New Studs on the Block takes a look at the next potential stars of the fantasy baseball season.One thing I've noticed in fantasy baseball in recent years is the way people go overboard hyping youngsters (see Wieters, Matt). In turn, if these guys don't turn out quite as exciting as we thought they'd be, they are thrown on the scrap heap by frustrated owners. As we saw from Cliff Lee, Carlos Quentin, and Edinson Volquez last season, you should never just give up on a guy with talent.
With this in mind, my "new studs" may not feel so new, per se ... but they will be the ones who finally pay dividends to patient fantasy owners.
Delmon Young, OF, Twins - Two years ago, everyone wanted him. Now, it's like he has the bubonic plague. For some perspective, we need to step back and realize he made his major league debut at age 20. He's only 23 now, but he's had 1,346 major league at-bats. He's also reportedly added 15 pounds of muscle in the offseason, in addition to tweaking his swing in an attempt to eliminate the excessive amount of weak grounders. These are things we should like hearing. He's got a work ethic, and we already knew he had enough talent to be drafted first overall by the Rays -- who scout well.
Here's what else we know: He flashed 30-30 potential in the minors while always hitting well above .300. He wasn't even of drinking age yet when this was happening. His understanding of the strike zone improved last season as he adapted to a new home. There is simply too much talent here to dismiss based upon two somewhat disappointing fantasy seasons from a man this talented -- and I'll say again that he's only 23.
On the most current ADP charts, he's being drafted behind Luke Scott, Ryan Church, Juan Pierre, and Elijah Dukes. I can't condone this. It's hard enough to see it and not scream. Young is ready to bust through, so everyone needs to get over their disappointment from the past few seasons concerning him.
Matt Cain, SP, Giants - A 15-30 record in the past two years won't endear you to many fantasy owners. While the astute owners know it's not his fault, there still isn't enough of a movement to support this young fireballer. He's only 24 years-old, and he's made 104 career starts. He pitches in a really favorable pitcher's park, and he's never had an ERA below the league average. You're gonna get strikeouts as well.
His ADP (currently 28 in starting pitchers) is hardly worrisome, but I'm not doing a column on perceived sleepers. The issue at hand is finding a new stud, and Cain hasn't necessarily been a stud in the past two years. That, my friends, is over. He's ready to join the elite. He's ready to stand side-by-side with Tim Lincecum as one of the best one-two punches in baseball.
Are you ready for 15 wins, 200 K, and a 3.25 ERA? If so, Cain's your man.
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Reds - If we could cherry-pick Encarnacion's career highs in the five categories, we'd have quite the underrated fantasy player. A .289 average with 26 homers, 76 RBI, eight steals, and 75 runs is pretty nice production for a late third base pick. The problem is that he's been so fickle we don't know what to count on.
On the flip-side, though, he's only 26 years-old. The potential we've seen is that of a man who can eventually hit .300 with 30 home runs. He's grown more durable and is still learning the strike zone after 1,625 major league at-bats. Plus, he plays in a really favorable hitter's park. The lineup around him is pretty balanced, so the runs and RBI should be available as he improves his stroke.
I'm not quite as bullish on Encarnacion as the others on this list, but he's shown enough potential prior to the age of 26 for us to believe there's more in there.
Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners - It would be easy to give up on King Felix, especially if you owned him in any of the past three seasons. You were waiting for a reincarnation of Dwight Gooden, and instead received Ted Lilly. Again, this is why mentality is so huge in fantasy baseball. You have to be above these negative thoughts because this guy is only going to be 23 years-old this season. His stuff is as good as anyone's ... he just needs to channel it properly. We've seen it in spurts, like the one-hitter in Fenway Park, but we've also seen inconsistency and futility, at times.
Just remember that we've seen the hit-rate go down, the ERA improve, and the strikeout rate improve, between 2007 and 2008. The control, last season, was an issue, but he's young enough to fix this.
I know the Mariners suck, but I'm expecting a banner year from the man formerly glossed King. With natural progression in ERA, I've got it around 3.25 for 2009. Also like Cain, he'll strike out close to 200 while winning 15. So, yeah, he's a stud. A new one, just a few years later than everyone thought.
Carlos Marmol, RP, Cubs - Ok, you got me. Not only is this a homer pick, but he doesn't fit with the theme. People know Marmol, he wasn't overhyped, and he's getting plenty of love this preseason. I just don't want you to sleep on him (plus, I'm wearing his jersey right now, so it would be weird to not jock him at least a little). This alleged closer competition on Spring Training is a dog-and-pony show from Lou Pinella. He knows this kid is a phenom who can possibly become the next Mariano Rivera. There, I said it.
Those who doubt the ability on Marmol don't watch games. They haven't seen the way his slider makes opposing hitters nearly break their back. They haven't seen how he can turn it up for a 98 mile-per-hour fastball on the next pitch. He struck out 114 batters in only 87 1/3 innings last year. That's a lot of missed bats.
He's currently sitting behind Jonathan Broxton, B.J. Ryan, Jose Valverde, and Brian Fuentes in ADP. That's a mistake. He's better than these guys, and it ain't close. Let others draft those guys while you latch onto the best value closer in fantasy baseball.
