Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse

Hideki Matsui, Others From World Series to be Overrated in 2010 Fantasy Baseball

Matt Snyder — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 08:55:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Value Machine, Draft Advice

World Series MVP Hideki Matsui was an absolute monster (Godzilla?) in the 2009 Fall Classic. In 13 at-bats, he pounded eight hits -- including a double and three home runs -- eight RBI and three runs scored. His OPS for the series was an obscene 2.027.

As he was accepting the MVP trophy, there were many items swirling around in my head (there always are, it's a burden, I tell ya!). He's a free agent, the Yankees likely can't justify bringing back both him and Johnny Damon if they want to shore up their starting pitching, etc. There were several more ... and then I arrived at this one: man, he's really gonna be overrated in fantasy baseball drafts next season.

You see, most fantasy baseball fans -- the ones who aren't losers -- are real baseball fans first. This means they watch the World Series and it obviously has a subconscious effect on them. Year after year, players are overvalued in fantasy drafts following a big postseason (think Josh Beckett in '04, Cole Hamels this past season, Adam Wainwright in '07, Jacoby Ellsbury in '08, etc.). Sure, these are all good players, but they were being drafted far above their ceilings because we were excited about their small sample of good work in the World Series. Several times it's a young player who is just not ready to enter stud-hood yet (see the four I listed above and realize regular season breakouts came a year or two later) and sometimes it's an older player who has seen better days (see Matsui).
Just remember, you can't carry over the 2009 postseason into 2010 regular season fantasy stats.

Here are some players bound to be overrated heading into 2010 fantasy drafts, based upon their World Series performance.

Hideki Matsui - You saw his numbers above, but here are a few more. He's a 35-year-old who can't really play adequate defense anymore. He's a free agent who made $13 million this past year. He's hit more than 30 home runs just once (2004) and he hasn't driven home 100 since 2007. He hit .274 in the 2009 regular season. Just remember, he's not a big-time run producer in fantasy. You can find outfielders like him quite easily in the middle rounds. Plus, he could have a change of scenery with heightened expectations (which would also bring a lesser supporting cast).

Johnny Damon - Similar situation to Matsui. Damon's getting up there in age (today is his 36th birthday) and he's a free agent. An early season power surge skewed his regular season line and his World Series stat-line (.364-.440-.455) will surely make him near and dear the hearts of many fantasy owners. Just don't overdo it.

Derek Jeter - He's usually overrated on name recognition alone, but this past season he ended up having a rejuvenation. Still, he's not a great source of power or speed (anymore). He'll hit for high average and score runs. If you are looking for much more, you'll be disappointed.

Carlos Ruiz - He's an average offensive catcher. That's not going to all of a sudden change at age 31 just because he had an OPS of over 1.200 in the NLCS and World Series. Do not enter 2010 with him as your fantasy catcher.

Raul Ibanez - He's gonna be overrated based upon his first half of the regular season, but closing with a .942 OPS in the World Series will only compound matters.

Cliff Lee - I don't know if you heard, but Lee was pretty good this postseason (understatement alert!). With all the superlatives being hurled around by everyone from Joe Buck to the most casual of fans, I'm honestly thinking he'll be the first pitcher taken in some fantasy drafts. Man, would that be a big mistake. He was inconsistent for all of 2009, ending 14-13 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. For those talking about him being different for the Phillies, consider his ERA was actually worse for the Phils than it was for the Indians. I like him as a fantasy pitcher for next season, but not in the top 10 -- and that's where he'll be drafted in almost every single league.

Hideki Matsui, Others From World Series to be Overrated in 2010 Fantasy Baseball originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Thu, 05 Nov 2009 08:55:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fanhouse Fantasy Draft: Extra Base Knox

Knox Bardeen — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 23:26:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice

We just concluded our fantasy draft here at Fanhouse. I have to say that I like what I did here.

It's a 12-team, rotisserie mixed-league using standard 5X5 scoring categories and rosters that include two catchers, a first baseman, a second baseman, a shortstop, a third baseman, a corner infielder, a middle infielder, five outfielders, a utility hitter, nine pitchers and three bench players.

Here's the Extra Base Knox team:

Round 1(3) - Albert Pujols, Cardinals - Wright and Hanley Ramirez went with the first two picks. Pujols is the best remaining player so I went with him. I'll take his massive offense in four of the five categories and smile all the way.

Round 2(22) - Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners - I made a tough decision here between him and Justin Morneau. I love Ichiro's speed and great batting average. With such high batting averages from my first two picks, I should be able to grab a big home run hitter with a low average later in the draft if I choose.

Round 3(27) - Carl Crawford, Rays - I didn't go power, I went speed again. Crawford plus Ichiro will pretty much guarantee my team is near the top in stolen bases.

Round 4(46) - Adrian Gonzalez, Padres - Here's some of the power that I need. Gonzalez probably won't duplicate his 2008 numbers, but he's good for 30 home runs and 100 RBI.

Round 5(51) - Shane Victorino, Phillies - The early starting pitcher run happened without me. So, I went with another speed guy. I'll take his 35-40 stolen bases and hope he can continue his home run growth.

Round 6(70) - Chris Davis, Rangers - I upset a few guys with this pick as they were hoping Davis would fall into the seventh round. His 35-plus home run potential and triple digit RBI hopes weren't getting by me in the sixth.

Round 7(75) - Chone Figgins, Angels - Power... Speed... Power... Speed... Starting to see a trend here?

Round 8(94) - Jose Valverde, Astros - This is the first pick that I wasn't totally in love with. I'm a big fan of the strategy of grabbing an elite closer and then not buying saves any more. Brad Lidge (who I really wanted) went two picks before me and Papelbon was gone, so I grabbed the next best thing.

Round 9(99) - Scott Kazmir, Rays - The psuedo-aces were falling fast as this draft was very heavy in starting pitchers going early. I usually wouldn't take Kazmir (even though he's a good ADP value here) as I'm not sure about his ability to maintain health. But, there was a huge drop-off after him, so I pulled the trigger.

Round 10(118) - Andre Ethier, Dodgers - I was ecstatic that Ethier fell to me. He had a second-half breakout last season that leaves me drooling for more in 2009. I'm hoping for 25-plus home runs and another .300 batting average.

Round 11(123) - Brian Fuentes, Angels - OK, I'm off script here. Two closers in the first eleven rounds? This just isn't me. That being said, Fuentes is going to rock in his new digs. He could approach 40 saves.

Round 12(142) - Brad Hawpe, Rockies - Hawpe is another outfielder who had a great second half last season. If he can build on his split from 2008, Hawpe could come close to hitting 30 home runs and batting .300.

Round 13(147) - Josh Johnson, Marlins - Johnson is back from Tommy John surgery and is ready to show off his ace-like skills. His 8-1 record in the second half last year with a 3.36 ERA is just a sampling of what you'll see all year in Florida.

Round 14(166) - Derek Lowe, Braves - This ground ball master is having a freakishly good spring. I'm expecting a great ERA and anywhere from 13 to 15 wins from Lowe in 2009.

Round 15(171) - Jose Lopez, Mariners - Here's another guy that I was thrilled to find still available in the 15th round. Lopez could hit 20-plus home runs this season and rise above the .300 mark in batting average. That would be a great value in this round.

Round 16(190) - Khalil Greene, Cardinals - I'm dying for a shortstop and Greene is just tearing it up this spring. I'm hoping that his .418 batting average with 17 RBI in 67 spring at-bats will translate into a much needed rebound year for the Cardinals.

Round 17(195) - Jeremy Hermida, Marlins - Every season I buy into the "Hermida is a sleeper" sermon. Heck, half of the time I'm the one preaching it. He's hitting .317 with four home runs this spring and I'm doing something here that I said I wouldn't; buying in to Hermida again.

Round 18(214) - Kevin Gregg, Cubs - He's been named the Cubs closer and should get a bunch of opportunities to rack up saves with such a good team. This seemed like a good value here. I should do very well in saves this season.

Round 19(219) - Dioner Navarro, Rays - I missed out on the elite catcher run. The middle tier catchers all went earlier than I had hoped as well. When Ramon Hernandez went before me I figured that I needed to get going on filling the first of my two catcher spots. Navarro is young enough to continue growing as a hitter. But, I am not expecting such a high batting average this season.

Round 20(238) - Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees - Wang won't help me in strikeouts at all. But, if he's really healthy, pitching for that stacked lineup should get hims a nice win total.

Round 21(243) - Jonathan Sanchez, Giants - The Giants are improved and Sanchez has a pretty rockin' strikeout to walk ratio this spring (15:2 K:BB). I'm going to hope for double digit wins and more strikeouts in 2009 than he posted in 2008.

Round 22(262) - Chris Volstad, Marlins - When I was watching Grapefruit League action, I made the statement that Volstad put on the best pitching performance I personally witnessed. He didn't overpower hitters. He just made them look really, really bad. I'm hoping he'll continue this trend and post double digit wins for me in 2009.

