By now, fantasy players have probably already heard the big news -- that Alex Rodriguez will be missing at least the first month of the season. Needless to say, this is a bombshell in fantasy baseball. Hopefully you haven't drafted or auctioned yet. If you have, hopefully you were fortunate enough to not land A-Rod. Obviously he'll still be helpful, but not at the price you paid when everyone thought he was healthy. Moving forward, though, let's try to get a handle on his value -- as things have been significantly altered in one fell swoop.
First, we have to look at the main subject -- Mr. A-Rod. We actually have a very reliable gauge for what we can expect. He missed 24 games last season. It sounds like he could miss about 30 in 2009. The lineup around him figures to be much better this season, and I still like a mean streak propelling him to a big season. Thus, expecting a .315 average with 35 homers, 110 RBI and 100 runs is pretty reasonable. The steals are probably the area where he won't do much damage. He's having his hip operated upon, and the Yankees have him slotted in the middle of a power lineup. Projecting 10 steals is the right amount.
Keep in mind, though, that he'll have to work his way back into playing shape and that you'll have to spend a relatively high pick on him -- in addition to needing another third baseman to play the first five weeks of the season. This means we should be a bit more conservative when predicting his numbers. In my view, it's best to expect .300/30/90/90/10.
Now, let's examine the fallout for everyone else. Looking at the above projected numbers, he should be slotted right with Aramis Ramirez. In fact, I'd place him behind Ramirez. There is now a huge gap between the top two picks -- David Wright and Evan Longoria -- making Wright a bona fide candidate for the number one overall pick. The next tier is now comprised of Longoria, Ramirez, A-Rod and Kevin Youkilis.
Finally, if you do take A-Rod, it would behoove you to draft a third baseman with positional flexibility (like Aubrey Huff, Chris Davis or Mark DeRosa) or a traditional hot starter (like Mark Reynolds), to fill in for the first five weeks of the season. Perhaps doing something like picking DeRosa with notoriously hot first-half man Dan Uggla would do the trick. You could sit through the traditional month and a half of all-world Uggla, and then trade him at sky-high value -- sliding DeRosa to second and enjoying A-Rod at third.
It's time to get creative. One of the best fantasy players in the league is going to have a shortened season. It changes everything.
