Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over. Meet the...
Most average team in the league. It's weird, because there don't seem to be many real weaknesses on team -- but can you really find a bunch of strengths? I hate the term "very average," but this team is pretty close to the mean across the board. As you scroll through ADP charts, you'll find the A's aren't often towards the top of the lists, but they are definitely there. As I said, average.
The Breakout
This is a really vanilla team here in terms of expectations versus value. There aren't really any great breakout picks. A late, hidden gem in most drafts, however, is Dana Eveland. He's not even going in the top 100 starting pitchers on MDC's latest ADP report. Barry Zito and Rich Hill are, though. C'mon.
Eveland is a 25 year-old who just went through his first full season as a starting pitcher in the majors. The experience gained will be valuable as he moves forward and establishes himself as a quality starter. He actually had a very nice first half of the season, compiling a 3.34 ERA through his first 16 outings. The rest of the way, however, was disastrous (5.70 ERA in last 13 trips). He could have broken down, having thrown a career high in innings, or it's possible he wasn't making adjustments as fast as the hitters facing him. Either way, the experience will be taken as a growing experience.
In the minors, Eveland's highest ERA for a single season was 2.74. He also had a much higher strikeout rate in the minors (nearly one per inning), so he should improve upon the poor showing last year (118 in 168 innings). Control and command will be important early on. Eveland shouldn't be drafted in mixed leagues, but if you notice a few strong outings accompanied by high strikeouts and low walks, it's time to jump on board. He's a SP3 in mixed leagues down the road, and it's conceivable that happens this year.
The Bust
This is going to look like we really despise Matt Holliday, but he's the only choice here. We've already covered him in the draft kit, but he is still just going far too high. I can't justify him being taken over Manny Ramirez, B.J. Upton, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, or Carlos Lee -- yet that is the list of outfielders going after him.
The Lineup
1. Mark Ellis, 2B
2. Orlando Cabrera, SS
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Jason Giambi, DH
5. Jack Cust, RF
6. Daric Barton, 1B
7. Bobby Crosby / Nomar Garciaparra, 3B
8. Kurt Suzuki, C
9. Ryan Sweeney, CF
There's a ton of moving and shaking that could happen here. Eric Chavez would likely bat fifth or sixth and play third base if he ever gets healthy. If they would rather have Travis Buck in the lineup than Cust or Barton, he could play right field and Giambi could play first base. Sweeney, Ellis, and Cabrera could all play musical chairs in the batting order as well.
The Rotation
1. Justin Duchscherer
2. Dana Eveland
3. Sean Gallagher
4. Gio Gonzalez
5. Josh Outman / Dallas Braden
It's entirely possible, actually, that Braden and Outman both squeeze Gio out of the rotation.
The Bullpen
CL - Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler
The Skinny
• As I said above, it's a pretty vanilla team. There aren't many guys undervalued, but there aren't many overvalued either. You know to avoid Holliday, you know Giambi's going to be bombs at the expense of average, and you know the closers are both solid -- yet splitting time.
• If you cover yourself with high-strikeout guys in the early rounds, Duchscherer is a solid option to help bring down that ERA and WHIP. His K-rate is really low, but he put up a 2.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP last season, his first as a starter. Now that he's made the transition he'll be more comfortable, and you can expect those numbers to stay in the same ballpark.
• Devine and Ziegler are both really good closing options after the full-timers have flown off the board far earlier. They should both garner somewhere in the range of 20 saves with really good rate stats. Devine holds more value due to a much higher strikeout rate.
• Sweeney has a chance to take a big step forward in 2009. He got a chance to accrue over 400 plate appearances in his first season in Oakland, and he displayed good promise. He doesn't really have star potential, but there's a chance you see a .300 average with more than 10 steals and home runs. He should be a good value pick late in AL-only drafts.
• It's true that Suzuki is still pretty young -- 25 -- but he's never shown the ability to be an offensive star.
• Finally, Gio Gonzalez has star potential down the road, but he's still not guaranteed a rotation spot. He can be stellar in all four starting pitching categories, especially in this ballpark. If he gets a rotation spot, take heed in deeper leagues. If he gets sent down, pay attention to his progress in the minors.
