Poppin' out the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.When you think of Chicago Cubs starting pitchers, you first think of Carlos Zambrano. Next is probably Rich Harden, especially in terms of sheer talent -- plus, the injury woes probably keep him fresh in your mind. After last season, Ryan Dempster should be hanging out in your baseball-knowledge-filled brain as well. The best Cubs' starter of 2009, though, has been Ted Lilly. After yet another quality start Sunday, the Cubs' left-hander is 7-4 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
Those are sparkling rate stats, especially from a guy who was the fourth member of his team's rotation drafted in nearly every fantasy league -- if he was drafted at all. The question at hand is: Can he keep it up? The emphatic answer from this currently-disgruntled Cubs fan is yes.
Last season, Lilly was awful in his first four starts. After that, though, he went 17-6 with a 3.58 ERA -- hardly pedestrian stats. This season, his third as a Cub, he's really finding his groove. With an average of 6 2/3 innings and only 99 pitches per start, this is the most efficient he's ever been in his career. He's throwing more strikes, which is evidenced in his career-best K/BB ratio, despite a lower strikeout rate. What we can take from those numbers is that Lilly, at age 33, is understanding what it means to being a pitcher -- as opposed to a thrower -- more than he ever has before.
Sure, he's benefiting from a .249 allowed BABIP, but that's not as ludicrous as it sounds, considering he sported a .266 figure in 2007 and .272 in 2008. He's pitching to contact because he trusts his defense and knows how to get hitters out now. Plus, he's working on top (meaning he's in counts with more strikes than balls most of the time), which is always an advantage to the pitcher.
If history is any indicator, we can expect the ERA to climb back a little bit. Still, it appears we're seeing a career year, and it's not out of line to expect a career-best ERA in the 3.40 range. With the wins and strikeout totals being solid, he's definitely worthy of being used in all fantasy leagues.
Bits From Around the League:
- J.J. Hardy was dropped to eighth in the batting order, and we're still waiting on his annual hot streak. It seems like it will never come, because things have gotten worse. He's hitting only .087 in the last 12 games. We know the two-year track record, though. The second you drop him, you're liable to see one of those eight home run weeks. Hopefully there's a bench where you can store him and then be ready to insert him at the first sign of life.
- On the flip-side, Corey Hart is coming around. He's 8-for-16 (.500, math majors) in his past five games with 6 runs, 1 double, 1 triple, 2 home runs, a steal and 7 RBI. Get him active and leave him there.
- Can someone get a heat check on Pablo Sandoval? In his last 11 games, he's hitting .463 with 5 home runs, 11 RBI, 9 runs, 2 doubles and a ridiculous 1.389 OPS. He's now hitting .332 on the season. He only has 8 total homers, but the power is coming as he adapts to major league pitching -- he's only 22 and has only 387 career plate appearances. We're talking stardom here.
- Good to see the 10 strikeouts for John Lackey, but allowing 10 hits was a bit troublesome as well. He's still getting things worked out, but he'll be back to "Big John" very soon, if the Ks are any indication.
- Scott Baker killed owners early in the season who waited out his injury, but he's in a good groove now. He's 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in his last 3 starts. During those starts, he's thrown 22 innings, striking out 23 and only walking 2. It's time to activate him in all leagues again.
- For now, let's considering Johan Santana's embarrassing outing the Bronx and aberration. He's still Johan.
- Brad Bergesen, the 23-year-old rookie for the Orioles, is now 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA in his past four starts. During that span, he's averaged 8 innings per start. He's only given up 22 hits in that time. Is this kid seriously for real? Well, he's going to see much tougher offenses in the AL East than the Braves, Mariners and Tigers, but still, he handled himself very well throughout the minors and opponents aren't getting incredibly lucky against him. Keep your eyes on him in mixed leagues and grab him in AL-Only formats.
- If you still believe in Dontrelle Willis, you should stop playing fantasy baseball.
- Seriously. Please read the above entry again.
- It's very possible Ben Zobrist just needed everyday playing time to show he was this good of a player. All of his ratio numbers are off the charts, though, -- BABIP, HR/fly ball, isolated power -- and that's usually a sign of numbers being normalized in the near future. Now might be the time to sell as part of a package. Possibly use him with a good pitcher for a star in return?
- Alberto Callaspo is still chugging along. Remember, we told you earlier why he would. Stick with him.
- Jay Bruce is now hitting only .213. His 15 home runs are nice, but that's with only 32 RBI and 33 runs. At some point, you have to provide more than just one category of help. I'd think about trading him, because he's still only 22. It's possible he's just not ready yet.
- Jason Hammel has won four straight decisions. In his last three starts, he's 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. In the 18 1/3 innings of those outings, he's struck out 15 and only walked 3. It's time to give the big man (he stands 6-foot-6) a look.
- Everyone root for the A's to lose so they have to trade Matt Holliday soon. We need him freed from fantasy exile.
- I guess I'll just throw my hands up in the air when it comes to Miguel Tejada. I call "Uncle." I give up. Whatever. (And, yes, I still think he's gonna absolutely suck in the second half)
- On the flip-side, I'm still sticking with Stephen Drew. He had a scorching second half last season. This June, he's hitting .346 with 2 home runs, 8 RBI, 7 runs and 6 doubles. Look for it to continue. Matter of fact, I'd gladly swap Tejada for Drew in any format right now.
Lineup Lock Time: When Wrigley sleeps all day, so do we. The first pitch Tuesday is 7:05 PM ET.
