Once we stumble into the first few weeks of fantasy draft season, we have the luxury of trolling through some average draft position charts (ADP, henceforth). One of the problems is that most of the early-to-mid February drafting is being done by hypothetical fantasy fanatics, so there aren't a ton of skewed averages. Of course, recently-retired Jeff Kent has found a way to get drafted in 1.6 percent of the leagues on Mock Draft Central (MDC, henceforth), so they're worth a look. We'll use the ADP per position* on MDC for the rest of our analysis here. Most of the guys listed are not to be targeted in shallow to medium-sized leagues, as they are later-round steals for the deepest of fantasy leagues.
*positional ADP in parentheses
Catcher
Kelly Shoppach (19, pictured above) - The 29-year-old-to-be had never been given regular playing time until Victor Martinez went down last year, and he didn't disappoint. All Shoppach did was hit 21 home runs in 352 at-bats. The Tribe doesn't plan on eliminating his at-bats with Martinez back in the fold, either, so he's a great source of cheap power. I could justify taking him in bigger mixed leagues.
Yadier Molina (23) - The youngest of the three Molina brothers is only 26 years old, and he's improved himself into a .300 hitter. You don't want him starting in a mixed league, but he's a good option as a really late NL-only choice due to his ability to help your batting average. Plus, there could be some power in his bat down the road -- as there isn't much to speak of to this point. You never know when/if it develops.
Chris Snyder (24) - It all depends on what you're looking for. Snyder is the anti-Yadier, putting up a .237 average last year while flashing some solid power. Owners letting him fall are likely scared off by the presence of Miguel Montero, but Snyder's not going away just yet. Again, late-rounder in NL-only leagues.
First Base
Ryan Garko (26) - I realize we had him 28th in our rankings, but we also listed five players who MDC didn't because of different eligibility requirements. We have to remember that Garko drove home 90 runs last year -- in a season when everyone called him a bust. He's liable to drop way too far for a guy with his power potential. You can sleep on him, but don't pass out.
Second Base
Kelly Johnson (13) - He took a small step backwards last season, but he was only 26. We've seen enough potential in the minors and a bit in the majors to believe he's capable of 20 home runs and steals in the same season. His average has steadily improved, and his service time (two and a half seasons) points to this year being his breakout campaign. We definitely like him better than Mark DeRosa and Kaz Matsui, both of whom you'll find ahead of Johnson on the ADP list.
Shortstop
J.J. Hardy (11) - We have him a few spots higher, but I normally wouldn't be offended much by this ADP slot. That is, until I saw who was sitting in front of him. Miguel Tejada is slotted 10th. I don't know whether to laugh or vomit. People, if you do nothing else for me, do not draft Tejada before Hardy. Lord knows I don't ask you for much. I said it in the Astros preview (under the "bust" section, obviously), but I'll reiterate it all right here. Tejada is old. He had three home runs and 23 RBI in the last 86 games last season, while garnering only 24 walks all season. Hardy, on the other hand, is only 26. He's played two full seasons and hit 26 and 24 home runs, respectively. If you are scared about consistency, he avoided the streakiness in 2008 with equally successful first and second halves. Yuniesky Betancourt (24) - He hasn't shown much offense thus far in his career. Still, he's only being drafted in five percent of the leagues out there. Julio Lugo is going higher and more frequently. Betancourt has the capability to hit .280 with 10 home runs and close to 80 RBI. You know who else has the potential to post those numbers? This guy. Nab Betancourt late in AL-only leagues -- filling other positions first -- since there aren't any real elite shortstop options in the American League.