Round 23(267) - Miguel Olivo, Royals - Pickin's were getting really slim at this point for the catcher position. I decided to go with a guy who's "killing it" this spring. He's batting .333 with four home runs thus far and if he continues to hit like that, I'll be a happy camper.

Round 24(286) - Manny Burris, Giants - Burris won the starting second base job today and should be a cheap source of stolen bases. He's a great value in the 24th round and could steal 25-plus bases.

Round 25(291) - Kendry Morales, Angels - I'm filling out my bench here. I wanted to fill it out with prospects who were performing well in spring. Morales is batting .405 with ten doubles and three home runs this spring. He has outfield eligibility right now but will be playing first base for the Angels. Extra position eligibility is a bonus for me.

Round 26(310) - Brett Gardner, Yankees - Here's another kid who's on fire this spring. He'll be batting ninth for the Yankees as their new center fielder. Let's hope he continues hitting well with a little pop and, most importantly, steals some bases.

So, let me have it! I'd love to hear if you think I stand a chance...

Fanhouse Fantasy Draft: Extra Base Knox originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Tue, 31 Mar 2009 23:26:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Gary Sheffield Cut: Fantasy Impact

Matt Snyder — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 13:45:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice

Gary Sheffield has been cut from the Detroit Tigers. You, as a fantasy baseball fanatic, have likely already heard the news. You also probably don't own Sheff, which is a good thing. At his age, lack of positional flexibility, and deteriorated skill set, Sheff wasn't worth owning in fantasy baseball this year. Now that point is hammered even further home. He'll probably catch on somewhere else as a DH, but I can't see him worth a roster spot this season.

The real spin here is what the Tigers will do with their lineup, now, and how that impacts others. Here is a partial list of who this will affect.

Marcus Thames - Thames is the one who saw a significant boost in his fantasy value with the release Sheffield. Thames has significant power potential. In the past three seasons, he's hit 69 home runs in 933 at-bats. Prorate that to a full season's worth of at-bats, and he's hitting 44 bombs. Obviously, we aren't counting on that happening, for there's a reason he hasn't been given a full load of at-bats through his 32nd birthday.

He can also get hot. And I mean scorching. There was a 35 game stretch last season where Thames hit 15 home runs, drove in 32, and put together a 1.117 OPS. He hit 10 jacks in only 72 at-bats in June. This means he's definitely worth owning in larger leagues with a bench. Ride him while he's hot, and bench him when in the bad stretches -- because he can also be really bad. In August, he had 48 plate appearances, which resulted in 17 strikeouts, 0 walks, and only 9 hits.

Josh Anderson - You want some cheap speed? The 26 year-old prospect will now be playing for his third team in three years, but he can sure run. In six minor league seasons, Anderson averaged 47 steals with an impressive 80 percent success rate. He was also 10-11 last season in the bigs. He could spell the starters at any of the three outfield positions or pinch run. It all depends on playing time, but Anderson can realistically steal 20 bases -- and you'll be able to get him really, really late (AL-Only leagues for now).

Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera - With the Sheffield-at-DH albatross out of the way, the Tigers can afford to keep these two studs more well rested by using them as the designated hitter every once in a while. Whether Thames occasionally spells Magglio in the outfield or Jeff Larish fills in at 1B, these guys will have more opportunity to swing the bat without playing defense. This doesn't necessarily provide a boost in value for the two, but it should give you a bit more confidence in their health for the long haul this season.

Jeff Larish - The 26 year-old should see a slight uptick in at-bats now with Sheffield out of the way. He can be used as a DH, or fill-in at one of the corner positions. He's a cheap source of power in the deepest of AL-Only leagues, having hit 67 home runs in his past three minor league seasons.

Gary Sheffield Cut: Fantasy Impact originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Tue, 31 Mar 2009 13:45:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Marlins Leading Off With Bonifacio?

Knox Bardeen — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 23:38:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Waiver Wire, Draft Advice

It would take some kind of player to supplant the leagues most valuable fantasy hitter, Hanley Ramirez, from his lead off role in Florida. A role in which he racked up 30/30 season and scored 125 runs.

Since camp opened, the Marlins have had that player, Cameron Maybin, penciled into the lead off role; moving Ramirez to the third spot in the lineup. Maybin is lightning fast and hitting at a .315 clip this spring with two doubles, a triple and a home run with two stolen bases.

But, with a week left in Spring Training, Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez thinks Emilio Bonifacio might lead off.

Emilio Bonifacio may end up winning the third base job. If that happens, manager Fredi Gonzalez said Bonifacio could lead off and Maybin could hit either second or in the lower third of the order. "I think if he's on the team, I think that's a pretty good spot for him,'' Gonzalez said after the Marlins' 5-4 loss to the Mets.

Bonifacio isn't hitting for as high of an average as Maybin is this spring (Bonifacio is hitting .278), but he has many more extra base hits as he's tallied four doubles and three triples to go along with his three stolen bases.

At this point, late in the fantasy draft season, Bonifacio isn't even being drafted in mixed leagues. Maybin has an Average Draft Position in the 24th round at 276.50. If Bonifacio does win the third base job and leads off, he can be considered in the late rounds of deep mixed league drafts. If you've already drafted, he's surely waiver wire material.

Maybin, on the other hand, if he gets moved to where he's batting second should retain his current fantasy value. If he gets moved to the lower portion of the batting order, his fantasy value drops a bit.

This situation may not get solved in the next week, or maybe in the next few weeks. Keep an eye on it. If both Bonifacio and Maybin are in the top third they are solids fantasy players. If one drops to the bottom, he's not going to help your fantasy squad as much as someone else you could probably find on the waiver wire.

Marlins Leading Off With Bonifacio? originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Sat, 28 Mar 2009 23:38:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Who Benefits If Derek Jeter Hits Leadoff?

Knox Bardeen — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 14:30:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice

Yesterday on Fanhouse, Ed Price wrote about the Yankees flip-flopping Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter in the batting order. He mentioned a very compelling reason why this might not be the best move. And another reason why it might be needed.

Statistically speaking, there doesn't seem to be a good reason to drop Damon. He's faster than Jeter (who stole 11 bases in 2008, 18 fewer than Damon) and gets on base more often (.375 to .363).

But according to Baseball Prospectus, Jeter came up 188 times last year with a runner on first and drove in that runner five times -- the 11th worst percentage in the AL.

This switch seems to be a large price to pay for the Yankees to keep Derek Jeter from grounding into double plays.

By switching Jeter and Damon, Girardi can take advantage of what both guys do well and can actually bail Jeter out of hitting into so many double plays - a problem that plagued him (45 times in the last two years, fourth-most in the majors). Jeter has a good on-base percentage and the lefty-swinging Damon, who pulls the ball, could move him over by hitting one through the hole.

More import than making the Yankees a more potent lineup, which this move might do, what does this move do to your fantasy roster if you own Jeter or Johnny Damon?

From a fantasy standpoint, moving Jeter to the the lead-off role hurts three players in the Yankees lineup, while helping none.

1. As Jeter moves up, he's going to have less opportunities to drive in runs (namely Damon). He's also not nearly the base-runner Damon is, so don't expect his stolen base totals to look like Damon's from last season. He will score more, but once again, he doesn't get on base as much as Damon and doesn't run as well, so don't expect triple digit run totals from Jeter.

2. Damon is going to take the biggest hit of the three players on this list. His stolen base total will drop a bit as he won't be given as many "green lights" hitting in front of the heart of the lineup. His runs scored total will drop significantly as well, especially with Alex Rodriguez missing the first few months of the season. Damon will increase his RBI total, but not enough to negate the stolen base loss he'll see.

3. Brett Gardner is most certainly the starting center fielder with this news coming out. Batting Jeter in the leadoff hole splits up two left-handed hitters, but now Gardner will be the poor schlup trying to break up all of those double plays that Jeter hits in to. That's too bad as Gardner's stolen base potential is his greatest fantasy asset.

While this lineup move will arguably benefit the Yankees as they try to survive one of the toughest divisions in baseball without their prized third baseman temporarily, it's definitely bad for all fantasy owners involved with Jeter, Gardner or Damon.

Who Benefits If Derek Jeter Hits Leadoff? originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 27 Mar 2009 14:30:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Live Fantasy Baseball Chat, 1 PM ET

Matt Snyder — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 10:31:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Expert Chats, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Your fantasy baseball draft will most likely take place within the next three weeks. Are you properly prepared? If the answer is no, fret not. We'll just assume you've already been through the free fantasy baseball draft kit and get right into specific questions you might have.

Do you have the ninth pick and think it's too early to take your favorite player? Maybe you have been offered a keeper league trade and aren't sure you are getting the better end of the deal. With FanHouse, you get the personal touch. We'll get all of your questions -- as long as they are relevant and somewhat clean, of course, during our LIVE CHAT at 1 PM ET.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;a href=&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot;http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php?option=com_mobile&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;task=viewaltcast&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;altcast_code=a102879f69&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot; &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;Fantasy Baseball Chat 2.0&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/a&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;

Live Fantasy Baseball Chat, 1 PM ET originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 25 Mar 2009 10:31:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Flings: National League East

Knox Bardeen — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice

From now until the regular season begins, Fantasy Flings is where you'll find interesting story lines about your favorite teams from Spring Training. If there is a position battle, a nagging injury, a comeback story or a youngster making a surge for the "big club" we'll let you know the fantasy implications.

