Last season, Vicente Padilla won 14 games and was a pleasant surprise to fantasy baseball owners who were able to take a chance on him. Many didn't have that luxury because of his 4.74 ERA, a reason many owners didn't pull the trigger on him in fantasy drafts last month. And that hesitation may have been a great thing.Padilla is 1-2 with a 9.64 ERA in three starts and hasn't lasted past the fifth inning yet. Now people are starting to ask questions about the oft-injured pitcher's velocity.
I was surprised Padilla didn't allow more than five runs on Sunday. His fastball was mostly at around 88 mph. He did it 92 once, but for the most part was not at his usual mid 90s range. It was the same thing in his previous start, when he couldn't get out of the fourth inning.
"I'm not sure what is going on because last year I was throwing fast early in the season instead of the way I'm doing it right now," Padilla said.Whatever the reason for Padilla's troubles in 2009, he's not pitching well enough to be on any fantasy roster right now. However, there are a few reason why this might change.
1. Padilla's strikeout rate and walk rate are extremely similar to last season's. Despite his velocity loss, he's still striking them out and walking them just like last season.
2. His hit rate is an astounding 41.3%. That number has to normalize back down towards 30% soon. When that happens, his ERA will drop right along with it.
3. His strand rate is a very poor 58.1%. When runners get on base, they are scoring at a huge rate. This number should get back towards normal too. It's insane that close to half the runners that get on base against Padilla eventually score.
4. He pitches for the Rangers. When these ratios normalize, you have to figure the lineup around him will score enough to keep him in games. This will lead to wins.