Third Base
Adrian Beltre (14) - We've got him 12th, but there are two guys in front of him who MDC doesn't list for the same reason mentioned in Garko's passage above. Anyway, Beltre's annually underrated now because of his insane 2004 season. It's become painfully obvious he's not the guy who hit .334 with 48 bombs and 121 RBI. If you remove that season, though, you'd still have a 30-year-old who's going to hit 25 home runs and drive home somewhere between 75 and 100 RBI. He's not going to kill your batting average, either, so I'd love to know what Ty Wigginton is doing ahead of him on ADP charts. Plus, Beltre's established much more consistency than Alex Gordon, Jorge Cantu and Aubrey Huff -- all of whom are going ahead of him. I didn't say I'd necessarily take him over those guys, due to upside in some cases, but he's more reliable for baseline numbers.
Outfield
Cameron Maybin (62) - You aren't going to surprise anyone here, but he's got some serious potential. The power won't come just yet, but the speed will. You know the Marlins aren't averse to letting youngsters play into major league form. His time to shine is now.
Colby Rasmus (80) - The Cardinals are moving people around in anticipation of him arriving sometime this season. I wouldn't bother with him in most mixed leagues, but NL-only players, take note. There's good power/speed potential here for the late pick.
Daniel Murphy (97) - He didn't make our initial rankings, but we compiled those as a staff before he was endorsed as the Mets' starting left fielder by his manager, Jerry Manuel. The kid flashed some nice wood work in a brief stint last season. He hit .313 with 17 RBI in only 131 at-bats. He has the ability to hit for a solid average (.280ish), and go about 15/15 in the power/speed categories, while driving in and scoring some runs. One thing to watch in the upcoming weeks is his spike in value, as you'd think it would be inverse with the decline of Ryan Church's (54).
Starting Pitcher
Scott Baker (54) - After Baker returned from injury in early June, he went 9-4 with a 3.29 ERA. He struck out 112 batters in 139 1/3 innings. The 27-year-old will anchor a young Twins pitching staff this season, and he's got the physical tools to emerge as a top-40 fantasy pitcher. Anthony Reyes (89) - Reyes was once a highly touted prospect, but he had his confidence shattered with a dismal 2007 season. Once he was mercifully given a change of scenery last season, he dealt a 1.83 ERA in six starts with the Indians. He'll be their fourth starter this year, looking to continue on that hot start in the American League.
Anibal Sanchez (96) - Do you think it's wise to forget about someone who went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in his rookie season? How about when you consider he was only 22 years old? Sanchez has been injured the past two seasons, so there's a level of risk involved, but he has a good enough arm with plenty of youth left in him to become an incredible sleeper this season. The now-25 Sanchez is said to be in great shape and capable of a full season. The cherry on top? He pitches in one of the best pitcher-friendly parks in the bigs. NL-only leaguers best take note on draft day, and even players in large mixed leagues should have their eye on him from the get-go. If he gets off to a hot start, don't miss the boat.
Relief Pitcher
Chad Qualls (31) - Um, you're kidding, right? He's being drafted after a setup man (J.J. Putz), an unproven closer on an awful team (Heath Bell) and the Nationals' inconsistent closer? Qualls has the Diamondbacks' closing job, and he performed masterfully in that role late last season. After cycling through a handful of candidates before finding Qualls in '08, don't expect the Snakes to be quick with the hook this season.
Frank Francisco (35) - Again, I don't get it. We already mentioned a few who don't belong above Francisco in the Qualls entry, but Franky's one spot behind a man who had an awful ERA and is going to lose his job (George Sherrill) this year. Francisco struck out 83 batters in only 63 1/3 innings, rocks a nice WHIP and succeeded in his September trial-as-closer. The Rangers are just as good as anyone else in the AL West, so there's a chance for the former chair-thrower to garner a stout save total.
Scott Downs (n/a of 63 listed) - If you're looking for middle relief help, you'll get this one really cheap -- especially when you consider some of his counterparts are going as high as closers (Putz [30], Jose Arredondo [36], Grant Balfour [37]). I mentioned this in Always Be Closing, but Downs will provide great help in leagues where middle relievers are used. He had a 1.78 ERA in over 70 2/3 innings last season, and even managed to nail down five saves.