Atlanta Braves
Omar Infante and Matt Diaz are popular kids in camp as Spring Training winds down. They're popular not so much for their talent or spring numbers (although both have great spring stats) but for who they will be replacing in the starting lineup if mending time stretches into the regular season. Chipper Jones is nursing an oblique injury and Garrett Anderson a calf problem. Both are expected to return to action this week. If that doesn't happen or further set-backs occur, Infante and Diaz gain some NL-only value.

Florida Marlins
Injuries are running their course through Marlins camp like a virus. Hanley Ramirez is back on the field after a bout with shoulder tendinitis, but Gaby Sanchez hasn't made it back from a knee bruise and third base hopeful Dallas McPherson is now apparently on the mend with a side injury. Ramirez looks safe, but keep an eye on the other two as their health will go a long way towards shaping the Marlins infield. On a brighter note, the front three rotation mates for the Marlins (Johnson, Nolasco & Volstad) have a combined spring ERA of 2.53 and a strikeout to walk ratio of 5.00 (45:9 K:BB).

New York Mets
Daniel Murphy is all the rage in Port St. Lucie. He's batting .373 with four doubles and two triples in 59 at-bats. His bat really has never been in question, it's been his defense; something he's worked hard to fix. I know that defense isn't in the fantasy baseball dictionary, but there is a reason I mention Murphy's glove work. Now that his glove isn't a liability and he's swinging the bat fantastically, Murphy is being moved up to the #2 spot in the Mets batting order and given the starting left field job. Hitting in front of Beltran, Delgado and Wright will do a lot to bring Murphy's fantasy value up.

Philadelphia Phillies
Kyle Kendrick was optioned to the minor leagues in a move that can only mean that Chan Ho Park and J.A. Happ have made the team with impressive spring performances. Happ has a 3.15 ERA in 20 spring innings and has struck out 14 batters while walking just six. Park has 11 strikeouts in 11.2 innings but the most impressive stat is the fact that he's given up zero walks in route to a 1.54 ERA. One of these guys will be the Phillies fifth starter. Whoever wins the battle should instantly be grabbed in NL-only leagues and with as good as the Phillies are, should be monitored for mixed-league addition as well.

Washington Nationals
There are only two weeks left for the Nationals to decide which three playes will comprise the outfield for 2009. Seven players are competing for the honor but there is really only one spot up for grabs. Lastings Milledge has already been named the team's leadoff hitter which cements his hold on center field. Adam Dunn is back in camp from Team USA duties and should take over in left field soon. The final spot, in right field, will be decided over the remaining two weeks. Elijah Dukes was the early front-runner, but Austin Kearns and Josh Willingham are also in the running. There isn't room on the roster for all three players, so someone is going to lose out in a big way. Kearns and Dukes have both had decent springs at the plate and Dukes is the hitter with the highest upside. Avoid all in mixed-leagues until the final decision has been made. Dukes is my guess as he's got 20/20 potential. If he's named the started he should be instantly signed in all formats due to that upside and speed/power potential.

Fantasy Flings: National League East originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Tue, 24 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Spring Training Stats: When They Matter, When They Don't

Matt Snyder — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 15:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Dan Haren has been awful this spring. Adam Jones is raking, as is Chris Shelton. Michael Bourn has been a completely worthless hitter. Of the above players, two have stat-lines that matter, and two have ones that don't.

You see, judging spring training stat-lines in fantasy baseball can be helpful, but you don't want to get too caught up in it. After all, the games are meaningless. Most established veterans are just going through the motions in attempt to get their body ready for the real season. For them, the stat-lines are meaningless. Thus, I don't care that Haren has sucked thus far. I'd still draft him with confidence.

Let's take a deeper look at a when they matter, when they don't, and why.

When Spring Stats Matter

Up and Coming Players: When a young prospect or player who has only a year or two of major league experience enjoys a stellar spring, it's likely the sign that big things are on the horizon. There's a reason there has been hype about a player in the past, and a solid spring can springboard them into a successful April. This is where Adam Jones fits. We already liked him to come through with a breakout season, but now I'm even more confident about said prognostication. Others on this list: Brandon Wood, Kendry Morales, Pablo Sandoval, Billy Butler, Adam Lind, Ryan Sweeney, Travis Snider and Tommy Hanson.

On the other hand, if a team is hoping a certain player will bust out this year, and he's having a poor spring, that's a bad sign. It could be he's not quite ready, or it could be that he'll never be ready. Michael Bourn is an atrocious hitter this spring, so the Astros can't be happy about that. Others in this situation: Dallas McPherson, Andrew Miller (though I still like him eventually), Mark Reynolds when it comes to his strikeout problem, and Jeff Clement.

Bounce-Back Players: Maybe the player was once a huge prospect and hasn't panned out, or maybe he's just had an off-year or two. A good spring can be the sign the proverbial worm is starting to turn. Knox Bardeen has already discussed the progress being made by Jeff Francoeur. Delmon Young and Nelson Cruz are both players who haven't fared nearly as well in the majors as they could have. With Young, there's enormous hype. With Cruz, he's been a stud in the minors and never replicated them in the majors for an extended stretch. Still, we know both have talent, and they are each having a quality spring. Anthony Reyes came up with high expectations and fell apart, but his change of scenery helped last season, and he's parlayed that into a solid spring.

Again, though, those needing bounce-back campaigns who put up awful spring numbers could simply be done. Matt Clement, Barry Zito and Dontrelle Willis definitely count here.

Trying to Get Healthy: If a veteran player has sat out extended time in the past few years or is hurrying back to play on Opening Day, good spring stats are a sign he's ready. Chase Utley, Chris Ray and Chris Carpenter are showing real signs of being ready to go. Francisco Liriano went through growing pains last season, but he's now showing he's good to go.

Winning a Starting Job: Players in competition for a starting job who stepped up in the spring means they really want the job. They'll also really want to keep it. Don't underestimate motivation. It is a serious part of the game that numbers cannot bear out. Sean Marshall has come out and mowed down opposition all spring while locking down the Cubs' fifth rotation spot. Jason Motte has been stellar, while Chris Perez has been bad, which could clear up things at the back end of the Cardinals bullpen. Chris Dickerson has been sparkling for the Reds, in his attempt to win the left field job. Brett Gardner is majorly outshining Melky Cabrera in the Yankees' center field fight. This all matters.

When Spring Stats Don't Matter

Healthy, Established Veterans: Grady Sizemore is mashing, while Brandon Webb is not throwing well. Randy Johnson is on fire, while Haren is not. Pat Burrell has been an on-base machine, and Torii Hunter can't get on to save his life. What do all these guys have in common? My indifference toward their respective springs. We know what to expect from these guys, and I couldn't care less about their spring production. Some others having bad springs I don't care about: John Lackey, Matt Cain, Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Cordero, CC Sabathia.

Veterans With a Known Ceiling: As opposed to a "bounce-back," these are players who we know don't have fantasy stud inside them -- at least not for an extended period of time. Both Russell Branyan and Chris Shelton are going nuts this spring. Please. There is nothing you could say to convince me either player is ownable in fantasy -- with the possible exception of desperately needing home runs from Branyan in the deepest AL-only leagues. Others on this list: Matt Diaz, David Eckstein, Mike Jacobs (he's usable, but not this good).

Spring Training Stats: When They Matter, When They Don't originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 23 Mar 2009 15:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Flings: American League East

Knox Bardeen — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 11:55:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice

From now until the regular season begins, Fantasy Flings is where you'll find interesting story lines about your favorite teams from Spring Training. If there is a position battle, a nagging injury, a comeback story or a youngster making a surge for the "big club" we'll let you know the fantasy implications.

Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox rotation is still in flux. The four givens are Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield. The race for the fifth spot has pretty much been narrowed down to two; Brad Penny and Justin Masterson. Most feel the job will be Penny's, but Masterson is still being kept on a starter's schedule until Penny comes out and proves that he can pitch well enough to hold the spot down. Penny pitches today, and Masterson goes in a minor league game on Thursday. Both starts are crucial to these two pitchers and whoever wins this job will see his fantasy value rise.

Baltimore Orioles
How do you think George Sherrill feels to hear people describe Chris Ray as the former and future Orioles closer? If both he and Ray had more combative personalities, there may be a problem. But, both players seem to be fine with their current roles. Ray is the set-up guy and Sherrill the closer. Ray's numbers are far superior to Sherrill's this spring and the Orioles could be in for a closer controversy sooner than they'd like. Both pitchers have very late round ADP's (Sherrill is at 282.63 and Ray is behind him with a 325.76) meaning that whoever isn't the closer will probably be on your league's waiver wire to start the season. Watch this situation as the season rolls on. Ray could be a fantastic FAAB or waiver wire selection if he reclaims the job.

