some experience and knows what to expect.

The Bust
I'm really having a hard time figuring out what's going on with Ty Wigginton. I understand he hit 23 bombs in only 386 at-bats last season, but he doesn't figure to get everyday playing time this time around, either. The O's have young outfielders they wish to develop, and he's not going to pose a significant enough upgrade over Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, or Luke Scott to find his way into the lineup at 1B, 3B, or DH often enough to warrant where he's being taken.

On MDC's ADP list, he's being picked one overall spot behind Adrian Beltre. He's being picked in front of Mark Reynolds (more than 50 picks, in fact). Am I missing something? He's a career .270 part-time player who doesn't run. He hits home runs. Ok, so do a lot of guys. In fact, many hit more than 24 a season (his career high). At 31 this year, he gets to face pretty solid divisional starting pitching from the Red Sox, Yanks, and Rays -- not to mention Roy Halladay of the Jays. Again, I'm lost as to his relatively lofty draft position.

The Lineup
1. Brian Roberts, 2B
2. Adam Jones, CF
3. Nick Markakis, RF
4. Aubrey Huff, 1B
5. Melvin Mora, 3B
6. Luke Scott, DH
7. Gregg Zaun, C
8. Cesar Izturis, SS
9. Felix Pie, LF

Wigginton and Ryan Freel will find their way onto the field for significant playing time, as well. Oh, and I don't know if you've heard of this kid named Matt Wieters. He's a catcher, and he's supposed to be pretty good. My bet is that he starts the season in triple-A, but gets the call by mid-May. When that happens, he fits right into Zaun's lineup spot and completely takes the job over.

The Rotation
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Koji Uehara
3. Rich Hill
4. Mark Hendrickson
5. Radhames Liz

The Bullpen
CL - George Sherrill / Chris Ray
SU - no one who is fantasy relevant

The Skinny
o. There are more stay-away guys here than ones you definitely want to own.

o. Huff's a weird case. He was a stud for two years (when he was 26 and 27), average for three, and then all of a sudden became a stud again in 2008 as a 31 year-old. Can you count on another 30 home run, 100 RBI season? Absolutely not. Is it possible you'll see one? Absolutely. Good luck!

o. Let me tell you a little something about Rich Hill. I know some stat-heads who don't actually watch games love this guy. They have for years because he rang up big strikeout totals in the minors. As someone who has seen, and been frustrated by, him throughout his big league career, I am begging you to pass on him. He's getting run as a sleeper in AL-only leagues from some other sites, and I'm telling you that this is a mistake. He sucks.

o. First of all, you can't be a 29-year-old prospect. You just can't, so he's not a prospect. Secondly, people like to bring up his magical 2007 season, but it wasn't that great. He went for 11 wins, a 3.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 183 strikeouts in 195 innings. That's a good year, but I'm seeing people talk about it like he was an elite option. He was serviceable. You know who he faced that year? Competition from the NL Central, where the Cubs took the division with 85 wins. Actually, he went 7-7 with a 4.52 ERA in his last 26 starts, so a hot start was what propelled him to being better than average. Now he's getting to face the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox regularly? Can you even defend him as a "breakout" pick with a straight face? He's mentally weak, and he's going to kill your fantasy team if you put any faith in him whatsoever. Avoid at all costs. I'll be back at the end of the year to gloat when he falls flat on his face.

o. Don't fall for Pie either. He's a poor-man's Corey Patterson. At least Patterson actually displayed power and a decent stolen base percentage. Pie's only hit 62 home runs in more than 2,500 minor league at-bats. He's only been successful on 63 percent of his minor league stolen base attempts. How that translates to a productive major league fantasy player is beyond me. He's not worth a roster spot in any league. Any league.

o. It's going to be Ray taking the ball in the ninth over Sherrill sooner rather than later this season. Sherrill was a nice story last season, but Ray is younger, has better stuff, and doesn't let near as many guys on base.

o. Look, I'm excited to see Wieters make it to the bigs this season, too, but he's getting far too much run. I actually took part in this hype over a month ago, but since then it's gotten excessive. He's not going to just enter the league and become Mike Piazza. There will be a growing process. Take it easy on him and let him fall into the teens of catchers in your draft.

o. Finally, did you know Markakis is only 25? He's already logged three full seasons. His rate stats (batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage) have all risen progressively each of those three seasons. His walks have grown from 43 to 99 in just two years. He's growing into a complete hitter. Now that there is better lineup protection around him, he'll start getting better pitches to hit. Though he likely doesn't have enough power to ever hit more than 30 home runs, he can get you close. He's a category filler as well. It's very reasonable to expect .320 with 27 homers, 100 RBI, 100 runs, and 15 steals this year due to natural progression.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Orioles originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 09 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Fallout: A-Rod's Surgery

Matt Snyder — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 13:15:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Injury Report, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

So here we are again. We just can't escape the Alex Rodriguez talk. Now he's having surgery, but it's not the full-blown miss-most-of-the-season surgery. He's having a "quick fix" type deal before getting everything fixed after the season.

