Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over. Meet the...
Team who someone predicted would win the World Series last year. Seriously. When you stop laughing, you can check out the link (he's the top one listed -- though when you see his other atrocious picks you won't be surprised). Was I any better? Glad you asked. I actually took Mr. Downey to task before Opening Day. You can check the rest of my stuff if you wish, as there were some misses in there.
Anyway, it's safe to say expectations are a slight bit lower heading into '08.
The Breakout(s)
Jose Lopez had his breakout season last year, but he continues to fly under the radar. He's currently going 152 overall (using MDC's ADP), which is a whopping 72 picks behind Robinson Cano. That's six rounds in a 12-team league. There's no way the gap between the two should be that large.
Lopez is still only 25 years-old, and showed drastic improvement from 2007 to 2008. He has the innate talent to continue this growth into a very solid major league hitter. It's reasonable to expect .300 with 20 home runs, 95 RBI, 85 runs, and 10 steals.
If you want someone a little less obvious, Wladimir Balentien is a deep league option. The 24 year-old has 30 home run/20 steal potential down the road. He won't even sniff those numbers this season, but there will come a time the Mariners have to just let him adapt at the big league level. Deep AL-only leaguers, take note.
The Bust?
There really aren't guys being overvalued on this team. It's a pretty equal mix of being maligned and buried up in the northwest corner of our country. There are plenty of stay-away guys here, but none that jump out as being incredibly overvalued.
But, since I have to pick one, I'll go with Kenji Johjima. He's about to fully lose his job to a young up-and-comer, and he's still going to high in drafts. Yeah, it's only 20th among catcher's ADP, but I see Yadier Molina, John Baker, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Chris Snyder, and Taylor Teagarden behind him. Whether it's playing time or upside, there's no reason to draft Johjima over any of those guys.
The Lineup
1. Ichiro Suzuki, RF
2. Jose Lopez, 2B
3. Adrian Beltre, 3B
4. Ken Griffey, DH
5. Russell Branyan / Mike Sweeney, 1B
6. Franklin Gutierrez, CF
7. Kenji Johjima / Jeff Clement, C
8. Wladimir Balentien, LF
9. Yuniesky Betancourt, SS
They really need to teach someone like Junior, Johjima, or Clement to play first base. Wow, that's ugly. Newly acquired Ronny Cedeno will accrue at-bats all over the infield. Endy Chavez will be in the outfield mix.
The Rotation
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Erik Bedard
3. Jarrod Washburn
4. Carlos Silva
5. Brandon Morrow
Garrett Olson and Ryan Roland-Smith will also figure into the mix. Too bad they can't just dump those absurd contracts of Washburn and Silva in favor of a youth movement.
The Bullpen
CL? - Mark Lowe
SU - Miguel Batista
SU - Tyler Walker
SU - David Aardsma
Eventual closer - Chad Cordero
Needless to say, you want no part of this mess, as I said in my Always Be Closing entry.
The Skinny
• In shallow leagues, you won't be seeing many Mariners fly off the board. In a 12-team mixed league with a normal-sized roster, only Ichiro, Lopez, Beltre, King Felix, and Bedard should be drafted. I could see Clement as a last-round catching gamble in those as well. Overall, I'd feel a lot better about this team if they had an Adam Dunn/Manny Ramirez type power hitter in the middle of the order. There's just no protection for a nice top three in the batting order.
• I did love Morrow earlier, but now he's having some arm issues. That's scary in a guy this young who throws so hard. If he's totally healthy, I could recommend him in mixed leagues. He's got good enough stuff to stick as a high-quality starter.
• I've already discussed the value that can be found in Beltre and Betancourt. I also already discussed my thoughts on Felix Hernandez.
• Gutierrez has flashed 20/20 potential in the minors, but never really came into full-time at-bats in Cleveland. Assuming the Mariners leave him alone in center-field, he's got the chance to make an impact in AL-only leagues. He'll need a year of growth before the big payoff comes in 2010, though.
• Do not draft Washburn or Silva. In any league. Please.
• Finally, I could see Cordero paying dividends in the second half of the season. He's a good closer who is battling back from injury. We saw B.J. Ryan rush back last season and put up decent numbers. Just keep him in mind in large AL-only roto leagues. He could be a very cheap source of 10-15 saves.