New York Yankees
Jorge Posada has announced to anyone who will listen that his surgically repaired shoulder is 100% healthy. He gunned down three of four base-runners in a minor league game Sunday while catching C.C. Sabathia. Unfortunately, Posada didn't get a hit. For you fantasy owners out there just remember that throwing out base-runners and having 100% healthy shoulders aren't rotisserie categories that get used very often. Until Posada proves he can return to 2007 form offensively he's best left for another owner to gamble on.

Tampa Bay Rays
Bad news was handed out to Rays fans after B.J. Upton was hit by a pitch and suffered a bone bruise to his left pinky finger. It hasn't been made official, but Upton will likely miss the opening series of games for the Rays. This injury shouldn't effect his fantasy value or draft status one bit. Owners of Upton will just want to bench him for the first week of play.

Toronto Blue Jays
You can remove Casey Janssen from your draft lists. The Jays starting pitcher who was on his way back from labrum surgery has suffered a set back. Stiffness in his back has shut Janssen down temporarily which eliminates him for contention for that fifth starter position. If Janssen gets back in April and starts proving he can take over a role in the rotation you can then start thinking about signing him in AL-only leagues. Right now the injury risk is too much to sign or draft him in any format.

Fantasy Flings: American League East originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 23 Mar 2009 11:55:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Will 2009 Be a Bounce-Back Season for Jeff Francoeur?

Knox Bardeen — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 23:39:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Value Machine, Draft Advice

Jeff Francoeur burst onto the Atlanta baseball scene in 2005, a homegrown talent with huge upside potential. He showed some value in 70 games that season after being called up, but really exploded in 2006 with 29 home runs and 103 RBI. The next season was another growing year as he brought his batting average up to .293 and still hit 19 home runs and 105 RBI. His 2008 season should have been another growth -- almost breakout -- season. But, something different happened.

Francoeur really regressed in 2008. His batting average dropped to .239 and he only hit 11 home runs. An even worse blow came when Francoeur, for the first time since being promoted to the big leagues, was sent to the minors. He returned from Mississippi quickly as injuries forced the Braves to recall the right fielder, but he still floundered in Atlanta. The question remains why...

Francoeur has always been a free swinger. Since his first game in Atlanta, everyone knew that he was going to get his hacks in. He struck out 111 times in 599 at-bats last season, and his poor on-base percentage can be attributed to the fact that he's never had a walk rate above 6.1 percent.

Another issue for Francoeur, and it's gotten worse each season, is the fact that he swings at pitches outside of the strike zone. In 2006, Francoeur swung at pitches in the strike zone 85.6 percent of the time. That rate dropped to 76.1 percent in 2008. Even though he made strides to stop swinging at so many pitches, something that most thought would help him, he seemed to err in pitch selection. He stopped swinging at pitches in the strike zone while continuing to swing at the same amount of pitches outside of the strike zone (36.3 percent in 2008). That was a recipe for disaster.

This spring, however, things are looking different for the 25-year-old outfielder. Francoeur changed his swing in the offseason.

Francoeur changed things in the offseason, losing some bulk, getting in better baseball conditioning, and altering his swing during a three-day tutorial with a hitting coach in Texas. The basic differences: Less hand movement, and more "open" with the front shoulder, which Francoeur said allows him to see pitches better with both eyes.

And it's looking like it's beginning to pay huge dividends. In 40 Grapefruit League at-bats, Francoeur is batting .350 with two doubles and nine RBI. Most importantly, he's walked six times and only struck out once. Re-read that last statement. If you know anything about Jeff Francoeur, you'll be amazed at that statistic. As he gets used to his new batting stance, he's showing that he's able to make quick decisions and even change his mind in certain situations.

If the 2009 version of Jeff Francoeur resembles the spring version, fantasy GM's who take a gamble on him are going to be very happy. He's currently being selected in the 22nd round of fantasy drafts with an average draft position of 256.19. I'm starting to believe in Francoeur as each spring game passes. He's a superb value pick in the 22nd round and is starting to become a must-draft in mixed leagues.

Will 2009 Be a Bounce-Back Season for Jeff Francoeur? originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Sat, 21 Mar 2009 23:39:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Spin: Lovin' Those Marlins Arms

Matt Snyder — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 09:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Sleepers, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

As I scrolled through the latest average draft position report on Mock Draft Central, I started to realize how much I love the entire Marlins rotation to provide stellar value this season. I knew I liked them, but as the numbers currently stand, I love them.

Obviously, let's not get nuts and start taking them in the first round or anything, and there are some more valuable than others. The fact is, though, that each of the five possesses very solid value at this point in draft season.

Let's take a look at the value of each, in order of fantasy rank.

Ricky Nolasco
Still only 26, he hasn't reached his peak yet -- and last season was a breakout campaign. He went 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. He struck out 186 hitters in 212 1/3 innings. Let's go deeper, though. Unlike most young pitchers, who have a tendency to wear down as the season progresses, Nolasco became an absolute monster down the stretch.

In his last 21 starts, he went 10-4 with a 2.83 ERA and a stellar 0.93 WHIP. He struck out 146 hitters in 146 1/3 innings. The most staggering thing he did? He only walked 17 batters in this stretch. That's more than 8 1/2 strikeouts per every free pass. This wasn't a fluke, either. The last time he had a full slate in the minors he went 14-3 with a 2.89 ERA. Now he pitches half his games in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dolphin Stadium.

He's well on his way to becoming a lower-tier fantasy ace, the anchor to your staff. A.J. Burnett, Edinson Volquez, and Rich Harden are going in front of him. Go ahead. I'll take Nolasco.

By the way, the Cubs traded him for Juan Pierre. That almost makes me vomit. Actually, there shouldn't be an "almost" in that sentence. I'll be right back ...

Josh Johnson
He began to broach his immense potential as a 22-year-old in 2006, when he finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting. The following season, however, he went through surgery on his throwing arm and faced a long road back. When he returned midway through last season, we didn't quite know what to expect. After his finish, though, he clearly still has top-of-the-rotation type stuff.

The 6-foot-7 righty went 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his 14 starts to close out the season. During this stretch, you can bet he was still working out the kinks and getting himself back into the groove. For this year, he'll have had a full offseason and spring to work with. I expect the strikeouts to go up and walks to go down (it was 77/27 K/BB in 87 1/3 innings).

Do you really want Randy Johnson and Chris Young before him? Their ADP is earlier.

Chris Volstad
Another 6-foot-7 righty, Volstad broke into the league at 21 last July. In 14 starts, he went 6-4 with a sparkling 2.88 ERA. He only allowed three home runs, and he was very consistent. Only twice did he give up four runs and he never allowed more. He worked at least six innings in nine of his 14 starts. He's not a big strikeout guy, but his ability to consistently spin quality starts will give him the chance to pile up wins, while always giving significant help to your ERA.

The control could be a concern, but he's only 22. He'll improve as time passes.

Anibal Sanchez
I covered the reasons to like Sanchez in my Bang for Your Buck column. He's since moved up to 89th in starting pitchers' ADP -- thanks to me, of course -- but he's still coming in behind Taylor Buchholz, Clay Buchholz, Brad Penny, Todd Wellemeyer, Ben Sheets, Kyle Lohse, Phil Hughes (seriously?) and Paul Maholm. I'd take Sanchez over any of these guys for varying reasons.

Andrew Miller
The phenom from North Carolina has yet to hit it big, as most assumed he would while watching him dominate the 2006 College World Series. The Marlins even removed him from the rotation in September. Still, he hasn't even reached his 24th birthday. Is that really the time to give up on someone with such astronomical potential? He was downright dominant in Double-A in 2007, but other than that he's pretty much been taking his lumps in the bigs.

Assuming he's mentally tough enough to learn from his mistakes on the big stage -- if you can call baseball in Miami the "big stage" -- things will start clicking.

o. Control was a big issue last year. He needs to learn the ballpark in which he pitches is very conducive to helping pitchers, and the defense behind him is really solid. This isn't college, so you don't have to miss bats all the time.

o. He's giving up lots of hits, but not an overly large amount of home runs. His absurd .346 allowed BABIP didn't help matters on that front last season. That number should normalize to around .315 or so this season. When that happens, in addition to his increased command, his rate stats will start to come back down.

Miller's easily the least draftable player on here, but he's certainly draftable in deep NL-only leagues due to his vast upside. I'll project 12 wins, 135 strikeouts, a 4.25 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He's not great yet, but those numbers can be used in really, really deep leagues.

Fantasy Spin: Lovin' Those Marlins Arms originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Sat, 21 Mar 2009 09:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: Top Prospects

Knox Bardeen — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 22:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Kids Are Alright, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

For more great features, check out FanHouse's free fantasy baseball draft kit.

Every season, right around this time, there is a large flock of prospects all trying to prove to themselves and the front office that they belong in big league baseball. The key to fantasy baseball success when speaking of these prospects is to know whether or not they are going to make the team out of Spring Training. If not, you need to weigh the time line of each player and figure out if he should be a selection in your fantasy draft or if you'll be spending FAAB money or using waiver priority status on him.

Choose wisely when considering the acquisition of prospects. Most of these guys have bright, rocket-ship upside. But, not all will become effective fantasy assets.