Josh Alper already covered it for MLB 'House, and it looks like A-Rod will be missing about two months of major league action. So, four months of A-Rod compared to about six months of every other third baseman in baseball -- this plummets his fantasy stock.

If you expect A-Rod to put up "normal" numbers by his standards, you just need to figure that he'll be reaching two-thirds of his counting stats this season. Having a partially repaired hip won't help his stolen base numbers, either. Let's set the projections at: a .300 average, 27 home runs, 85 RBI, and 75 runs. I think we have to just expect zero steals and assume any swipes this season are gravy. So, looking at the above numbers, where to slot him?

o. Well, obviously David Wright is head-and-shoulders above those numbers. So much so, that I'd again say he's got to be the No. 1 pick -- narrowly edging out Hanley Ramirez.

o. Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, and Chipper Jones should be taken above A-Rod, but with Jones we're getting close. He hasn't played more than 137 games since 2003. The difference, though, is we already know A-Rod is missing two months. It's possible Chipper goes the whole season healthy.

o. I'm expecting similar numbers from Garrett Atkins to what I posted above as A-Rod's projections. A-Rod has a ton more upside, but Atkins is healthy. We'll slot A-Rod just a nose ahead of Atkins, but I won't blame those who would rather have Atkins. After all, my projected numbers above are assuming he doesn't miss any additional time, once he gets back on the field, and that he'll still have that great power.

o. Finally, this is assuming you have a format where the stats accumulate. If you play in a weekly head-to-head format, you've got to have someone playing third base for you for the first two months of the season. There are options (as I outlined in the last two paragraphs here) if you want to draft A-Rod and sit on him. I certainly wouldn't blame anyone for avoiding him altogether, though.

Fantasy Fallout: A-Rod's Surgery originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Sun, 08 Mar 2009 13:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy Baseball Preview: Blue Jays

Matt Snyder — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 12:45:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the ...
Team about to lose one of the best pitchers in baseball. Let's face it, with the economy in the tank for the rest of this calendar year, major league teams will be forced to cut costs. Roy Halladay makes a lot of money. The Blue Jays are going to be the worst team in the AL East (yes, they really will). People will stop attending games, and the Jays are going to have to deal him for about 30 cents on the dollar.

The Breakout
Everyone is flocking to Travis Snider, but I'm gonna let them do so. As I've outlined briefly in my version of New Studs on the Block, so many fantasy owners tend to look so forward to the next thing that they'll give up on one of the past "next big thing" guys far too early.

Adam Lind used to be a "next big thing," but now he's just window dressing to most. My question is why? He's only 25. He made strides last year toward becoming a quality major league hitter, and some solid power is present. He won't be competing for at-bats this season, so we should see the batting average (he's a .318 career minor league hitter) and power grow close to their full potential with Lind. We're talking about .300 with 20 homers and 80 RBI.

The Bust
The last time Vernon Wells paid dividends for fantasy owners was in 2006. Hell, he's already been injured this spring. Yet people still keep seeing that name and thinking they are about to find fantasy gold. He's already had injury issues this spring, and he doesn't really run much anymore. Frankly, I don't see his line as being a ton better than the one I projected for Lind. You think you can get them at about the same time in the draft? Good luck.

The Lineup
1. Marco Scutaro, SS
2. Aaron Hill, 2B
3. Alex Rios, RF
4. Vernon Wells, CF
5. Adam Lind, DH
6. Scott Rolen, 3B
7. Lyle Overbay, 1B
8. Travis Snider, LF
9. Rod Barajas, C

The Rotation
1. Roy Halladay
2. Jesse Litsch
3. David Purcey
4. Casey Janssen
5. Scott Richmond

Mike Maroth could figure into the mix as well. The timing for the long-term injuries to promising young hurlers Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum couldn't have come at a worse time. This rotation is in disarray without them -- especially if Halladay gets dealt midseason.

