Yard Work focuses on what chicks allegedly love: the long ball. From the big boppers to the small poppers, it's a rundown of which home run hitters will make a dent in your fantasy baseball league.
When Jose Reyes makes his move for second and robs another bag from an unsuspecting pitcher, the Mets faithful follow with applause and "Jose, Jose Jose Jose!" chants. But there's 50 or so more to go from Jose, and no matter how dirty that jersey gets, it's still just a stolen base.
David Wright steps up to the plate, drills a first-pitch heater into the picnic area ... it's BIG APPLE TIME. Cue the wackier video animation and the rumbling seats, too.
Say what you want about the appeal of steals, the home run is still king.
In fantasy baseball, however, that king can be overrated.
During the 2008 season, 28 players smacked over 30 dingers, but only 16 swiped more than 30 bases. Out of the upper-echelon 28, about one-third of the batters were taken a significant discount in last year's fantasy drafts: Carlos Delgado (38 HR), Ryan Ludwick (37), Carlos Quentin (36), Jim Thome (34), Jack Cust (33), Mike Jacobs (32), Jason Giambi (32), Aubrey Huff (32) and Jason Bay (31). While Ludwick and Quentin were breakouts, the rest of that group could be classified as name retreads -- a few of which were drafted in the last round (Hey Huff!).
The point to take away, aside from never counting an old blaster completely out (Hey Delgado!), is that there's often a lot of hidden fantasy value to be discovered when it comes to homers. It may seem tempting to plunk down a first-round pick on Ryan Howard's 48 bombs, but think about where Adam Dunn is going (Average Draft Position: 63) and what you should spend that top pick on instead (a stud at a scarce position, perhaps?).
So with that in mind, it's time to take a look at tiers of big knock glory for the 2009 season. We're limiting this to predicted shakeup in the tiers, rather than rehashing last year's impact hitters (which are listed in the 'others').
Ready to Rake (picks for 30+ HR)
Hanley Ramirez, Marlins -- According to various reports, he's added roughly 25 pounds of muscle. That may be just Spring Training fodder, or there may be something to it. The important thing to note is fantasy baseball's golden child of shortstops is all grown up and batting third for the Marlins. His homers have trended from 17 to 29 to 33 over the last three years, while the steals took a dip last season. So why isn't he on the others list with the rest of the guys expected to hit 30 again? Because we think his upside is joining the rarefied 40-homer club. And we're not the only ones.Evan Longoria, Rays -- There's no doubt Longoria lived up to the hype in his rookie year. In 448 at-bats, he smacked 27 homers and drove in 85. The scary part: he's only 23 ... this actually gets better. It should come as no surprise when Longoria tops 30 jacks this season and possibly even surpasses 35. Step aside Carlos Pena; this is the Tampa Bay slugger you want.
Carlos Beltran, Mets -- I saw Nick Markakis valued above Beltran on a few early cheat sheets. That's silly Gonzo love. While Markakis is a fine player and someone I expect bigger things out of, Beltran has been a consistent, established force the past three seasons in a good lineup. Sure, his power output dropped to 27 HR last year, but he also knocked 40 doubles and should get back above 30 HR this season.
Chris Davis, Rangers -- Here's where the fun starts! The Chris Davis bandwagon has already left the station and is quickly gaining steam. In the latest mock drafts, Davis is being selected with an ADP of 65.71. That's three spots above AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and eight spots above record-breaking closer Francisco Rodriguez. He's only got 295 major league at-bats, but drilling 17 homers and 23 doubles in that sample size was enough to get us pumped for the possibility of 30 jacks in 2009. The usual caveats apply, but Davis is the real deal.
Alfonso Soriano, Cubs -- After two injury-riddled seasons, it's easy to forget this was the same dude who smacked 46 homers at RFK in 2006. No one is expecting that kind of output again from the 33-year-old, but you can't deny his power potential when he's on a hot streak. In May 2008, he belted 10 out of the park and drove in 29 runs. A healthy Soriano is a 35-homer star with some speed still left to burn.
Paul Konerko, White Sox -- What a difference a year makes, right? Konerko was perennially drafted as one of the surest sluggers at first base. After a miserable season, everyone is already tossing this guy out with the chicken bones. His average draft position is 176 -- that's below a pitcher like Aaron Cook, which is just plain silly. Let's not forget Konerko topped 30 homers every season from 2004-07, and had nine dongs in September '08. You want Davis at a fraction of the price? Try Uncle Paulie.
Jorge Cantu, Marlins -- A lot of people must believe Cantu's 29 bombs last season were all flukes, because that would be the only way to explain why his ADP is about 148. It doesn't really make sense that he's being taken after Edwin Encarnacion. Cantu, who also smacked 41 doubles in '08, returns to the heart of the lineup this year and qualifies at two positions. Rest assured his power is legit -- even in a tough park like Dolphin Stadium.
Justin Morneau, Twins -- Fantasy owners surely appreciated Morneau's 129 RBI last year, but his total of 23 jacks left much (OK, about 10) to be desired. Chalk it up to tough luck: the Canadian slugger drilled 47 doubles, and should see more of those clear the wall this year. Draft him with confidence.