Tommy Hanson, Braves - Unless a string of injuries occur to the Braves rotation this spring, Hanson will start the season at Triple-A Gwinnett. He'll, most likely, be the first starter called up as he was a strikeout machine in the Arizona Fall League and is still showing off his arm this spring. He's good enough to make a front-of-the-rotation impact almost instantly.

Matt Wieters, Orioles - In 437 minor league at-bats Wieters hit .355 with 27 home runs. He's also hitting .367 with three doubles and a home run in 30 spring at-bats. Remember, however, that Wieters has only one professional season under his belt and he's never seen a pitch above Double-A. He'll start the season in the minors and how soon he gets called up will determine his 2009 fantasy value. If you're in a keeper league, he's a must-add immediately.

David Price, Rays - We all remember what Price did in the postseason last year. He also was 12-1 with 109 strikeouts in 19 starts in the minors. Unfortunately for fantasy GMs, Price will start the season back at Triple-A where he can get more experience as a starter and work on a changeup. His value is only in keeper leagues right now. But, he'll contribute in all formats when called up since he pitches on such a good team.

Travis Snider, Blue Jays - Snider performed well in his late-season call-up, hitting .301 in 73 at-bats. He also hit .275 and 19 home runs in combined Double-A and Triple-A last season. Snider enters the season as a lock for a starting outfield slot in Toronto and has huge upside with the power in his bat. He's a very solid last-round selection for your fantasy team.

Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks - Scherzer is a dominating force on the mound with a fastball that touches the upper 90s on the radar gun. He struck out 66 batters last year in 56 innings at the major-league level and was even better in Triple-A, striking out 79 in 53 innings. He's slated as the Diamondbacks' fifth starter and since he's a power pitcher playing on a quality team in a division full of pitchers parks, he should be selected in fantasy drafts starting in the 17th round in mixed leagues.

Colby Rasmus, Cardinals - Rasmus actually dropped in the prospect rankings with his typical slow start in 2008. He added a few injuries to the mix and never made it to St. Louis in 2008. He, most likely, won't start the 2009 season in St. Louis either. When healthy, he has huge power upside but he still may have to wait a few months to break into the Cardinals' outfield. Unless you're in a super deep keeper league, it's best to wait on Rasmus until he's called up.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals - The Nationals' top pitching prospect spent last year in Advanced-A and Double-A racking up a 10-3 record with a 2.89 ERA and 134 strikeouts in 134 innings. But, he might be locking up the fifth rotation spot in Washington this spring by dominating hitters. He's pitched 12.1 innings and struck out 16 while only walking two. He hasn't given up an earned run all spring. It's time to start taking late-round fliers on him in fantasy drafts. He could be special in 2009.

Cameron Maybin, Marlins - Maybin is a five-tool prospect with massive upside potential. He's playing very well this spring, hitting .333 in 36 at-bats, and has shown flashes of brilliant speed. The Marlins are set to use Maybin in center field and as their leadoff hitter. He should be drafted in all formats and is my early Rookie of the Year frontrunner.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants - As an 18-year-old in his first professional season Bumgarner struck out 164 batters and only walked 21 in 141.2 innings. He was 15-3 with a 1.46 ERA. Now that was just in Single-A for the Giants, and as lovely as those numbers are, Bumgarner probably won't be joining the Giants' rotation this season at all. Leave him alone unless you have a minor league system to work with in your fantasy league.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants - Sandoval batted .345 in 145 major league innings last season, but more important to fantasy owners he spent time playing first base, third base and catcher. A 22-year-old hitter who jumped from Advanced-A to the Giants in less than a year, Sandoval is also a line drive hitter who should develop some power as he gets older. Don't expect him to be behind the plate in '09, but expect him to be gone by the 19th round in most fantasy drafts.

Gio Gonzalez, Athletics - Gonzalez didn't shine is his brief call-up late last season, but the proof is in the pudding with the dominance he has shown on the mound in his years in the minors. In each of his first five professional seasons, Gonzalez has struck out more than a batter per inning. He may start the season in the bullpen, but his calling is in the front of the rotation. He should be on deep AL-only draft boards as well as long-term keeper leagues. Mixed leaguers should keep an eye on him as soon as he hits the rotation.

Gaby Sanchez, Marlins - It looks as if Sanchez is going to be given the starting job at first base for the Marlins this season. That makes him draft-ready for deep NL-only leagues right now. The 17 home runs and 92 RBI with a .314 batting average for the Double-A Mudcats last season show mixed-league GMs that he should be on their radar. If he shows that power stroke for the Marlins this season, grab him off of the waiver wire as soon as you can.

Rick Porcello, Tigers - Porcello only has one professional season under his belt, but that isn't stopping the Tigers from considering him for a rotation spot out of camp this spring. He's more likely to start 2009 in the minors or in the Tigers bullpen. But, he projects as the future Tigers ace and should be owned in all long-term keeper leagues. Other fantasy GMs should use a wait-and-see approach on Porcello. If he makes the rotation this season, sign him immediately.

Brett Gardner, Yankees - This speedster is locked in a battle for the Yankees' center field job this spring -- a competition most feel he's winning. He's a speedster, stealing 37 bases in Triple-A last year and 39 the year before. His ability to get on base and his great wheels will be a great asset to AL-only owners right now. If he does win the job outright and hits at the top of the order, he will start looking good to mixed-league fantasy teams too.

Neftali Feliz, Rangers - At only 20 years old, Feliz is quickly becoming the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. He might not start the season in Texas, but he already should be owned in all deep keeper leagues. He struck out 154 batters in 127.1 innings in combined Single-A and Double-A action last year and only gave up three home runs. That kind of power pitching with the ability to keep the ball in the park will get Feliz to the big club quickly.

Daniel Murphy, Mets - Murphy impressed in hie short call-up last season hitting .313 in 131 at-bats, but what has solidified his hold on the starting left field job is his .375 batting average with five extra-base hits this spring. As the Mets starting left fielder and likely second hitter in the lineup, Murphy is draftable in all NL-only leagues and should be quickly signed in mixed leagues if he continues to hit like he has over his last 179 at-bats.

Brett Anderson, Athletics - Anderson had a 4.37 strikeout-to-walk ratio in two minor league stops last season and struck out 118 batters in only 105 innings. This groundball pitcher is a must-have in deep keeper leagues and is one of the top prospects in baseball. If he breaks camp in the A's rotation, all fantasy GMs need to monitor his progress and sign him as quickly as he shows that he's ready to live up the all of the hype.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers - Andrus has been given the starting job in Texas at shortstop and that alone should merit a look from AL-only folks. His 54 stolen bases and .295 batting average at Double-A Frisco last season mean that you can safely take a late-round flier on him in mixed leagues as well. He's never going to be a bruiser at the plate, but his high average / great speed combo will work well for you.

Trevor Cahill, Athletics - It only seems like Oakland has all of the pitching prospects in baseball ... OK they do. Cahill struck out 136 batters in only 124.1 combined minor league innings last season and had a WHIP of 1.01. He's only 21 years old and hasn't pitched above Double-A, but Cahill's reported to have the most upside of any of the A's pitching prospects and should be owned in deep keeper leagues. His very outside shot at making the rotation this season means that everyone in the fantasy realm should keep an eye on him and pounce if he's in Oakland next month.

Mat Gamel, Brewers - Gamel has a small chance at winning the starting third base job this spring, but probably will head back to Triple-A for a little more seasoning. He hit .325 with 20 home runs and 99 RBI in combined minor league action last season and projects as a middle-of-the-lineup RBI machine. He has more talent than anyone currently fielding third base for the Brewers so his arrival is shortly due. He should be owned in all deep keeper leagues and even you NL-only owners can consider taking a late-round flier on him, just in case he makes the team.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: Top Prospects originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Fri, 20 Mar 2009 22:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Value Update: Chase Utley

Matt Snyder — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 14:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Injury Report, MLB Sleepers, Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

It has been over a month since we posted a roundtable on the value of the man who used to be the undisputed best fantasy second baseman in baseball. Within the past month, though, things have changed. Chase Utley has recently started playing in Spring Training games -- two games, six plate appearances and nine innings on defense.

Opening Day for the Phillies is two weeks from Sunday. Do we expect Utley to be completely ready for the season by then, and, if so, how does this alter his fantasy value?

To be succinct, in the true yada, yada, yada sense: Yes, he's going to be ready, and he's now the top second baseman available. He's a first-round pick in all leagues.

We can also elaborate, though:
As Utley works himself into shape, three full weeks of legitimate Spring Training will be more than enough time for him to gain a comfort zone. Veterans rarely play anywhere close to full-time in the spring anyway, so Utley will be cramming his program into a shorter period. He may not start quite as hot as last year, but he'll be playing. That's really all we need to know to anoint him an easy first-rounder.

Another nugget of note, Utley developed this hip condition -- from his he's currently recovering -- in early June. Through June 3rd, Utley was on pace for an MVP season. He was hitting .325 (1.092 OPS) with 21 home runs, 53 RBI, 49 runs, and six stolen bases. That was in only 60 games.

