Poppin' out the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.Heading into 2009, here's what we thought we knew about Rich Harden: Absolutely lights out stuff, but can't be counted on to stay healthy consistently. In 2008, he went 10-2 with a 2.07 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP and 181 strikeouts in 148 innings. Those are elite numbers on a per-start basis. The problem, of course, is that he only made 25 starts. In 2007, he had a 2.45 ERA, but only pitched 25 2/3 innings.
Until Monday night, 2009 had been quite surprising from the 27-year-old right-hander.
Sure, the strikeouts had been there, but the dominant stuff had not. Harden entered Monday night with a 4-4 record, 4.95 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. His arm has been supposedly healthy all season, but his velocity has been way down, which would explain how he's been much more hittable by opposition. Also, his walk rate was up, and he was working behind in far more counts than he's accustomed.
Monday night, though, we saw a glimmer of hope. Harden walked only 1 hitter, while striking out 9. He allowed a single run in 7 innings of work. The 9 hits are a tad bit troublesome, but only one was of the extra base variety. It's easy for naysayers to see his opponent (the stigmatized Pirates), but Pittsburgh had won four of their last five entering the game and their offense isn't bad at all. They are middle of the national league pack in many offensive categories and fourth in batting average.
Most importantly, Harden's fastball worked its way up to the mid-90s on several occasions. If things continue on this path, we're looking at the Harden we knew before this season. Translation: Get him active and have a backup plan for when he falls injured.
Bits From the Box Scores
- Nyjer Morgan's on a nice little tear. In his last 8 games, he's hitting .469 with a whopping (for him) 1.077 OPS. At 28, he's a bit old to be having his first breakout campaign, but he's never really been given a shot before. He's a good source of steals and runs who won't hurt your average in deep leagues.
- Gordon Beckham has all the tools to be an elite player. The White Sox obviously believe he's ready to learn at the major league level, otherwise they wouldn't be playing him. In the past four games, he's starting to "get it." He's 7 for his last 13 (.538). No extra base hits in the time-frame, but those will come. Do not forget about him in any league.
- Victor Martinez has never hit more than 25 home runs in a season and his career batting average is .300. Thus, we had to know he was going to cool off eventually. After another 0-fer Monday night, he's 3 for his last 31 (.097). He's not droppable by any means, and it's probably too late to sell him high. This is merely an evening out of the numbers for his early-season tear.
- Jon Lester is as locked in as anyone right now. In his last 6 starts, he's tossed 40 innings, allowing only 8 earned runs (1.80 ERA). He's struck out 52 and walked only 9. He is a fantasy ace, and will be for a long time.
- Ty Wigginton is 15 for his last 30. He's thrown in 2 home runs during the stretch and have walked more times than he's struck out. Ride him while he's hot in deep AL-Only leauges.
- Pat Burrell has been a very hot-and-cold guy throughout his career. Look at his first and second half splits for 2008 -- and then do the same for 2007. There's no rhyme or reason to it, but sometimes he gets really hot or really cold for a few months. Thus, when you see a home run on June 29 after a horrible first portion of the 2009 season, it's time to trade for him. Do it now.
- Good to see Roy Halladay back on the mound. It was a modest outing, but he's working his way back. The 7 strikeouts were a good sign he's feeling OK.
- The Fernando Nieve parade came to a screeching halt, didn't it? Still, that's only one outing and the Brewers offense is quite stout. If the Mets start getting their players back, Nieve is a good option for wins the rest of the way.
- Casey McGehee is giong to win the everyday second base job in Milwaukee sooner than later. After a grand slam, he's now hitting .336 with a .964 WHIP. Rickie who?
- Ricky Nolasco is back. Since returning from the minors, he's 3-1 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He's struck out 33 and walked only 5. Remember how much better he was down the stretch last season, too, so we may be looking at a similar run (98:12 K:BB ratio in second half last year). If, for some Godforesaken reason, he's still available, go get him now.
