Grand Theft Guide is FanHouse's fantasy baseball draft kit guide to all the base-stealers that matter in your league.Most people will tend to agree with the following statement: Today's players are bigger and stronger than their counterparts from 15 years ago. However, if you look at stolen base statistics from 1993 you'll find that 45 players swiped 20 or more bases that year. Six players even stole more than 50 bags. In 2008, only 37 players notched 20 or more stolen bases, with only three swiping 50 or more.
I'm not warning you that speed is fading or stealing bases is a dying art. I am trying to tell you that you need to know which players will produce for your fantasy team when it comes to stolen bases. You need to know who the top speedsters are, the cream of the crop. You also need to know some of the lesser-known sources for stolen bases and some of the guys you may want to avoid. Without this knowledge, your fantasy team may have trouble "keeping up" with the competition.
The Speedsters
Willy Taveras, Reds – Taveras led the league is stolen bases with 68 in only 479 at-bats last season. He feels that he can steal 100 if he gets his on-base percentage up in '09. Don't bank on 100 from Taveras, but expect him to, once again, be near the top in this category. I believe he'll lead the league with 77 in 2009.
Jose Reyes, Mets – Even though his stolen base output dropped from 78 to 56 last year, Reyes is still an elite stolen base threat. Last season's drop-off was caused by an injury which limited his always-on "green light". Reyes should bounce back in '09 into the 65-plus range.
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox – Ellsbury swiped 50 bags last year but only 16 in the second half. This could have been due to a drop in his on-base percentage. If he can get his on-base percentage back up he's a candidate to swipe even more in '09 than he did in '08. Sixty stolen bases aren't out of the question.
Brian Roberts, Orioles – Had his third consecutive year with 35 or more stolen bases. He probably would have had more if he hadn't finished second in doubles. The Orioles don't want Roberts padding his stolen base stats by stopping at first base, but wouldn't fantasy GM's love that? He's still a top-five speed guy no matter which bag he's standing at after the dust settles. I'm betting his doubles drop in '09 and his stolen bases go up towards the 45 mark.
Chone Figgins, Angels – The speed of Figgins has never been in question. It's always been his ability to stay healthy. If Figgins can reach 600 at-bats, he can steal 60. If recent history repeats itself, you'll get a few more than 400 at-bats and 40 stolen bases. Still, not too shabby, but I'm banking on a healthy Figgins with 50 swipes in '09.
Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners – Ichiro is aging, yes. But, he's the model of consistency in just about every aspect of the game of baseball. His 43 steals probably aren't in the cards for 2009, but he'll make his way back up to 35.
Hanley Ramirez, Marlins – His days of stealing 50+ bases are likely over, especially with a move to batting third in the lineup instead of leadoff. But, he's as close to a lock as you get for 30 stolen bases, which go along great with his 30 home run potential.
Michael Bourn, Astros – The extra at-bats Bourn received with the trade to Houston introduced us to a young speedster who could easily top 50 stolen bases in the future. Unfortunately, it also introduced Bourn's inability to hit lefties. His .229 batting average needs to come up a bit (something he's been working on in the offseason) to guarantee full-time at-bats in 2009. Expect a rise in batting average from Bourn and more importantly a few more stolen bases -- maybe 45.
Carl Crawford, Rays – For the first time in three years, Crawford failed to reach 50 stolen bases. Injuries were to blame. When Crawford returns to the field in '09, in good health, his stolen bases totals will return to the 45-55 range.
Jimmy Rollins, Phillies – Rollins keeps getting better and better each year with regards to his stolen base ability. Even though he had 160 fewer at-bats in '08 than '07, he stole more bases. If his speed trends keep climbing, Rollins will make it towards the top of this elite list. I'm seeing 55 or so stolen bases in 2009 for Rollins.
The Sleepers
Elvis Andrus, Rangers – Andrus has been anointed the starting shortstop as the Rangers moved Michael Young to third base. He stole 54 bases last season in Double-A Frisco and could be a burner on the basepaths in Arlington too.
Cameron Maybin, Marlins – Maybin is another rookie who is expected to break camp with the big club. He's stolen 20-plus bases in each of his three professional seasons and the Marlins plan to bat Maybin leadoff.
Coco Crisp, Royals – Crisp stole 20 bases last season in limited playing time as he lost at-bats to Jacoby Ellsbury. With the trade to Kansas City, Crisp will receive more at-bats and should steal more bases in '09.
Josh Anderson, Braves – Anderson stole ten bases last season in his late-season, 136 at-bat, call-up. He's expected to leave Spring Training as the Braves starting center fielder and should keep stealing bases as long as he keeps the job. Pressure from prospect Jordan Schafer could cut Anderson's year short, but he'll burn while he gets the opportunity.Alexi Casilla, Twins – Casilla has always been blazing fast. But finger and back injuries in 2008 kept him off the field and not very swift on the basepaths when he was playing. While healthy in 2007, he stole 11 bases in only 189 at-bats. As Casilla enters 2009 in good health, he has the potential to swipe 30.
The Avoidables
Juan Pierre , Dodgers – Had only 375 at-bats in '08 due to a very crowded Dodger outfield, a problem that hasn't been completely remedied yet. He still stole 40 bases and could do that again or even more. But, it's more likely that Pierre sits in a reserve role all season and steals 20 or so bases, instead of 40-plus.
Johnny Damon, Yankees – Damon turns 36 this season, and even though he's increased his stolen base total in each of the last three seasons, the Yankees might prefer to let their new bats do the talking in '09 -- taking away a few of Damon's stolen base opportunities. Damon will still get his, but expect a low-20s stolen base total instead of one in the high 20s.
Matt Holliday, Athletics – Holliday was a top fantasy outfielder and a potential first-round selection until he was traded to Oakland. Most expect his power numbers to suffer away from Coors Field, but his stolen base total could suffer as well. Oakland, as a team, runs far less than Colorado does. Holliday should see some of those extra "green light" opportunities go away in 2009. Look for him to head back towards 15 or so stolen bases instead of the 28 he swiped last year.
Joey Gathright, Cubs – Gathright stole 21 bases last year in only 279 at-bats. While that sounds wonderfully appealing, remember that Gathright is now with the Chicago Cubs instead of the Royals. He's going to have to compete in Spring Training just for a roster spot, much less a reserve outfielder role on the club. Also remember that Gathright's .311 on-base percentage is lower than 16 players' batting average from 2008. You have to actually get to first base safely before you can steal second, and that's not going to happen too much for Gathright in 2009. Don't expect double-digit stolen bases from him.
Randy Winn, Giants – Yes, Winn increased his stolen base totals from 15 to 25 from 2007 to 2008. That's impressive for a guy in his mid-thirties. However, he stole 18 of his 25 bases in the first half, slowing down dramatically as the season wore on. Winn will turn 35 this season and I would expect his stolen base totals to take a step backwards in 2009. Look for something like 15 instead of 25 this year.