The rest of the way was a different story, though. In his last 99 games, Utley hit only .272 (.808 OPS) with 12 home runs, 51 RBI, 64 runs, and eight stolen bases. That's a drastic decline from the early season surge.

It's possible there were other factors at work. Coming back to Earth from that early season pace was a bit inevitable, and outside factors like BABIP played a role as well. You knew his stats would normalize closer to the mean of his career arc, but those last 100 games were way worse than the Chase Utley we know.

Let's just consider the facts. We know Chase Utley developed a hip condition that required offseason surgery. We know it was discovered in the early part of June. We know his stats took a significant decline after the third day of June. It really sounds like the hip had a lot to do with the decline, doesn't it? Otherwise, that's one huge coincidence.

As things currently stand, there's certainly enough evidence to take a leap with Utley as a solid first-rounder, due to the drop off at second base after the upper-tier.

Fantasy Value Update: Chase Utley originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 18 Mar 2009 14:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Angels

Matt Snyder — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the...
Team about to win about 15 less games this season. Teams in their division have closed the gap on the Angels, who are aging in some spots and not yet developed at others. The biggest factor to consider in fantasy is how many less games their starting pitchers will likely win.

The Breakout
It is time. Brandon Wood has been pined over by fantasy owners for the past two seasons, but he has yet to fulfill his gargantuan promise in several short major league stints. This year, at age 24, he will start to show what he's got.

Thus far, in his 187 plate appearances in the majors, he's shown no grasp of the strike zone, putting up a mind-boggling 55 strikeouts to only four free passes. That's the type of ugliness that can ruin careers. This spring, though, he's doing much better. Through Monday, he had 34 plate appearances and had only struck out three times. He also garnered two walks, and is killing the ball. Wood is hitting .375 with a .719 slugging percentage this spring.

Yes, it's true that spring stats don't necessarily translate, but we're talking about a kid who absolutely obliterates minor league pitching. In 2005, he hit .321 with 43 home runs and 116 RBI in 134 games. Last season, he hit 31 homers and drove home 84 runs in only 103 triple-A games.

This season, he eventually earns a full-time job with the Angels -- and progressively moves his way to the middle of the lineup. He's even slimmed down, in an attempt to gain more agility, in case he needs to play shortstop.

The Bust
Joe Saunders was way too good last year. With a mediocre-at-best and embarrassing-at-worst strikeout rate (only 103 punch outs in 198 innings), you better be able to count on that 3.41 ERA and those 17 wins again. And that, you just can't do. First of all, wins are not to be counted on -- and the Angels aren't winning 100 games again. Secondly, his peripherals show he was the beneficiary of some nice fortune last year. His BABIP was only .267 and the Angels defense played like world beaters behind him. Things will normalize this season.

If you get ready to draft Saunders, ask yourself if you want a 4.30 ERA and 12 wins with those lackluster Ks. I'll take Kevin Slowey, Ted Lilly, or Clayton Kershaw instead (all of whom are behind him on current ADP charts).

The Lineup
1. Chone Figgins, 3B
2. Howie Kendrick, 2B
3. Bobby Abreu, LF
4. Vladimir Guerrero, RF
5. Torii Hunter, CF
6. Juan Rivera, DH
7. Kendry Morales, 1B
8. Mike Napoli, C
9. Erick Aybar / Brandon Wood, SS

The supremely overpaid Gary Matthews will also participate in the outfield logjam. Figgins could lend a hand as well, clearing a better path for Wood, if injury issues arise. In that outfield, it's hard to see them not arising.

The Rotation
1. John Lackey
2. Ervin Santana*
3. Joe Saunders
4. Jered Weaver
5. Dustin Moseley

Nick Adenhart could factor here eventually, but he took some steps backward last season. Also, Kelvim Escobar is slated to come back around the All-Star break. Take note in DL leagues.

*Santana is out for at least a few starts, so downgrade his status a bit in all leagues.

The Bullpen
CL - Brian Fuentes
SU - Jose Arredondo
SU - Scot Shields

The Skinny
It's a pretty deep fantasy squad here, as there are quality options nearly everywhere. Vlad, Abreu, and Hunter aren't what they once were, but they should definitely be owned in all leagues. Lackey is a fantasy ace in larger leagues, and a very solid SP2 in shallow leagues. Fuentes should fill in nicely for K-Rod, but you aren't seeing anywhere near those save chances again. Some others ...

- Figgins is versatile enough to keep himself on the field, but injuries have prevented that the past two seasons. With no power and a chance his speed starts to deteriorate at age 31, he's not as solid a pick as he used to be.

- Several owners in your league may have soured on Kendrick. You see, he's from the same school as Delmon Young, Matt Cain, and even Alex Gordon. We've waited the past three seasons for his big breakout season, and it hasn't come yet, as he's still never played more than 92 games. Remember, though, Kendrick is only 25 years-old. Also remember, Figgins has a .360 career batting average in the minors. This kid has 15-homer, 25-stolen base potential, in addition to winning the batting title. It could happen as early as this year.

- Another still-young player some seem to have written off is Weaver. Though he's spun over 460 innings in his career, he's still only 26. His strikeout rate rose significantly last season, but so did his ERA. Still, I believe he's headed in the right direction and has 15 wins, an ERA under 4.00, a WHIP around 1.25 and 175 strikeouts in him.

- There aren't many, if any, non-closing relievers more valuable than Arredondo.

- Finally, if we could ever get regular playing time out of Napoli, he'd be a monster. Last season he hit 20 home runs and stole seven bases with a .273 average. He did this in only 78 games. At 27 years-old, he's still got some room for growth as well. If he stays healthy and the Angels can overlook his sub-par defense enough to get him in the lineup 125 times, he's going to be an elite fantasy catcher.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Angels originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Wed, 18 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Preview: Oakland A's

Matt Snyder — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the...
Most average team in the league. It's weird, because there don't seem to be many real weaknesses on team -- but can you really find a bunch of strengths? I hate the term "very average," but this team is pretty close to the mean across the board. As you scroll through ADP charts, you'll find the A's aren't often towards the top of the lists, but they are definitely there. As I said, average.

The Breakout
This is a really vanilla team here in terms of expectations versus value. There aren't really any great breakout picks. A late, hidden gem in most drafts, however, is Dana Eveland. He's not even going in the top 100 starting pitchers on MDC's latest ADP report. Barry Zito and Rich Hill are, though. C'mon.

Eveland is a 25 year-old who just went through his first full season as a starting pitcher in the majors. The experience gained will be valuable as he moves forward and establishes himself as a quality starter. He actually had a very nice first half of the season, compiling a 3.34 ERA through his first 16 outings. The rest of the way, however, was disastrous (5.70 ERA in last 13 trips). He could have broken down, having thrown a career high in innings, or it's possible he wasn't making adjustments as fast as the hitters facing him. Either way, the experience will be taken as a growing experience.

In the minors, Eveland's highest ERA for a single season was 2.74. He also had a much higher strikeout rate in the minors (nearly one per inning), so he should improve upon the poor showing last year (118 in 168 innings). Control and command will be important early on. Eveland shouldn't be drafted in mixed leagues, but if you notice a few strong outings accompanied by high strikeouts and low walks, it's time to jump on board. He's a SP3 in mixed leagues down the road, and it's conceivable that happens this year.

The Bust
This is going to look like we really despise Matt Holliday, but he's the only choice here. We've already covered him in the draft kit, but he is still just going far too high. I can't justify him being taken over Manny Ramirez, B.J. Upton, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, or Carlos Lee -- yet that is the list of outfielders going after him.

The Lineup
1. Mark Ellis, 2B
2. Orlando Cabrera, SS
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Jason Giambi, DH
5. Jack Cust, RF
6. Daric Barton, 1B
7. Bobby Crosby / Nomar Garciaparra, 3B
8. Kurt Suzuki, C
9. Ryan Sweeney, CF

There's a ton of moving and shaking that could happen here. Eric Chavez would likely bat fifth or sixth and play third base if he ever gets healthy. If they would rather have Travis Buck in the lineup than Cust or Barton, he could play right field and Giambi could play first base. Sweeney, Ellis, and Cabrera could all play musical chairs in the batting order as well.

The Rotation
1. Justin Duchscherer
2. Dana Eveland
3. Sean Gallagher
4. Gio Gonzalez
5. Josh Outman / Dallas Braden

It's entirely possible, actually, that Braden and Outman both squeeze Gio out of the rotation.

