These Kids Are Alright is FanHouse's look at minor league prospects who could have a fantasy impact in the near future.Word on the street is Homer Bailey might be recalled to start for the Reds this Saturday, as there is a hole in their rotation -- and we're not talking about Micah Owings, who actually has a better ERA than Bronson Arroyo -- with Edinson Volquez on the disabled list.
Bailey, to me, typifies the gimme-now mindset of today's fantasy owners. It's hard to blame us, because everyone wants to grab the next big thing when they are called up and see immediate dividends (a la Ryan Braun, Tim Lincecum and Evan Longoria). Sometimes, though, it doesn't go as planned. With Bailey, it hasn't.
Bailey has made 18 major league starts in three different seasons. In those starts, he's been nothing short of brutal. His 4-8 record doesn't tell the story nearly as much as the 7.01 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. He's walked more guys than he's struck out. He's allowed a whopping 105 hits in only 86 innings. I mean, nothing has even been average.
Then, you look at his minor league stats. This season he's got a 2.71 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 89 2/3 innings. His WHIP is a respectable 1.27. Those aren't great numbers, and anyone looking at those and teaming them with his early major league track record might slap him with the dreaded "quadruple-A" label -- where a player is good enough to be successful against minor league competition but not good enough to be a major league player.
There are a few mitigating factors I'd like to point out:
1. He's freaking 23-years-old. Are we seriously giving up on guys in their early 20s now just because you wanted him to help your 2007 fantasy team and he didn't?
2. He's been scorching hot lately. His last five starts have been nothing short of staggering, the likes of which he's never done in the minors. The numbers from those five outings read: 4-0, 38 1/3 innings, 38 strikeouts, 7 walks, 2 earned runs, 0.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP.
3. This one goes hand-in-hand with the no. 2 entry on the list, because when Bailey was sent back to the minors after his horrifying major league start this season, he started working with a split-fingered fastball. Judging by the past five starts, it seems to be working. That will have an effect in terms of how hitters are able to approach him, but, more importantly, also on his psyche. It's entirely possible that Bailey had worked up a mental-block when it came to getting on that major league mound after so many rough outings. With a new pitch in his arsenal, he'll be able to bring a new swagger. Don't underestimate confidence in a game so full of mental edges like baseball. Look what adding a new pitch before last season did for Cliff Lee.
He's no Lee yet, but Bailey bears consideration in nearly all fantasy leagues where you have bench space. Watch that start Saturday -- assuming he gets it -- and see what he's got. He might just be (finally?) ready to take the next step in his career, now that he's armed with the splitter.
