Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over. Meet the...
Most disappointing team of 2008. This goes for real and for fantasy. Nearly the entire team was a massive bust last year -- I said nearly, because the man in the picture to the right was immune in fantasy -- as the team finished in last place. They've made some changes, and the players coming back need to just play better.
The Breakout
You could say the Rays gave up on Edwin Jackson too early, but that would be ignoring their ample supply of starting pitching. They didn't give up on him, they simply didn't need him. He'll flourish now that he has a definite rotation spot. You could argue he deserves it, after suffering through a tremendous amount of lumps at the major league level. He's only 25 years-old, but he's already logged 106 career appearances. For the most part, he got beat up until last season. In 2008, though, he went 14-11 with a 4.42 ERA. He still has control issues (77 walks in 183 1/3 innings last year), but his stuff is good enough to evolve into a very solid fantasy pitcher. He definitely has the power, and he's had ample time to learn how to pitch properly with it.
It's time to see Jackson flash an ERA close to 4.00, and to strikeout close to 150 hitters. You'll get good value on him in AL-Only leagues.
The Bust
Armando Galarraga was a huge surprise last year. There's a reason for that. His track record prior to 2008 was awful. He spent 2001-2006 bumping around in the low levels of the minors while never excelling. In '07 he split his time between double-A and triple-A, but he only went 11-8 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. So there was nothing in his history to indicate a 13-7 record (with a terrible team, too), to go with a really nice 3.73 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The weird part was that 26 years-old is pretty late to just all of a sudden become a quality pitcher (remember, we're including the minors).
In fact, those numbers were too good to be true. His allowed BABIP was a minuscule .243, which means he was incredibly fortunate in terms of hits and runs allowed. Generally speaking, his ERA and WHIP should have been worse, and will be this year. He also probably benefitted from facing competition unfamiliar with him. He already started coming back to Earth with an atrocious September, where he gave up 20 earned runs in only 25 1/3 innings (that's a 7.11 ERA).
The Lineup
1. Curtis Granderson, CF
2. Placido Polanco, 2B
3. Magglio Ordonez, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Carlos Guillen, LF
6. Gary Sheffield, DH
7. Gerald Laird, C
8. Brandon Inge, 3B
9. Adam Everett, SS
The Rotation
1. Justin Verlander
2. Jeremy Bonderman
3. Armando Galarraga
4. Edwin Jackson
5. Johnny Wholestaff*
* The smart money is on Nate Robertson, but Zach Miner is also in the mix. Dontrelle Willis could conceivably win the job, but I have zero confidence in his ability to get meaningful outs. Keep an eye on Rick Porcello. We'll discuss him below.
The Bullpen
CL - Brandon Lyon
SU - Fernando Rodney
SU - Joel Zumaya
The Skinny
• They have plenty of talent, but there are many question marks who need to rebound from sub-par seasons. To me, there is only one sure thing who is not overrated.
It is Miguel Cabrera. I'm not sure how it happened, but he flew under the radar while leading the American League in home runs (37). He also hit .292 and drove in 127 runs. The homers and RBI were career highs. Cabrera is going to turn just 26 years-old a few weeks into the season. He's gone through the one-year adjustment period to the American League -- and put up those sick numbers above. Needless to say, do not let him fall far.
• Porcello is a phenom. There's talk of him breaking camp as the five starter, due to his unreal impact early in Spring Training, but he's probably going to start the season in the minors. It's worth keeping an eye on not only his progress, but how the Tigers' rotation is faring as a whole. They may call him up before June if the timing is right.
• Guillen should be in line for a bounce-back season, but he's not going to hold great value anymore. He'll only be eligible in most leagues at third base or outfield (where he'll play this year). He doesn't run much, and his power isn't big enough to justify mid-round picks.
• With Bonderman, it's all about where you get him. If you plan to use a bench spot on him very late in the draft -- perhaps even the last round -- you can justify it. He has enough talent, and he's still young enough (26) to pay dividends. He's going awfully late in drafts, but he's still ahead of some guys I'd rather have at this point -- like Anibal Sanchez and Gio Gonzalez.
• Granderson is overrated in 5X5 formats. There's no way to phrase it more simply. I don't know if it's because he's small and leads off, but he's not a big-time base-stealer. He's swiped only 47 career bases in 747 times on base. As an outfielder, the 20 home runs he's going to hit aren't overly attractive either. Yet he's sitting there 18th on an outfield ADP chart. Johnny Damon does similar things, and he's going 34th on the same list.
• Polanco is a cheap option at second base who can give you more than five home runs and steals while scoring runs and providing a good average.
• Finally, I'm avoiding the bullpen. There just isn't enough there without a huge gamble to your ERA and WHIP.