The Bullpen
CL - Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler

The Skinny
o. As I said above, it's a pretty vanilla team. There aren't many guys undervalued, but there aren't many overvalued either. You know to avoid Holliday, you know Giambi's going to be bombs at the expense of average, and you know the closers are both solid -- yet splitting time.

o. If you cover yourself with high-strikeout guys in the early rounds, Duchscherer is a solid option to help bring down that ERA and WHIP. His K-rate is really low, but he put up a 2.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP last season, his first as a starter. Now that he's made the transition he'll be more comfortable, and you can expect those numbers to stay in the same ballpark.

o. Devine and Ziegler are both really good closing options after the full-timers have flown off the board far earlier. They should both garner somewhere in the range of 20 saves with really good rate stats. Devine holds more value due to a much higher strikeout rate.

o. Sweeney has a chance to take a big step forward in 2009. He got a chance to accrue over 400 plate appearances in his first season in Oakland, and he displayed good promise. He doesn't really have star potential, but there's a chance you see a .300 average with more than 10 steals and home runs. He should be a good value pick late in AL-only drafts.

o. It's true that Suzuki is still pretty young -- 25 -- but he's never shown the ability to be an offensive star.

o. Finally, Gio Gonzalez has star potential down the road, but he's still not guaranteed a rotation spot. He can be stellar in all four starting pitching categories, especially in this ballpark. If he gets a rotation spot, take heed in deeper leagues. If he gets sent down, pay attention to his progress in the minors.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: Oakland A's originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Tue, 17 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Drafting Eric Byrnes

Knox Bardeen — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 01:05:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice

Diamondbacks outfielder Eric Byrnes is slowly making his comeback from his battle with hamstring injuries. He played in a minor league game on Sunday and went three for five with a stolen base. He even seems to have his speed back.

He said he was clocked in 4.18 seconds running out a ground ball to first. He said he regularly was timed at 4.2 before he was hurt.

What he doesn't have back is his starting job.

Just where Byrnes - in the second year of a three-year, $30 million contract - would play is another problem. The Diamondbacks' outfield is set with Conor Jackson in left, Chris Young in center and Justin Upton in right. Melvin has talked about Byrnes relieving all three at times.

The worrisome part of that quote is that Melvin seems to have Byrnes slated as the 4th outfielder. That's fine, and probably a good place for him coming back from injury, but it seems that fantasy GM's participating in mock drafts over at Mock Draft Central are picking Byrnes in the 13th round with an average draft position of 155.69.

It seems as if folks are drafting him with the recollection of his 20/20 season in 2006 or his 50 stolen base performance in 2007 while totally forgetting about his injury laden 2008 campaign of 206 at-bats with a batting average of .209. Not to mention the fact that Byrnes is 33-years-old. In the 13th round, it's OK to draft a guy with upside who's coming off of an injury plagued season; just like Byrnes. It's even OK to draft him in the 13th round if his upside is high enough. However, it's not OK to draft this guy that high if he doesn't even have a starting job.

Byrnes needed 562 at-bats in '06 to to bop 26 homers and steal 25 bases. He needed 626 at-bats in '07 to steal 50 bases while hitting 21 home runs. How many at-bats do you think a healthy Eric Byrnes will get as the fourth outfielder in Arizona behind Jackson, Young and Upton? Let's not even mention the fact that Byrnes is only one minor league game into his comeback. What if he's not 100% healthy by Opening Day?

There are many outfielders who would be safer selections that currently have higher ADP's, including two-thirds of the Diamondbacks outfield that Byrnes is backing up. If you can grab Byrnes super late feel free. But taking him in the 13th round before guys like Justin Upton (215.63), Denard Span (220.42) or Coco Crisp (260.08) is just silly. Stop the madness!

Drafting Eric Byrnes originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Tue, 17 Mar 2009 01:05:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Spring Training Eye Spy: Chris Volstad

Knox Bardeen — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 23:00:00 EST

Filed under: MLB Sleepers, Draft Advice

'Eye Spy' details first-hand Spring Training notes and observations from a fantasy baseball perspective.

I've had the pleasure of watching some pretty good starting pitchers since I've been in Florida watching Grapefruit League action. I was there for Johan Santana's first spring start versus Ricky Nolasco. I got to see Braves phenom Tommy Hanson go up against Josh Johnson. But, of all the starters I've seen, no performance was as good as Sunday's start by Marlins starter Chris Volstad.

Volstad went five strong innings on Sunday, striking out three, walking none and giving up only three hits. He was in compete control on the mound even though it wasn't what I'd call a dominant performance. He was doing a great job of keeping hitters guessing. There were a number of occasions where Volstad had a hitter way out front for a weak grounder or had batters fouling off pitches, just to stay alive. One of the three hits he gave up was a complete piece of luck as Brian Schneider was so fooled by a pitch he threw his hands and bat at the ball and blooped it into center field.

Last season, Volstad was an extreme ground ball pitcher. He had a 53.4% ground ball rate which helped keep his ERA down below three at 2.88. He flashed those same skills Sunday getting nine ground ball outs and only recording two flyball outs. He's a strikeout neutral pitcher, meaning he doesn't record a lot of strikeouts compared to his innings pitched. He had 52 strikeouts in 84.1 innings last season while giving up 36 walks. Now, that walk rate is a bit high, but from what I saw on Sunday and from his spring numbers, he's dramatically lowering his bases on balls. This spring he's struck out seven while only walking two batters. That's a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.4 compared to 1.4 last season.

Volstad's improved walk rate, along with his continued ground ball superiority means that his ERA should stay low. He's never going to be a source of strike outs for your fantasy team, but his average draft position of 256.35 (22nd round) means he's a great starting pitcher to select for value late in fantasy drafts. He's going to outperform his draft slot and make you a winning fantasy GM.

Spring Training Eye Spy: Chris Volstad originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 16 Mar 2009 23:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Rangers

Matt Snyder — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the...
Best offense in the league. The Rangers are going to score more runs than any other team, and they don't have an over-abundance of star-power. This means their position players are a veritable fantasy goldmine. On the flip-side, though, their pitching staff is atrocious, especially the starters. Needless to say, if you are picking a Texas Ranger on draft day, he'd probably better be on the offensive side of the board.

The Breakout
Everybody loves Chris Davis, and with good reason. I already covered him in Five Guys to Win Your League, however, so I'll won't take the lazy route and harp on him again. Plus, I'm getting worried he's gaining too much steam. I hate it when that happens. We need to come up with a name for a guy who gets way too popular early in the offseason and ends up getting drafted too high (Matt Wieters is another example for this year).

You know who isn't getting too much love, though? Nelson Cruz.

Cruz has some serious power. He had struggled before last season, but 2008 was special. In just 103 minor league games, Cruz hit 37 home runs and drove in 99. His .342 average and 24 stolen bases weren't bad either. The question then became if he could ever translate those numbers to the bigs. In September, he answered those questions. In only 115 at-bats, Cruz hit .330 with 7 homers and 26 RBI. You can't expect these numbers, but it's entirely possible for him to hit 40 bombs and drive him well over 100 runs. The key will be consistency.

The Bust
Michael Young is still available at shortstop, so his value isn't completely killed. The problem is that he used to have a good amount of power, but that has seriously dwindled. His overall offense performance has gradually diminished since his career year in 2005.

Don't get me wrong, he's still a worthy starter in shallow mixed leagues. The problem is that I just ventured over to an ADP chart and I'm seeing him being drafted above Stephen Drew, Derek Jeter, Troy Tulowitzki, and J.J. Hardy. He's going three whole rounds in front of Hardy, which is an egregious error. Let's compare the two in the five traditional categories (batting average/home runs/RBI/runs/stolen bases) from last season:

Young: .284/12/82/102/10
Hardy: .283/24/74/78/2

Now, consider Hardy's only 26 years old and still improving. Young's 32 and has been in decline for the last three years. Is there seriously a three-round difference there? I'll take Hardy, and you can have Young. Deal?

The Lineup
1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Michael Young, 3B
3. Josh Hamilton, CF
4. Nelson Cruz, RF
5. Hank Blalock, DH
6. Chris Davis, 1B
7. David Murphy, LF
8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Taylor Teagarden, C
9. Elvis Andrus, SS

It's possible the team uses Marlon Byrd or Andruw Jones in center field. This would shift Hamilton to right in place of Cruz. Cruz could also bump Murphy out in left field, in this scenario, or DH. However the suffling goes, Hamilton and Cruz will not lose out on at-bats.

The Rotation
1. Kevin Millwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Scott Feldman
4. Matt Harrison
5. Brandon McCarthy

The Bullpen
CL - Frank Francisco
SU - Eddie Guardado
SU - C.J. Wilson

The Skinny
o. As I said in the intro, lots of offense and very little pitching. Kinsler and Hamilton are elite picks. Young, Cruz, Davis, and Blalock should be owned in most leagues, and the other guys mentioned are worth a look in larger leagues. The only pitcher I would personally want to own in any league if Francisco. He has serious strikeout potential, having punched out 83 in 63 1/3 innings last year. He's a very cheap option at closer.

o. Blalock is still only 28 years-old, and he's battled through a series of really tough injuries since 2005. We've seen the potential in him, as he hit 61 home runs and drove in 200 in his first two full seasons. In this lineup and ballpark, there's no reason to forget about him. He could morph right back into the 30-homer 100-RBI guy we saw when he was 23.

o. Watch the catching battle, because if one of the two gains the overwhelming majority of the playing time, he automatically becomes a nice, cheap option. Both have very promising offensive futures.

o. I won't be taking this leap, but I'd just like to point out that Andruw Jones is so maligned he may be a cheap steal in huge AL-only leagues. Remember, he's apologized for being a colossal bust last season, and he's still only going to be 32 years-old in 2009. Only take him in the absolute last round of a 27-round or bigger monoleague, though. You don't want him to cost you anything, because odds are he's done being productive.

o. Finally, Andrus is up more for his glove than his bat. He has tons of stolen base potential -- he swiped 54 last year in double-A -- but we don't yet know if he'll be running so much with the powerful offense around him. He'll also probably kill your batting average while not providing any power. He's a cheap source of speed in AL-only leagues, but should be ignored in all others.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Rangers originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Mon, 16 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Mariners

Matt Snyder — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the...
Team who someone predicted would win the World Series last year. Seriously. When you stop laughing, you can check out the link (he's the top one listed -- though when you see his other atrocious picks you won't be surprised). Was I any better? Glad you asked. I actually took Mr. Downey to task before Opening Day. You can check the rest of my stuff if you wish, as there were some misses in there.