- Josh Willingham is scorching hot right now. He's been on an extended upswing, hitting .407 with a 1.185 OPS since May 25, but recently he's been out of his mind. In the Nationals' last 5 games, Willingham is 10 for 19 (.526) with 5 doubles. He could be pretty solid trade bait for the Nats, as they look to the future. Take a look in any format where you could use power in the outfield.
- Rough debut for 23-year-old Julio Borbon. He went hitless in 3 at-bats, striking out twice. He's shown good promise, especially as a prolific base-stealer, in the minors. Take a look in AL-Only leauges where you're desperate for speed.
- Juan Rivera's power surge continues. We told you about him last week, and we'll reiterate it now. Grab him if you want a burst of homers.
- Luke Hochevar made five starts in June, and four of them were quality starts. It would be nice if he fixed his brutal strikeout rate and high walk totals, but he's learning how to pitch in the majors. It's a good sign the 25-year-old former first-overall draft pick is going to pan out.
- Mark DeRosa is 0-for-7 as a Cardinal. Is it possible he still loves the Cubs and is sabotaging their rivals? (No. He's going to hit.)
- Looks like the Giants have found themselves a future right-fielder. Nate Schierholtz is out of his mind right now. He's 14 for his last 25 (.560) with a double and 2 home runs in that span. The 25-year-old is now hitting .322 on the season. In the minors, he showed decent-to-good home run power with great gap power (high doubles and triples). He can run a little bit and always hits for a high average. Plus, he was a bad ass in the Olympics. What's not to like about this guy?
- Ryan Sweeney is finding a good groove here in late June. He's hitting .464 since June 19. The 24-year-old has potential is a guy who won't hurt you in any category, though he won't be elite in any.
- Beginning on June 30 last season, Roy Oswalt went 11-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Low and behold, Oswalt has a 1.20 ERA in his last two starts now that we're in late June. He's struck out 16 and walked just 4 in these 15 innings. If you can still buy him "low," do it. He'll be an ace the rest of the way.
- Ubaldo Jimenez shouldn't have given up a hit to Randy Wolf. Still, he got kind of screwed in allowing those 2 runs. With runners on first and second base and Wolf at the plate, Jimenez was in the middle of his wind up when Wolf began holding his arms up as if he was calling time. Jimenez, again, shouldn't have stopped his throwing motion, but he did. Balk. Wolf ended up garnering a 2-RBI single. Otherwise, the night was a shutout for Jimenez. Hopefully he can keep his concentration in the future, even with odd circumstances.
- Andre Ethier's power is nothing we could have predicted. He hit 27 home runs in 1,391 at-bats in the minors. He hit 44 in his first three major leagues seasons, yet, here he sits, on pace for 31 bombs, soon to get Manny Ramirez back in the lineup. It's very possible, though, for someone to develop power at the major league level, especially when he was promoted at a young age and never had an extended stay at one minor league stop. Ethier has done so. Don't sell him. Hold.
The Afflicted: Kenshin Kawakami has been pushed back from today and won't pitch until Friday. He's no longer a two-start pitcher for the week. The injury, though, seems minor and shouldn't linger.
Down on the Farm: Clay Buchholz is wasting his time in the minors. After his latest outing in Triple-A, he's got a 1.90 ERA with 75 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings. The Red Sox have nowhere to put him due to their signings of John Smoltz and Brad Penny in the offseason.
Returning Soon: Ervin Santana is ready to get back on the major league hill. His return from injury earlier this season didn't go well, but the 26-year-old has incredible stuff when healthy. He's worth a flier in all leagues where he's available. Aramis Ramirez might begin a rehab assignment as early as Thursday, which would mean a return before the All-Star break. That's great news for any of his owners who managed to stay afloat without the Cubs' slugger. And, of course, Manny Ramirez is coming back Friday from his joke of a "rehab assignment." Those 50 games didn't seem to last that long, did they? (Of course, I don't own him ... I'm sure his owners feel differently)
Lineup Lock Time: 7:05 PM ET
