Heading into Spring Training, the most unknown fantasy baseball values come in the form of positional battles. Let's face it, the entire "sport" of fantasy baseball is unknown, because no one has a crystal ball. Still, predicting output from an individual player is much more difficult when you don't know what his role will be. With that in mind, we're going to take a look at some of the pitchers who have recently either sewn up a spot in the starting rotation or are nearing that job. We won't be including those who were guaranteed a spot heading into camp.
Joba Chamberlain - Well, we figured he'd head to the new Yankee Stadium as their fifth starter, but there was always a possibility Ian Kennedy or Philip Hughes nudged Joba back to the 8th inning. Now, we know for certain he'll be a starter. Last season he had a 2.76 ERA in 12 starts, striking out 74 in 65 1/3 innings. That was with a midseason transition from the bullpen, too. As an added bonus, he has eligibility as a reliever in nearly all leagues. This guy should be owned in all leagues. Don't take him as your ace or SP2, but after that, he's very worthy of a pick.
Sean Marshall - Much like Joba, we kind of figured this is who would win the Cubs' fifth starting spot. It's official now, though. He also sports relief eligibility. Marshall has never been relied upon for long stretches in the rotation by the Cubs to this point in his young career. Now 26, he should benefit from being left alone on a normal rotation routine. If you play in a league where 12 wins, a 3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 145 strikeouts can help you, give Marshall a long look. Your only worry? The Cubs trade for Jake Peavy or Roy Halladay at the deadline.
Nick Adenhart - With Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar on the shelf to begin the season, there is a good chance the 22 year-old Adenhart will get a quick cup of coffee. Santana is hoping to only miss April, though, so you could only get Adenhart for three weeks. Considering how he got knocked around last season -- in the majors and triple-A -- and that he's only 22, I can't see him sticking with the big club just yet. I'd pass in all yearly formats. In deep keeper leagues, he's worth a look if you are eying 2010 or 2011.
Brett Anderson - Again, injuries lead to opportunities. Justin Duchscherer and Gio Gonzalez are injured, so Anderson could very well get a look. The 21 year-old only started six games in double-A last season. He was very impressive, but there is reason to question whether or not he's ready. This spring, though, he's fighting with all this might. He sports a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings. The only issue is his low strikeout totals. In deep AL-only keeper leagues he's worth a look. Everywhere else, you should just remember the name and watch the newswire.
Anthony Reyes - Technically he's the Indians' fourth starter, but the rotation spot was in question until this past week. He rocked a 1.82 ERA in six starts after being freed from St. Louis last season, and he's parlayed that into a nice spring. In a small sample size of 12 innings pitched, Reyes' ERA and WHIP are both sub-1.00. He's always shown a nice K/9 potential in the minors, and at age 27, now could be the time he translates it all to the majors.
Scott Lewis - Like Reyes, he beat out Aaron Laffey and has firmed up a rotation spot for 2009. Lewis went 4-0 in four starts last season, compiling an impressive 2.63 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The 25 year-old steadily worked his way through the minors, so the next logical step was to award him a rotation spot. He's not exactly setting the world afire this spring, though, as his ERA sits at 5.40 currently. He'll likely suffer growing pains as well. I'd avoid in nearly all formats.
Livan Hernandez - Tim Redding hasn't been able to nail down the final spot in the Mets' rotation, and they opted to not re-up with Pedro Martinez. The war of attrition has gone to the 34 year-old Hernandez (yes, seriously, even though it seems like he's 45). The Mets have a good offense and defense to support him. They now have a good bullpen. So there's a possibility for wins. That's where the good news ends. He only struck out 67 hitters in 180 innings last year. That's horrible. His WHIP and ERA were embarrassing. Chasing wins is never a good idea, so avoid him in all formats. Your WHIP and ERA don't deserve to be battered like that.
Jeff Niemann - David Price has been optioned to triple-A, which clears the path for the tall righty. He has good strikeout potential, but he's not near the prospect Price is. The difference here is that Niemann is out of options. With all the pitching depth in the Rays' system, I expect a trade of Niemann sometime in the June range -- at which point Price will join the rotation. For now, though, Niemann is a good candidate for wins and strikeouts and deep leagues.
Sidney Ponson - After his good showing in the World Baseball Classic, the Royals swooped in and signed the burly right-hander. There's a definite stigma attached to Ponson, as he's rumored to be a bit of a cancer in the locker room. Plus, he's only had an ERA below 4.00 once in his career. In fact, it's been over 5.00 six out of his 11 seasons. He's lost all ability to consistently strike hitters out as well. Ignore in nearly all formats.
Ricky Romero - He has potential to help you in strikeouts, but he'll destroy your WHIP in the process, as he has control issues. It doesn't appear the Blue Jays are primed for a lot of wins, either.