The Bullpen
CL - B.J. Ryan
SU - Scott Downs
SU - Jeremy Accardo
SU - Jesse Carlson

The Skinny
o. There's a lot less to like in Canada than there used to be. The lineup only has three or four hitters worth owning in most mixed leagues, and Halladay and Ryan are the only pitchers who should be owned everywhere.

o. Litsch is a promising youngster, much like McGowan and Marcum, but he's actually healthy. The only problem is you aren't gonna get strikeouts from him. He's never punched out a large amount, and last year he only sent 99 hitters back to the dugout in 176 innings. He should end up being a really helpful pitcher in terms of ERA and WHIP, but don't overpay -- we don't like non-strikeout pitchers.

o. The preseason love for 21 year-old Snider (seriously, what a terrible way to spell this awesome last name) is plentiful. He shined nicely in his Septemeber call-up last season, after climbing all the way from high-A ball. All told, he hit 25 home runs on four different levels (including two in the bigs) in 2008. He should get the opportunity to grow into a quality major league hitter, but I'm expecting some growing pains. I mean, he only hit .262 in double-A. Don't take him before Lind.

o. When the season begins, Rolen will only be 34 years-old. I say only, because it seems like he's 40, doesn't it? If he's totally healthy, we know he still has the ability to hit close to .300 with more than 25 bombs. Of course, we haven't seen that since 2004, which means he's a later-round gamble.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: Blue Jays originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Sun, 08 Mar 2009 12:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Fantasy FanHouse Roundtable: Who Is The No. 1 Overall Pick?

Matt Snyder — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:30:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy Baseball, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Thursday was a see-saw type day for fantasy baseball analysts. We were left scrambling to rework our cheat sheets in the wake of the news Alex Rodriguez would miss at least a month of the regular season. Once we got done with said scrambling, we heard that he's actually going to rehab and play through a torn labrum in his hip.

After all was said and done -- including the revelation to non-medical people that the labrum is in both the hip and the shoulder -- the No. 1 overall pick discussion can be revisited. Hanley Ramirez, Albert Pujols and David Wright should certainly be involved, but it's possible to consider Jose Reyes as well.

So ... who do we have?

(click here to learn more about the FanHouse team members)

Will Brinson: I'm taking Hanley (although it's nice to see those of us who were in the Wright over A-Rod camp are now fully justified, whether you think we deserved it or not). I think Pujols might actually have another monster MVP year this season, but he's a first baseman, and with the positional scarcity coupled with Hanley's speed/power combo and youth, I just don't think you can pass on him.

Tom Herrera: I think it's got to be Hanley, too. A couple of us were already putting Ramirez at No. 1 overall over A-Rod, and now this injury clears the way for the rare power-speed shortstop to be the undisputed pick. In fact, if the early reports that Rodriguez will be out at least 10 weeks are correct, then I'm dropping him way down the rankings [Ed. note: we started this roundtable when A-Rod was thought to be out for a while]. While it's surgery on his hip rather than his knee/wrist/other key body part, I just don't take chances with a pick that high. My top-five order now becomes Ramirez-Pujols-Wright-Reyes-Sizemore, with CystRod on the outside (see, I already coined the New York Post's new nickname).

Brinson: Wouldn't that actually be "CystARoid"?

(we all just ignored that)

Knox Bardeen: I want to see Albert Pujols finish one more season with no elbow problems before I choose him first overall. His numbers merit that selection, but until he's 100 percent healthy, the injury risk keeps me from drafting him with the number one overall pick. That leaves the competition between Hanley Ramirez and David Wright.

I'm going to have to go with Wright. I think they'll both have similar batting averages, with Wright having the slight advantage. I think they'll both have similar home run totals, once again with Wright having the slight advantage. With the switch to batting third in the lineup, Ramirez loses some runs scored, giving the advantage to Wright. Ramirez will gain some RBI, but it won't be enough to catch up with Wright's RBI production. So, the only category Ramirez outshines Wright in is stolen bases. If Wright wins four of the five rotisserie categories, why shouldn't he be the first pick?

Matt Snyder: In order to cover all bases, I'd like to state that I would take Wright first overall if we were certain A-Rod would miss at least a month. There would be such a huge separation at third base between Wright and the next best player -- Evan Longoria, A-Rod, or Aramis Ramirez -- that you'd have to. Pujols has Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera to provide at least a bit of competition. Hanley has Reyes. Wright, however, would be on a plateau of his own, while putting up great numbers in all five categories.

As things stand, though, it appears A-Rod is going to be around, just hampered a bit. Personally, I'd rather have Hanley Ramirez. His RBI production should drastically increase while moving to the No. 3 hole this season, and his power numbers make him a much better pick than Reyes and Jimmy Rollins. Outside of those three, shortstop isn't exactly a burgeoning fantasy position.

Fantasy FanHouse Roundtable: Who Is The No. 1 Overall Pick? originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments