Someone forgot to tell Erik Bedard and Travis Hafner that this isn't 2007. Or maybe it is?
I always love good redemption stories and the surprises they bring for fantasy owners. But through just one week of the season, looks can be deceiving ... or hints of something entirely palpable. The dilemma with rotisserie league outcasts like Bedard and Hafner is you're dealing with this nagging birdie in the back of your mind telling you this can't be real.
I participated in nine fantasy baseball drafts this year. In most of them, someone let out an audible sigh after taking a shot with Bedard or Hafner. So far, the reclamation project collector must be pretty happy with himself. Hafner now has three homers, almost surpassing his 2008 total, along with six RBI. Bedard fanned seven Athletics on Sunday and only allowed three hits in 8 1/3 sparking innings. He holds a 2.02 ERA through two games.
Bedard hurls from the mound with a warning tag attached to his shoulder, but there's no denying the early results. He's throwing all his pitches for strikes, working ahead in the count and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is stellar. You invest with the caveats that he probably won't give you a ton of innings or wins, but I'm a believer that he can be a steady No. 3 option for your staff.
What about the enigma nicknamed Pronk? Well, that all depends on the expectations. The bat speed from 2006 isn't there and he gets caught flailing awkwardly against lefties (.167 so far), yet he finally looks healthy again. And that means it's not a stretch to count on a season of 25 homers, 90 RBI and around a .270 average at this rate (upside of 30 and 100). Of course, you're stuck playing him at utility/DH even in Yahoo! leagues, but power comes in handy in any form.
Now if only Paul Konerko would show some more signs of life.
Bits From the Box Scores
• Two examples of "Really?" in the Texas-Detroit game: Kevin Millwood strikes out six and lowers his ERA to a minuscule 0.64 ERA. Catcher-eligible Brandon Inge smacks his fourth homer. Take that, Miguel! Obviously proceed with caution in both situations, but enjoy the ride while it lasts. Millwood had a 2.76 ERA in August 2008 with a 20:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His ERA the following month? 6.10. And while Inge's power is for real, you know the batting average will bottom out.
• I don't know if you'd necessarily call it out-dueling Johan, but that was Josh Johnson playing the role of fantasy ace for the second time. He's the real deal. Enjoy the projected 3.40 ERA , 15 wins and ample strikeouts. If you didn't get on the Johnson bandwagon, Chris Volstad is the less-sexy consolation prize.
• Pirates leadoff man Nyjer Morgan got caught stealing, though that was his third swipe attempt over his last two games. You should have him on the roster instead of bottom-of-the-order Michael Bourn. Oh, and Aaron Harang is back to form. I'm not discounting his terrific shutout just because it was against Pittsburgh.
• Don't scramble to pick up Rafael Soriano. He only got the save for the Braves because Mike Gonzalez had been used in the two previous games. Do scramble to pick up Carlos Marmol in the 10 percent of leagues he's left in; somehow-still-closer Kevin Gregg got plastered again by the Brew Crew.
• In the very near future, we're going to have to explore the possibility that Evan Longoria could hit 40 homers this season, and maybe even supplant David Wright in the hot corner ranks if he can put up 10 steals to boot.
• Keep a close eye on the progression of Orioles outfielder Adam Jones. He hit his fourth double of the season, but the homers haven't come yet. His plate discipline has already improved, and you can bet we'll see some very fine fantasy seasons in the youngster's future.
• White Sox second baseman Chris Getz is batting .176. Top prospect Gordon Beckham is laughing at his TiVo and dreaming of the days he finishes the season as Chicago's middle man. Keep him flagged on your list.
• There's nothing exciting about owning starters like Kyle Lohse and Mark Buehrle, both of whom had fine outings Sunday. But they'll throw strikes, get some wins, and manage an ERA around 4.00. Inning-eaters like these guys still have value at the back end of mixed-league rotation, despite the lack of strikeouts.
• Another homer for young Rockies outfielder Dexter Fowler. If you missed out on a Jordan Schafer snag, give Fowler a bench spot in deeper mixed leagues. He continues to bat leadoff and has decent power-speed upside.
• Just a friendly reminder: Don't go overboard. Have patience with a stud like Tim Lincecum. Exercise less patience with A's rookie Trevor Cahill (2.25 ERA, but eight walks)
• Speaking of outcasts, Kosuke Fukudome is quietly batting .409 with four RBI on the young season. Not a bad bench outfielder if you're sitting with a guy like Jason Kubel instead.
Run to the Wires For: Nyjer Morgan in deep mixed leagues if you need speed. Go for Arizona's Max Scherzer in shallow leagues if you need pitching (he returns this week), especially if you're one of the unlucky ones placing Brandon Webb on the DL. Kenshin Kawakami is a solid option in deeper leagues.
Down on the Farm: Tom Glavine left his rehab start for Double-A Mississippi because of shoulder discomfort. Jorge Campillo will likely be the Braves' rotation fill-in, but don't you dare forget about Tommy Hanson in the shuffle.
Lineup Lock Time: The earliest game is 1:05pm ET with the Tigers and White Sox.
Playing the Splits: Khalil Greene is batting .172 in 29 at-bats vs. Doug Davis. On the other hand, Albert Pujols crushes him. Derek Jeter is batting .143 in 28 at-bats vs. Scott Kazmir. Mark Teahen is batting .429 in 21 at-bats vs. Fausto Carmona.
Gut Feelings: Randy Johnson and Chad Billingsley put on a pitcher's duel in Los Angeles. Scott Kazmir struggles with his command vs. the Yankees. And Chris Davis breaks his slump, assuming he's still in the lineup (gulp).
Tuesday's Ace in the Hole: Marlins righty Chris Volstad (1-0, 1.80 ERA) at Atlanta. Toronto's Ricky Romero (1-0, 3.00 ERA) at Minnesota in deeper leagues.