Anyway, it's safe to say expectations are a slight bit lower heading into '08.

The Breakout(s)
Jose Lopez had his breakout season last year, but he continues to fly under the radar. He's currently going 152 overall (using MDC's ADP), which is a whopping 72 picks behind Robinson Cano. That's six rounds in a 12-team league. There's no way the gap between the two should be that large.

Lopez is still only 25 years-old, and showed drastic improvement from 2007 to 2008. He has the innate talent to continue this growth into a very solid major league hitter. It's reasonable to expect .300 with 20 home runs, 95 RBI, 85 runs, and 10 steals.

If you want someone a little less obvious, Wladimir Balentien is a deep league option. The 24 year-old has 30 home run/20 steal potential down the road. He won't even sniff those numbers this season, but there will come a time the Mariners have to just let him adapt at the big league level. Deep AL-only leaguers, take note.

The Bust?
There really aren't guys being overvalued on this team. It's a pretty equal mix of being maligned and buried up in the northwest corner of our country. There are plenty of stay-away guys here, but none that jump out as being incredibly overvalued.

But, since I have to pick one, I'll go with Kenji Johjima. He's about to fully lose his job to a young up-and-comer, and he's still going to high in drafts. Yeah, it's only 20th among catcher's ADP, but I see Yadier Molina, John Baker, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Chris Snyder, and Taylor Teagarden behind him. Whether it's playing time or upside, there's no reason to draft Johjima over any of those guys.

The Lineup
1. Ichiro Suzuki, RF
2. Jose Lopez, 2B
3. Adrian Beltre, 3B
4. Ken Griffey, DH
5. Russell Branyan / Mike Sweeney, 1B
6. Franklin Gutierrez, CF
7. Kenji Johjima / Jeff Clement, C
8. Wladimir Balentien, LF
9. Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

They really need to teach someone like Junior, Johjima, or Clement to play first base. Wow, that's ugly. Newly acquired Ronny Cedeno will accrue at-bats all over the infield. Endy Chavez will be in the outfield mix.

The Rotation
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Erik Bedard
3. Jarrod Washburn
4. Carlos Silva
5. Brandon Morrow

Garrett Olson and Ryan Roland-Smith will also figure into the mix. Too bad they can't just dump those absurd contracts of Washburn and Silva in favor of a youth movement.

The Bullpen
CL? - Mark Lowe
SU - Miguel Batista
SU - Tyler Walker
SU - David Aardsma
Eventual closer - Chad Cordero

Needless to say, you want no part of this mess, as I said in my Always Be Closing entry.

The Skinny
o. In shallow leagues, you won't be seeing many Mariners fly off the board. In a 12-team mixed league with a normal-sized roster, only Ichiro, Lopez, Beltre, King Felix, and Bedard should be drafted. I could see Clement as a last-round catching gamble in those as well. Overall, I'd feel a lot better about this team if they had an Adam Dunn/Manny Ramirez type power hitter in the middle of the order. There's just no protection for a nice top three in the batting order.

o. I did love Morrow earlier, but now he's having some arm issues. That's scary in a guy this young who throws so hard. If he's totally healthy, I could recommend him in mixed leagues. He's got good enough stuff to stick as a high-quality starter.

o. I've already discussed the value that can be found in Beltre and Betancourt. I also already discussed my thoughts on Felix Hernandez.

o. Gutierrez has flashed 20/20 potential in the minors, but never really came into full-time at-bats in Cleveland. Assuming the Mariners leave him alone in center-field, he's got the chance to make an impact in AL-only leagues. He'll need a year of growth before the big payoff comes in 2010, though.

o. Do not draft Washburn or Silva. In any league. Please.

o. Finally, I could see Cordero paying dividends in the second half of the season. He's a good closer who is battling back from injury. We saw B.J. Ryan rush back last season and put up decent numbers. Just keep him in mind in large AL-only roto leagues. He could be a very cheap source of 10-15 saves.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Mariners originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Sun, 15 Mar 2009 10:00:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Twins

Knox Bardeen — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 16:15:00 EST

Filed under: Draft Advice, Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the...

Absolute best team in baseball that you've never heard of. The Twins don't spend a lot of money nor do they make a lot of headlines. What they are good at, however, is winning. The Twins won the American League Central Division every year from 2002 to 2004 and again in 2006. In 2007 they finished third in the division and in 2008 they lost a one-game playoff to just miss the post season. This team wins with a small-ball, almost National League feel or approach.

They finished third in the American League in batting average last year, but finished last in home runs. Good young pitching will anchor this staff and the team will more than welcome back Francisco Liriano to the rotation. Joe Nathan is one of the best closers in baseball, but the bullpen is a sign of weakness for the Twins.

The Breakout

The problem up to this point in the career of Alexi Casilla hasn't been skill, it's been durability. He posted less than 200 at-bats in 2007 and only 385 in 2008, all due to injuries. He's healthy going into 2009 and there are a few reasons why this speedster batting near the top of the Twins lineup could breakout. Casilla raised his walk rate by more than 50% from 4.5% in 2007 to 7.5% in 2008. He also lowered his strikeout rate from 15.3% to 11.7%. Both of those statistics will lead to Casilla getting on base much more in 2009. That means his wheels can be put in motion more often. Casilla also raised his flyball rate from 21.6% to 33.5%. This could be a sign of a little bit of pop from his bat this season. Casilla batted .281 last year. He's got a good contact rate of 88% which could lead to an improved batting average. All this being said, Casilla could hit .290 and steal 25-35 bases. He might also hit 10 home runs in 2009. I'd call that a breakout, wouldn't you?

The Bust

Nick Blackburn stepped up in a big way last season for the Twins. The team needed lots of starting pitching help with all of the injuries and departures and Blackburn was a crucial stop-gap resolution. He won 11 games in 2008 and sported a 4.05 ERA. There is a problem though. Blackburn gave up 224 hits last season in only 193.1 innings. He wasn't terribly overpowering either with only 96 strikeouts and 39 walks. To make matters worse, batters hit .292 against him and he gave up more than a home run per nine innings. Blackburn is not a second year pitcher that you want to take a gamble on. He has probably topped out with 11 wins and his ERA is sure to spike in '09.

The Lineup
1. Denard Span, LF
2. Alexi Casilla, 2B
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Michael Cuddyer, RF
6. Jason Kubel, DH
7. Joe Crede / Brian Buscher / Brendan Harris, 3B
8. Nick Punto, SS
9. Carlos Gomez / Delmon Young, CF

The Rotation
1. Francisco Liriano
2. Scott Baker
3. Kevin Slowey
4. Glen Perkins
5. Nick Blackburn

The Bullpen
CL - Joe Nathan
SU - Jesse Crain
SU - Matt Guerrier / Luis Ayala

The Skinny
o. Joe Mauer is, once again, dealing with an injury. This time it's inflammation of one of the Sacroiliac joints (lower back pain). Nobody is sure how badly he's hurt, but he hasn't played in a spring game yet and his being in the starting lineup on Opening Day is in jeopardy.

o. The signing of Joe Crede turns the third base battle into a three-way race. While many think Crede is the instant favorite he's sure not doing anything special this spring to earn the job. He's batting .100 in 20 at-bats while Brian Buscher is nine for twenty with two doubles and a home run.

o. Not only does Carlos Gomez not know if he has an every-day job in the Twins outfield, he has no idea where he'll bat in the lineup. He's being used all over the batting order in an effort to try and find a spot where he helps the most. Gomez has loads of speed. If he can figure out how to get on base, therefore earning him every-day playing time, he could easily steal 40 bases. But, it's all about getting on base; something he hasn't been able to do with any regularity so far.

o. Francisco Liriano went 6-1 with a 2.74 ERA in his final 11 starts after his promotion from the minor leagues. If he can recover from Tommy John surgery, Liriano has all the tools to be a front of the rotation starter. If he starts 30 or more games in 2009, Liriano could easily win 15 games and strike out 200. So far this spring he's struck out 12 and only walked two in 12.1 innings.

Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Twins originally appeared on Fantasy Baseball Fanhouse on Sat, 14 Mar 2009 16:15:00 EST . Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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