As our old adage goes, you can't win your fantasy baseball league in the early rounds, but you can definitely lose it by reaching for the overrated players on the board. This isn't to say the guys on this list are bad players -- far from it, in fact -- but that they are likely going to be drafted far too high in fantasy leagues. Whether it's due to unreasonable expectations, too much name recognition, or a fluky 2008 season, here are five guys we recommend you avoid on draft day.
CC Sabathia, Yankees - I'm a fan of the big man, and it was very exciting the way he put the Milwaukee Brewers on his back last season down the stretch. Still, the second half he put together in Milwaukee was over and above what he's actually capable of accomplishing over the course of a full season, especially now that he's pitching in the offensively-charged AL East. Plus, the Yankees' defense sucks, and they haven't altered it enough by simply adding a stellar glove at first base. Add to that the lofty expectations everyone ties to a pitcher when he goes to the Yankees (dude, he's gonna win 30 games!), and you have a recipe for fantasy bust-hood.
I'll reiterate what I've already mentioned in the intro: I'm not saying Sabathia is a bad pitcher, or that he can't help fantasy teams at all. If he inexplicably falls into the third round of your draft, by all means, pull that trigger. In most leagues, though, I expect him to be the first pitcher off the board, and probably taken in the first round. After burning a first-round pick on him, people will be awfully disappointed when he returns a 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 215 strikeouts and 18 wins. Mark my words and let someone else take the plunge.
I'd rather have ... Johan Santana
Francisco Rodriguez, Mets - Since taking the closer role on a full-time basis for the Angels, K-Rod has racked up four straight 40-save seasons, including the record-breaking 62 saves last season. Now he's going to the National League with a fat new contract, and playing in what most believe will be a pitcher's park. So, why in God's name is he here on this list? First of all, he's not getting 69 save chances again. Ever. That's an absolutely insane total, because he played on a team who won 100 games and he was fiercely fighting for a major league record. Lost in all that mix are the facts that his strikeout rate is dwindling and his WHIP is rising. This might be nitpicking, but it illustrates that his stuff isn't as powerful as it once was.
Also, he's never pitched in an atmosphere like New York -- the OC is really laid back, I hear -- and I'm still waiting for the day when all that torque he puts on his elbow during delivery is going to cause his ulnar-collateral ligament to fly into the stands.
Most of all, though, do you know what kind of a price you'll have to pay to draft this guy? I'm a huge proponent of waiting until late in the draft to find your closer(s), and K-Rod is going to be drafted quite highly. Despite all the above risks I outlined, I won't be surprised if he's the best closer in fantasy. We all know fantasy sports are all about value, though, and he's not going to separate himself enough from the pack to justify throwing away your fourth-round pick. That's the type of mistake that loses leagues, kids. Watch someone else take him and grab a quality save machine eight rounds later (like the dude I mention just below).
I'd rather have ... Bobby Jenks
Matt Holliday, A's - Have you ever seen his numbers away from Coors Field? I know some people are under the misconception that this humidor thing made Coors a pitcher's park, but it's still among the best hitters parks in all of baseball, and Holliday took full advantage of his time there. He's hit .357 at home and .280 on the road in his career. He has 84 home runs in Coors, while he's only knocked 44 out of opposing yards. The RBI difference? A drastic 307-176 gap. His OPS is 265 points higher in the Colorado air. Noticing a trend? He's a world-beater in the thin air, and a good player everywhere else. Good players don't get drafted in the first round in fantasy baseball, so keep these numbers in mind when you see Holliday's name on the board.
Oh, one final note: Those 28 steals last year? You can kiss those goodbye. Billy Beane baseball teams limit the damage they do to themselves. They view outs as precious, and refuse to give the defense additional chances at outs. That means they don't bunt, and -- you guessed it -- don't like to attempt to steal. The A's only attempted 109 steals last year, compared to 178 by the Rockies.
I'd rather have ... B.J. Upton
Derrek Lee, Cubs - Whether it was the broken wrist in 2006 or something else, Lee just doesn't have much power anymore. As someone who watches every inning the Cubs play, I can tell you that the overwhelming majority of Lee's 42 home runs in the past two seasons have been in the first few rows of the bleachers. Most of the "long fly balls" he hits end up on the warning track. Last year, he only hit seven homers after May. Considering his batting average isn't overly impressive, and he doesn't steal bases anymore, what value does he bring to your fantasy baseball team? And from a corner infielder at that.
Just, please, take my word as a Cubs fan and avoid owning Derrek Lee at all costs. He's not worth it.
I'd rather have ... Chris Davis
Derek Jeter, Yankees - I'm a huge fan of the Captain, but fantasy baseball is all business. Jeter is a much better real player than a fantasy player, and his numbers are deteriorating quickly as he ages. He's going to help you in one category: Batting average. That's it. He doesn't run enough anymore to help much in steals, and his power isn't much to speak of. Plus, he scored the lowest amount of runs last season of his career (when playing a full slate). If he had any other name, we could almost justify calling this player a sleeper. He's turning 35 this year, so he probably has four or five good seasons left. The Yankees lineup was in disarray due to injuries and inconsistency for most of last season, and it should be much improved this time around. The problem, though, is that his name is Derek Jeter. That name recognition alone gets him drafted about three rounds too high. Look past all his accolades and the lofty legacy and just at the numbers you expect from him this year. If you are able to properly rate him, by the time you warm up to drafting him, he'll be long gone. And it won't hurt your team one iota.
I'd rather have ... Troy Tulowitzki
