You don't win your league by not screwing up a first-rounder. You aren't going to find them on this list, because those picks should be the obvious studs like Albert Pujols, A-Rod and Hanley Ramirez. You can, however, win your league by fleecing your league-mates in the late rounds. Let's put it this way: if someone drafted Josh Hamilton, Cliff Lee, Edinson Volquez, Ryan Ludwick and Carlos Quentin with late picks last season, how do you think that team fared?
Assuming they didn't screw up their early picks, it would be a championship team, no question. With this in mind, let's try to find five guys who will similarly exceed their draft value in 2009.
B.J. Upton, Rays - Lost in the Rays' brilliant team play last regular season was the utter disappointment Bossman Junior was to fantasy owners. His home run total went down from 24 to 9, his average plummeted from .300 to .273, and he had 15 fewer RBI. The good news, however, is that he still found ways to progress in other areas. He doubled his stolen base total (44 in '08), his strikeouts went down and he walked 97 times (up from 65). This shows that he grew as a complete baseball player. Considering that he's only turning 25 years old this season, there is reason for hope.
Oh, and this: Upton played last season with a torn labrum in his shoulder. He's now progressing and should be ready to go after missing only a week or so of the regular season. Plus, the power already started to return before he went under the knife. He raked in the ALDS and ALCS, to the tune of seven home runs and 15 RBI in only 11 games.
So, what can we expect? With the added growth in plate discipline, and a now healed shoulder, I don't think a .300 average with 30 jacks, 100 RBI and 50 steals is out of the question. Those are first-round numbers, and he's going to get picked much later than that.
Rather have him than ... Alfonso Soriano
Justin Verlander, Tigers - Every trend pointed to Verlander being an absolute monster last season, and he awarded fantasy owners with a steaming pile of crap in return. He was downright embarrassing through his first eight starts, sitting at 1-6 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He closed the season with a stretch that was even worse, as he was abused for a 7.20 ERA in his last six starts. In the middle of that, though, he had a long stretch where he wasn't totally useless (9-7, 3.61, 105 strikeouts in 122 innings). We can sit here all day debating what was wrong with Verlander; his velocity was down a bit for most of the season. He didn't really show any signs of injury, and he shouldn't have been fatigued from overuse, as he threw almost exactly the same number of innings as he did in '07. The fact of the matter is that he still has stud potential.
He's going to be a risky pick, because there's no guarantee he can return to form at the snap of a finger. Still, he's only 26 when the season begins, and that's awfully young to give up on the guy. He's definitely worth a mid-to-late round pick as your third starting pitcher. The chances of him developing into a front-line ace are good enough to warrant that.
Rather have him than ... Edinson Volquez
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies - Speaking of guys who screwed over their fantasy owners last season, it's time to talk about the former Rookie of the Year. Unlike Verlander, however, Tulowitzki wasn't really ever totally healthy. In fact, the entire Rockies season by June was a disaster, and he was as big a problem as anyone. You can write the season off due to his health and the dreaded sophomore slump. What we do know is that he's only 24 years old, and in 2007 he put up really solid numbers. He hit .291, drove in 99, went deep 24 times, and scored 104 times. This was mostly due to a late surge as well, because he did most of his damage in the second half.
Last season, he did hit .327 in his last 62 games after returning from injury, but the power never really came back. Now he's had an entire offseason to refocus himself and get completely healthy.
I'm fully expecting a bounce-back season from the youngster. He plays in the thin Colorado air, and he's already shown the potential to get scorching hot.
Rather have him than ... Derek Jeter
Chris Davis, Rangers - I was initially reluctant to include Davis on this list, because he's bound to get tons of love across the 'net. The fact of the matter, though, is it would be irresponsible to leave him off this list. He is a home run machine. He hit 36 total as he bounced around the minors in 2007. He hit 13 taters in only 46 minor league games last season before getting the call to the majors. All he did in his time in the bigs was hit 17 bombs in 80 games. He'll be 23 this season, and he's playing in a spectacular hitters' park. More runs were scored in the Ballpark at Arlington last year than any other, and it ranked fifth in home runs.
While plate discipline could be an issue (20 walks and 88 strikeouts), I'm confident the Rangers will stick with the youngster at first base all season. This means you are definitely going to see an excess of 30 home runs -- and I personally think he'll make a run at 40.
The Rangers have an incredibly exciting young offense, and Davis is going to be a big part of it. Get aboard the train early, and enjoy the ride.
Rather have him than ... Aubrey Huff
Adam Jones, Orioles - It's only a matter of time before this kid "gets it." He's got all the tools to be one of the best outfielders in the league, and the O's let him sniff regular playing time last season as a 22-year-old. His numbers were modest, as he's still a year or two away. He has the potential to be a 30 homer-20 steal guy down the road, while flashing a stout batting average.
File Jones away as a deep sleeper, because there is no guarantee he'll start to completely blossom this season. He's the type you keep stashed on your bench, in hopes that he turns into a productive fantasy player during this season.
Rather have him than ... Hideki Matsui
