Kansas City Royals pitcher Zach Greinke started the season and could virtually do no wrong. He won his first six starts and by the end of May he was 8-1 through 11 starts with a tiny 1.10 ERA. That's exactly when you should have traded him, at the highest point of his yearly value. I only say this with the benefit of hindsight. It's easy to look back and decide which moves should have been made.Since the beginning of June, Greinke has made 14 starts and has a record of 3-7. His ERA has ballooned to 2.44. His earned run average is still great, he's top-five in the league, but he's losing half of his starts. How's that happening with such a great ERA?
The easy answer is the Royals stink. And it's pretty much the correct answer as well. A lack of run support is killing Greinke. In his 14 starts since June 1st, the Royals have scored more then three runs only three times. That's not a recipe for success.
A closer look at a few telling statistics tell, however, that Greinke does deserve a little bit of the blame. If you look at his strikeout to walk ratio it's been progressively getting worse since June. In April his K:BB was 5.50 (44:8 K:BB). in May it was 11.00 (44:4 K:BB). The next three months saw the ratio fall to 4.30 (26:6), 3.90 (39:10), and 2.90 (29:10) respectively.
To make sense of these nonsensical numbers, Greinke isn't such a dominating force on the mound. He's striking out fewer hitters and walking many more. Sure, the Royals aren't helping him out, but he's dominating skill set is diminishing as well.
Bits From the Box Scores:
• Taking advantage of one of the mistakes made by Greinke on Wednesday was scorching hot rookie third baseman Gordon Beckham. He hit his seventh home run of the season and in the past month is batting .306 with four homers and 22 runs batted in. His fantasy value is skyrocketing in keeper leagues, but he's working his way into early top-ten arguments for fantasy third basemen heading into the 2010 season.
• A complete game shut-out on Wednesday by Jered Weaver brings his season record to 13-4. You can't argue with his success, but I'd love to see his strikeout totals normalize. Over his last few starts he's been fluctuating all over the board. He'll go through a short stretch where he has back-to-back games striking out nine batters or even eleven. But then he'll go the next few games striking out three or five. That kind of bouncing around screams to me that he's relying less on a superb skill set and more on outside forces, out of his control, like run support.
• Carlos Gonzalez has six home runs in his last eight games and a homer in each of his last four games. At this pace he'll add 30 more home runs to his dossier this season. Unlikely. But, calling CarGo the hottest thing since Megan Fox popped into popularity isn't all that crazy.
• Any idea who has the most stolen bases over the last month? It's Rajai Davis and he got another one on Wednesday night. He's stolen 14 in the last 30 days and has 26 on the year.
• Is anyone in Philadelphia still upset that the Phillies did not trade for Roy Halladay? Cliff Lee is 4-0 with an 0.82 ERA in four starts since joining the Phillies. On Wednesday he struck out 11 while walking none in a complete game, two-hit masterpiece.
• On the ugly side of Cliff Lee's win was Dan Haren, who gave up six earned runs on Wednesday. It was his third start in his last four where he's given up at least five earned runs.
• Jayson Werth blasted two home runs on Wednesday and is three away from the 30 mark. He's already hit more home runs in 2009 then ever before.
• How do you only give up six hits and strike out ten and still lose a game? Justin Verlander showed us how on Wednesday by making one mistake to Ichiro Suzuki, of all people, in the fifth inning. Ichiro's eighth on the season capped off a three-run inning that Verlander couldn't recover from.
• Jason Bay, Victor Martinez and David Ortiz all abused Toronto pitching on Wednesday by jacking homers, two off of Roy Halladay.
• Since the all-star break the Atlanta Braves have scored Jair Jurrjens 6.43 runs per game. On Wednesday the Braves went a bit overboard and scored 15 for the pride of Curacao. By the way, Jurrjens is 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA since the break.
• Mark this down as "You don't see this every day". Four Giants pitchers combined for a two-hit shutout of the Reds on Wednesday. Barry Zito took a no-hitter into the fifth.
• Chris Coghlan is batting .384 with four home runs and 18 RBI over the last 30 days but only owned in 24% of fantasy leagues. He's also showing off a 1.014 OPS.
• Michael Bourn stole two bases on Wednesday and has 46 for the season. He's also swinging a hot bat of late, batting .323 over the last month.
• Rich Harden threw seven scoreless innings on Wednesday only allowing one hit and striking out eight. It was his sixth quality start out of his last seven attempts.
• Mark Teixeira is good. Really, really good.
• Andre Ethier continued his torrid hitting on Wednesday by hitting his 25th home run. He's batting .372 with six home runs and a 1.151 OPS over the last month.
The Afflicted: The Texas Rangers place Eddie Guardado on the 15-day disabled list on Wednesday with left knee inflammation, his push-off leg. The move is retroactive to August 15th. Here's a little bit of "feel good" news made possible by an MLB injury. David Wright invited the Staten Island Little League World Series team to tour Citi Field once their tournament is over. Is there any chance that Dontrelle Willis can return to a major league roster this season? In a rehab start in Triple-A Toledo, Willis left the game in the second inning with pain in his right knee.
Lineup Lock Time: Cincinnati is the locale for Major League Baseball's first pitch on Thursday when they play San Francisco at 12:35 PM ET.
