Fanhouse's own Matt Snyder has already discussed Spring Training stats and when they matter. Today I want to talk about a few players who are tearing it up this spring. The big question remains; will they be able to keep up the pace once the season begins?
Derek Lowe, Braves - Lowe has been given the honor of starting in the season opener for the Braves. In fact, he'll start both that game and the home opener. A lot of that has to do with his seniority, but his 2-0 spring with a 3.27 ERA didn't hurt either. What's been really special about Lowe this spring is his strikeout to walk ratio. In 22 innings he's struck out 24 batters and only walked two. That's a phenomenal ratio. It's a certainty that he won't keep that rate up all season, but what this shows is that Lowe is dominating hitters this spring and has close to pinpoint accuracy (read: control). Lowe's Opening Day history isn't great (he's 0-3 with 8.44 ERA in Opening Day starts) but fantasy GM's can feel good about owning this ground ball specialist. He's not known (most ground ball pitchers aren't) for a high strikeout rate. If his spring numbers translate into more strikeouts per innings pitched and Lowe keeps the ground ball magic going, he could prove to have great value.
Corey Hart, Brewers - Hart slumped last September, hitting .173 down the stretch. He also only had a .300 on-base percentage as he walked very little (4.2% walk rate) and struck out (17.8% strikeout rate) a lot. However, he's having a monster spring. He's hitting .400 with seven doubles and six home runs with three stolen bases, which is the good news. The bad news is he's struck out 13 times and only walked three times in 55 at-bats. That puts his strikeout rate at 23.6% and his walk rate at 5.4%. I like the fact that he's walking a bit more, even though three times doesn't seem like a lot. But, his increased strikeout rate is troubling. Hopefully his extra strikeouts are just a result of him "swinging for the fences" this spring. If that's the case, maybe it would be easier to accept the extra strikeouts because fantasy owners would get more home runs out of him. Let's just run with that theory. At the rate Hart is going, over 600 at-bats in 2009 he'd easily become a 30/30 producer.
Kevin Slowey, Twins - In 2008 Slowey proved that he could produce a very nice strikeout to walk ratio. His ratio was 5.125 as he struck out 123 batters and only walked 24 and won 12 games with a 3.99 ERA. This spring he's taken it up a notch. In five starts he's 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA. He also has struck out 20 batters in 20.1 innings while only walking one. Those are superb numbers. Take them in conjunction with the fact that in 2008 he lowered his walk rate and raised his strikeout rate and you can predict some very good fantasy results in 2009 from Slowey. In Slowey's final spring start he battled Albert Pujols and won, striking the slugger out with bases loaded.Expect a much better fantasy season from Slowey in 2009. But, let's not ask him to strike out Pujols with the bases loaded every time he faces him.
