Dan Haren has been awful this spring. Adam Jones is raking, as is Chris Shelton. Michael Bourn has been a completely worthless hitter. Of the above players, two have stat-lines that matter, and two have ones that don't.You see, judging spring training stat-lines in fantasy baseball can be helpful, but you don't want to get too caught up in it. After all, the games are meaningless. Most established veterans are just going through the motions in attempt to get their body ready for the real season. For them, the stat-lines are meaningless. Thus, I don't care that Haren has sucked thus far. I'd still draft him with confidence.
Let's take a deeper look at a when they matter, when they don't, and why.
When Spring Stats Matter
Up and Coming Players: When a young prospect or player who has only a year or two of major league experience enjoys a stellar spring, it's likely the sign that big things are on the horizon. There's a reason there has been hype about a player in the past, and a solid spring can springboard them into a successful April. This is where Adam Jones fits. We already liked him to come through with a breakout season, but now I'm even more confident about said prognostication. Others on this list: Brandon Wood, Kendry Morales, Pablo Sandoval, Billy Butler, Adam Lind, Ryan Sweeney, Travis Snider and Tommy Hanson.
On the other hand, if a team is hoping a certain player will bust out this year, and he's having a poor spring, that's a bad sign. It could be he's not quite ready, or it could be that he'll never be ready. Michael Bourn is an atrocious hitter this spring, so the Astros can't be happy about that. Others in this situation: Dallas McPherson, Andrew Miller (though I still like him eventually), Mark Reynolds when it comes to his strikeout problem, and Jeff Clement.
Bounce-Back Players: Maybe the player was once a huge prospect and hasn't panned out, or maybe he's just had an off-year or two. A good spring can be the sign the proverbial worm is starting to turn. Knox Bardeen has already discussed the progress being made by Jeff Francoeur. Delmon Young and Nelson Cruz are both players who haven't fared nearly as well in the majors as they could have. With Young, there's enormous hype. With Cruz, he's been a stud in the minors and never replicated them in the majors for an extended stretch. Still, we know both have talent, and they are each having a quality spring. Anthony Reyes came up with high expectations and fell apart, but his change of scenery helped last season, and he's parlayed that into a solid spring.
Again, though, those needing bounce-back campaigns who put up awful spring numbers could simply be done. Matt Clement, Barry Zito and Dontrelle Willis definitely count here.
Trying to Get Healthy: If a veteran player has sat out extended time in the past few years or is hurrying back to play on Opening Day, good spring stats are a sign he's ready. Chase Utley, Chris Ray and Chris Carpenter are showing real signs of being ready to go. Francisco Liriano went through growing pains last season, but he's now showing he's good to go.
Winning a Starting Job: Players in competition for a starting job who stepped up in the spring means they really want the job. They'll also really want to keep it. Don't underestimate motivation. It is a serious part of the game that numbers cannot bear out. Sean Marshall has come out and mowed down opposition all spring while locking down the Cubs' fifth rotation spot. Jason Motte has been stellar, while Chris Perez has been bad, which could clear up things at the back end of the Cardinals bullpen. Chris Dickerson has been sparkling for the Reds, in his attempt to win the left field job. Brett Gardner is majorly outshining Melky Cabrera in the Yankees' center field fight. This all matters.
When Spring Stats Don't Matter
Healthy, Established Veterans: Grady Sizemore is mashing, while Brandon Webb is not throwing well. Randy Johnson is on fire, while Haren is not. Pat Burrell has been an on-base machine, and Torii Hunter can't get on to save his life. What do all these guys have in common? My indifference toward their respective springs. We know what to expect from these guys, and I couldn't care less about their spring production. Some others having bad springs I don't care about: John Lackey, Matt Cain, Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Cordero, CC Sabathia.
Veterans With a Known Ceiling: As opposed to a "bounce-back," these are players who we know don't have fantasy stud inside them -- at least not for an extended period of time. Both Russell Branyan and Chris Shelton are going nuts this spring. Please. There is nothing you could say to convince me either player is ownable in fantasy -- with the possible exception of desperately needing home runs from Branyan in the deepest AL-only leagues. Others on this list: Matt Diaz, David Eckstein, Mike Jacobs (he's usable, but not this good).
