Big Papi's Anguish Has Many Faces

I'd say the photo collection above accurately sums up David Ortiz's season so far. It hit rock bottom on Thursday as the Red Sox slugger (?) went 0-for-7 with three strikeouts, and left ... wait for it ... 12 men on base (Update: Ortiz was benched Friday night against the Mariners). On the Big Papi scale, this is a slump of appalling proportions. He's homer-less in his last 144 at-bats, one shy of his career-worst drought between 1998 and 2000. Is it time for fantasy owners to cut their losses with Ortiz?

First, we have to examine the bright side of things, with help of some advanced statistics from The Hardball Times. Despite the brutal batting average (.208), he's smacked 10 doubles, knocked in 15 runs and walked 20 times. His ground ball percentage (26.9) is significantly lower than past seasons, so it's not like he's just beating balls into the dirt. And his line drive percentage sits at 21.2 percent, which is higher than it's been since 2005.

One of the real culprits appears to be his IF/F rate, or the percentage of fly balls he's hitting that are infield flies. Over the past few years of his career, Ortiz's IF/F rate has stayed below 10 percent. This year, it's an abnormal 16.7 percent. We can look at this in two ways: either his bat speed has dropped off a cliff, or he's pressing and connecting too much the top half of the bat. I think it's a little bit of both.

Expecting the David Ortiz of 2007 to reappear is unrealistic. But it's also unrealistic to believe he's suddenly become worthless in the power department after hitting 23 jacks in 416 at-bats last year. Expletives and all, this is still a man with 20-plus homer pop in his bat. It's just been rather painful to watch him find it again.

Bits From the Box Scores:
• Encouraging season debut for Ervin Santana following his DL stint. Command was shaky, but he tossed five innings of three-run ball and struck out five. It'll get better as he progresses. John Lackey is also returning this weekend.

• Jimmy Rollins was back in the leadoff spot and went 1-for-5, dropping his batting average to .200. So much for that short-lived lineup experiment by Charlie Manuel. Obviously buy low on Rollins.

• If you're looking for solid middle relievers to help minimize your damage, the Dodgers are getting some great early efforts from R&R -- Ronald Belisario (3.05 ERA, 22 strikeouts) and Ramon Troncoso (1.99 ERA, 0.88 WHIP).

• First stolen base of the season for Marlins rookie Chris Coghlan. I think we'll see many more from him.

• Dave Bush's last three starts: 3.00 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 18:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 21 innings. I'm not a huge fan due to his high home run rate, but he's sitting on the waiver wire in too many leagues.

• Ryan Dempster's last three starts: 3.54 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 21:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 20 1/3 innings. The ERA should dip below 4.00 by the All-Star break.

• From Knox Bardeen's popular Twitter feed: "Wow. Verlander's last 4 starts: 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA. In 29 1/3 innings of work he's struck out 44 and given up only 16 hits." Yeah, and he was one of our five guys to win your league.

• Another home run for Chris Davis, 10 total in 117 at-bats. Strikeouts are still high, but he's batting .298 in May. As Matt Snyder said back in the beginning of April, "he most certainly does not suck."

• Over his last four games, the underrated Adrian Gonzalez has hit five out of the park, predictably all on the road. Eleven of his 14 homers this season have come in road games.

• Not predictably, the Cubs are getting big RBI production from 31-year-old Bobby Scales as a fill-in for Aramis Ramirez. He's shown 15-20 homer pop in the minors, so roll with him in NL-only leagues.

• Speedsters who are red hot this month: Michael Bourn (.389 average and seven swipes) and Willy Taveras (.393 and five).

• Speaking of speed to burn, the Mets stole a franchise-record seven bases against the Giants, including four from David Wright out of the fifth spot and even one from Gary Sheffield. There's a good chance the Mets stay active on the base paths with Carlos Delgado out of the lineup, and Sheffield should continue to get at-bats.

Weekend Aces in the Hole: For Saturday, Chicago's Sean Marshall (1-2, 4.06 ERA) faces the Astros and Arizona's Max Scherzer (0-3, 3.98 ERA) gets the Braves. On Sunday, Koji Uehara (2-3, 4.01 ERA) vs. the Royals and Mike Pelfrey (4-0, 4.89 ERA) vs. the Giants are both strong plays. I also like Armando Galarraga (3-3, 4.61 ERA) to bounce back against the A's.

Down on the Farm: Right-handed hurler Kris Medlen was smoking down in the minors with a 0.96 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 37 1/3 innings. Now the Braves are calling him up to start in place of Jo-Jo Reyes on Tuesday night. We've been harping a lot about Tommy Hanson, but Medlen is well worth snagging in NL-only leagues and very deep mixed ones.