Most starting pitchers who have been healthy thus far have made between two and three starts. It's still a small sample size, but we're starting to see some dominating trends from faces both familiar and not-so-well known.After scouring the statistics I came up with a list of starting pitchers who have pitched at least 19 innings, have an Earned Run Average below 3.00, and have a WHIP below 1.00. Anyone care to take a guess at home many are on this list?
Those of you who said 12 are superstars. And speaking of superstars, we're not going to talk about guys on this list like Johan Santana, Chad Billingsley, Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, Zach Greinke or Erik Bedard. They are all owned in more than 85% of fantasy leagues. We're also not going to spend time on Kyle Lohse or Joe Saunders. They are both owned in more than 71% of fantasy leagues. Give your waiver wire a quick look and if you find one of these guys available, consider acquisition.
Today I want to focus on four starting pitchers who are owned in less then 55% of fantasy leagues. These guys have stellar numbers so far and shouldn't be just sitting there on any waiver wire. But, before you go blindly jumping on each of these four, make sure their current numbers aren't just inflated by a hot streak or other statistical forces at play.
Paul Maholm, Pirates - Maholm has been one of the brightest stars in the National League through three starts, but he's only owned in 55% of Yahoo leagues. He's 2-0 with an 0.87 ERA and an 0.97 WHIP. He isn't fanning people like crazy with only six strikeouts in 20.2 innings and his six walks don't bode well for his strikeout to walk ratio, but it's hard to argue with the fact that hitters are batting just .197 against him. However, if you're looking for a knock against Maholm, take a look at his hit rate and fly ball tendencies. His hit rate is an extremely low 21.1%. He's also increased his line drive rate and his fly ball rate from last season; which should be leading to more damage then it is. When his hit rate normalizes those extra fly balls and line drives are going to turn into trouble. Until then, ride the Maholm train. Just get a seat nearest the door.
Kevin Millwood, Rangers - You could have expected Millwood to get some wins with the amazing run support the Rangers are going to give him this season.. But a 1-1 start with a 1.17 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP just wasn't in the cards. Through 23 innings of work he's struck out 14 while only walking four and hasn't seen success like this since 2002. He's walking more then a batter less per nine innings compared to last season and even while striking out fewer too, he's still having success. His hit rate is very low at 20.4% so expect some ERA and WHIP normalization. But, the hitters in this Texas lineup are going to post huge run totals all year. Millwood, and your fantasy team, could benefit from the win totals he'll rack up. Just don't expect a sub 2.00 ERA all season. He's currently owned in only 53% of Yahoo leagues but that number will rise with another quality start this week.
Edwin Jackson, Tigers - To say that Jackson has pitched better than expected thus far is an understatement. He's 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP. He also has a 13:5 strikeout to walk ratio in 21 innings. Jackson hasn't seen success like this in his young career. His strikeout to walk ratio had always been worse than this and he's never seen am ERA below 4.00, not to mention his current 2.14 ERA. The driving force to his early season success is most likely his minuscule 16.3% hit rate. It's true that Jackson's walk rate is much better then past season's, but when (not if) his hit rate normalizes Jackson is in danger of returning to the same 'ole Edwin Jackson we've seen over the past two years, which might be why he's only owned in 30% of Yahoo leagues.
Glen Perkins, Twins - The amazing Matt Snyder wrote about Perkins in today's version of the Roto Rush and to quote Snyder, Perkins is "straight dealing right now". He saw great success last season with a 12-4 record, but his ERA was a bit high at 4.41. It's nothing like the 1.50 ERA he's sporting now with a 0.83 WHIP. With the success he's seen in the past and the progress he's made in the off-season and Spring Training to learn how to walk fewer batters (his BB/9 is 1.50 this year compared to 2.32 in '08) this new and improved Perkins could be around for a while. His 22.3% hit rate shows us that his ERA might balloon some, but Perkins is a pitcher you might consider gambling on right now. He's only owned in 19% of Yahoo leagues and that figure should be higher.
