Thursday we took a look at undervalued catchers. It seems like a logical progression to take a look at first basemen today.
When it comes to finding value when drafting this position, a few interesting names pop up. Believe it or not, I think Mark Teixeira is undervalued with an ADP of 12.60. Grabbing him with the 13th pick in a fantasy draft would make most people happy, and I'm not sure that he won't outperform Miguel Cabrera, who's a solid first-rounder with an ADP of 7.26. But, the swing from Teixeira to Cabrera isn't enough to "officially" place Teixeira on this list. Just know that if you walk up to me and tell me you got "Big Teix" in the second round, I'm going to pat you on the back.
Adrian Gonzalez is another first baseman in the boat with Teixeira. His current ADP is 35.66 which places him right at the tail end of the third round. Gonzalez is headed into his 27-year-old year, and a lot of experts feel this is the year to breakout. Gonzalez is already near his ceiling, but I could safely see him hitting 32 to 36 home runs and driving in 115 to 120. Those are better power numbers than Justin Morneau who has an ADP of 20.56. Gonzalez just won't hit for the average that Morneau will. Gonzalez also will not make this list, but I like him at the end of the third round, and is a steal in the fourth.
So, who "officially" is on the list?
Joey Votto, Reds - Votto is currently being selected in the seventh round (81.42 ADP) of fantasy drafts. He's being taken after first basemen like Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena, both of whom I feel Votto will outperform. He blasted 24 home runs last year while hitting .297, but you saw some serious growth in the second half of 2008. He started making better contact with the ball, therefore bringing his batting average up 34 points. He also started hitting more fly balls. It wasn't a dramatic increase, but the little bit shows that the 25-year-old still has some power to grow into. Going into 2009, I would expect to see Votto hit above .300. I'd also expect him to surpass his home run total from last season, but not quite reach the 30 home run plateau just yet. But, those numbers combined with the upside he brings to the table, mean that grabbing Votto in the seventh round is a big-time bargain.
Adam LaRoche, Pirates - With the month-to-month and first-half to second-half swings that LaRoche goes through, I would not touch him with a ten-foot pole if I were a fantasy GM in a head-to-head league. But, all of you rotisserie GM's should seriously take a look at him in the 24th round with an ADP of 284.00. When the dust settles, LaRoche should finish the year with a .275 batting average, 25 home runs and 90 RBI. Do you know whose stats those remind me of? To start with, those numbers look a lot like the numbers of Paul Konerko. And LaRoche will have a superior batting average to Konerko. But Konerko is being selected in the 15th round with an ADP of 169.26. Those numbers are also similar to Jorge Cantu's who has an ADP of 149.93 (13th round). Comparing those three players, I can't see why anyone wouldn't wait and draft LaRoche much later in the draft. I may want to grab a much more front-line first baseman early and then use LaRoche as a corner infielder or a utility guy. But, either way, Adam LaRoche is very undervalued at an average draft position of 284.00.
