Roto Rush: The Time to Trade Raul Ibanez Is Now, Not Later

Poppin' out the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.

I learned how to play fantasy sports 10 years ago from my stepdad, who's been playing it since the days when rotisserie baseball didn't even exist. Back when he was a teenager, it was called Strat-O-Matic, a simulation board game that seemed more laborious than fun to me. Then again, they also had fun flipping baseball cards instead of preserving them.

One of the first things he ever taught me about veteran players was the basic tenet of: "Look on the back of the baseball card." Sure, there are outliers, but seeing career statistics is comforting, and can often tell you a lot about a batter's peak performance.

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Raul Ibanez recently turned 37 years old. The most home runs he's ever hit in a season is 33 -- when he was with Seattle in 2006. He's never even reached 25 homers outside of that year.

So, while you may be gloating over having a first-round outfielder in Ibanez -- one with 21 homers, 58 RBI and a stout .322 batting average -- he was not projected to be a first-round outfielder.

Eventually, he will come back down to earth. Would you rather try to deal him when he does? Or when he's so scorching that many in your league will likely deal their struggling stars for him?

Ibanez has always been a streaky player throughout his career. But he's typically hit his power stride later in the season rather than the start of it.

Joe Posnanski wrote a great piece that broke down those past streaks. There have been six separate occasions where Ibanez tore up opposing pitching over a roughly 50-game stretch, including three separate times where he's hit 15 or more homers in that span.

Consider that he now plays his home games in a hitter's ballpark and this is the best lineup he's ever been a part of -- along with some other factors -- and it's not totally absurd to believe he's just on a ridiculous hot streak.

Ibanez is no spring chicken. If you want to bank that he's having a 2004 Adrian Beltre-type breakout at age 37, go right ahead. He could hit 48 homers, or he could regress to the back of the baseball card and hit about 38.

But one thing is for certain: he's not coming close to his projected 59. Deal him before he cools off.

Bits from the Box Scores:
• Big Papi finished? How about three homers in his last five games? If a fellow owner thinks this is just a temporary flash of power, make the deal. Ortiz is cheating a bit -- swinging earlier like Carlos Delgado -- now that his bat speed has diminished, but I still think he hits over 20 homers this season.

• In 2006, someone in my $300 entry-fee league dropped Jimmy Rollins after a slow start. Rollins had 16 homers, 52 RBI and a .298 average after the break that season. Rollins isn't going to hit 25-30 home runs like he used to, but this is a reminder to stay patient after seeing another one of Rollins' 1-for-4 showings. The average will improve, and so will the steals.

• Three great starts in a row for Ryan Dempster. A lot of owners have been frustrated by his up-and-down performance, but statistics don't always tell the whole story. Read this heartbreaking story about how Dempster has spent all season going back and forth to the hospital because his baby daughter is battling a disorder. ''I wouldn't wish the person I hate most in the world to go through that,'' Dempster told the Chicago Sun-Times. I'm sticking with him.

• First multi-home run game in Ross Gload's career. He's just receiving more at-bats while Jorge Cantu copes with dizzy spells, but Gload is someone to keep an eye on in NL-only leagues.

• Under the radar, Andrew Miller has been very solid since returning to the Florida rotation in mid-May. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of his last six starts, and he's striking out close to a batter per inning.

• There's no way a pitcher should go eight innings of two-hit ball with 12 strikeouts and no walks ... and get a no-decision. Port-o-potty luck for Javier Vazquez. He's averaging an insane 11 strikeouts per nine innings, yet Jason Marquis has twice as many wins as him. Perfect example of why wins can really suck as a fantasy baseball category.

• Two more RBI for Pirates third baseman Andy LaRoche. He's a three-category player, but he's an underrated pickup if you're one of the owners who have been shafted by Garrett Atkins' awful start. The way Ian Stewart is hitting, Atkins is the odd man out until a trade happens. Stewart has raised his average 50 points and just hit his fifth jack of June. Another option for Atkins owners is Joe Crede, who's hit seven homers since May 12.

• Jim Thome is just getting warmed up. He's blasted three homers in his last four games, and could top 30 homers for the fourth straight season.

• That's what we're talking about, Max Scherzer. One walk -- not five -- to go along with 7 2/3 shutout innings and six strikeouts. His command may be maddening sometimes, but he's worth sticking with all season.

• Russell Branyan has 10 more home runs than David Wright, folks. How about that? Branyan's power isn't fluky, either; only the batting average is.

• David Price's ERA is a 2.37. But don't get too cozy because that could change real fast if he keeps walking five batters per start. He still has a long ways to go in the command department.

The Afflicted: The Mets placed John Maine on the 15-day DL with shoulder weakness. "It's nothing serious," Maine said. "My shoulder is just fatigued. It's dead." The Rays finally activated DH Pat Burrell from the DL. Detroit placed Jeremy Bonderman on the DL since it's clear he needs more rehab as he recovers from surgery. Paul Konerko was given a cortisone shot for his ailing thumb and is day-to-day.

Down on the Farm: John Smoltz's final minor-league rehab start with Class AAA Pawtucket was postponed by rain. He should make his final appearance on Friday. It's a good time to snag Smoltz and place him in one of your DL spots, as he should be activated in late June. It's anyone's guess who will be bumped from the rotation when that happens. Oh, and Clay Buchholz has a 1.75 ERA down there. Nice dilemma to have. Smell a trade coming?

Saturday's Ace in the Hole: There are quite a few good choices during interleague play. Oakland left Josh Outman (4-0, 3.17 ERA) faces San Francisco. For deeper leagues, Jason Marquis (8-4, 3.98 ERA) gets the Mariners. For even deeper leagues, Kenshin Kawakami (3-6, 4.62 ERA) is a good pick vs. the Orioles.

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