David Ortiz, Red Sox -- He sure looks older than he actually is, doesn't he? Ortiz is only 33, but troublesome knee and wrist injuries last season cast doubt over his usual spot among the game's best power hitters. A season like 2006 (54 homers) is in the clouds, but I think he can get back to 35 with a clean bill of health. If your league employs a utility spot, getting Big Papi in the fifth round is a nice value pick.
Joey Votto, Reds -- Brandon Phillips is Cincinnati's new cleanup hitter after the departure of Adam Dunn. But by the end of the season, this is the guy who should be filling that gap. Take a closer look at a rookie season where he had 24 moonshots and you'll find a scorching September that accounted for nine of them. In such a favorable place to hit as Great American Ballpark, I'd be shocked if he doesn't reach the 30-homer plateau. Forget Derrek Lee and take Votto. Oh, and Phillips has an outside shot at 30, too.Chris Young, Diamondbacks -- Like Morneau, this five-tool outfielder took a step back in the homer department, though I think we'll see a change of fortune this season. He may never get beyond the Mike Cameron comparisons, but he's got a very good shot to send 30 flying in Arizona.
Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, Astros -- Just throwing these two master blasters out there because they fell just short of the mark last season, but should pass it this time around.
Others Who Should Hit 30+ Again: Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Carlos Delgado, Manny Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Ryan Ludwick, Albert Pujols, Carlos Quentin, Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, Prince Fielder, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, David Wright, Grazy Sizemore, Mark Teixeira, Aubrey Huff, Dan Uggla, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena, Jason Bay
Digging In (picks for 20-29 HR)
Alex Rios, Blue Jays -- I don't think he'll ever be the 30-30 player some have envisioned, but he definitely has the pop to be a perennial 20-HR hitter. If he can avoid a similar slow start this year, 24 bombs shouldn't be a problem for the five-category Blue Jay.
Jeff Francoeur, Braves -- Seriously, don't write this guy off. Francoeur let a lot of fantasy owners down last season, and while they may not let him off the hook, you shouldn't shy from drafting him. After all, it only will cost you something like a ridiculous 26th-round pick. That's a rock bottom price for a possible 25 homers and 100 RBI. Now that he has better conditioning and a new approach, you know I'm taking that flier.
Matt Kemp, Dodgers -- Kemp's average draft position has soared to the third round and rightfully so. Even a moderate improvement in power would bring him to 25 homers. Combine that with his 30-steal speed and you've got an elite fantasy player.Chris Iannetta, Rockies and Ryan Doumit, Pirates -- We knew both these guys could really hit, and last season they finally got their chances to break through. If you're looking for a Brian McCann Lite, Iannetta and Doumit will be waiting for your call around the 12th round.
Nelson Cruz, Rangers -- Yes, he did his minor league damage in the hitter-friendly PCL, but 37 homers is 37 homers. Oh yeah, and his seven jacks in 115 at-bats for Texas weren't too shabby either. I think his average draft position of 129 is a bit out of control, but the potential has always been there. At age 28 and with a full-time gig, it's time he finally lives up to it.
Dallas McPherson, Marlins -- He could very well be the cheapest source of power in fantasy leagues this year, and you probably won't even have to draft him in mixed leagues. The oft-injured former Angels prospect hit 42 homers at Class AAA last season. If he wins the hot corner job, the sleeper alarm goes off.
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals -- Ignore the middle infielder-esque HR total of 14 from last year. He'll surge back over 20 and will come at a reduced draft price this season.
Others Who Should Hit 20+ Again: Pat Burrell, Jack Cust, Chase Utley, Mike Jacobs, Jason Giambi, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, Aramis Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Nate McLouth, Edwin Encarnacion, Xavier Nady, Rick Ankiel, Adam LaRoche, Matt Holliday, Mike Cameron, Brad Hawpe, Hunter Pence, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, J.J. Hardy, Nick Swisher, Raul Ibanez, Jhonny Peralta, Nick Markakis, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chipper Jones, Milton Bradley, Curtis Granderson, Torii Hunter, Magglio Ordonez, Garrett Atkins, Vernon Wells, Stephen Drew, Alexei Ramirez, Jay Bruce, Bobby Abreu, Jose Guillen, Derrek Lee, Corey Hart, Jason Kubel
Pulling Weeds (still waiting for their chance to rake)
Matt Wieters, Orioles -- He most likely won't have a spot in the majors to start, but it's only a matter of time before he gets his shot to shine. And when he does, it could have a Longoria-type effect in fantasy leagues. Just don't go overboard with where you select him. If you're in an AL-only league, then go nuts.
Travis Snider, Blue Jays -- Last year, the 21-year-old proved two things throughout his minor league action and cup of coffee in the bigs: boy does he strike out a lot, and man, is his bat something special. If he gets a full share of at-bats this year, he has a shot at 20 homers. And if he doesn't, remember he's only 21.
Matt LaPorta, Indians -- Like Wieters, he won't make the opening-day roster, but the outfielder's power potential makes him well worth watching in mixed leagues and especially in AL-only. He's got star potential, for sure.
Colby Rasmus, Cardinals -- The next Grady Sizemore? There's a looong way to go, but that's his kind of upside. He should be past the slumps and injuries that bogged him down last season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him show some fantasy-worthy pop in the show this year.
Nolan Reimold, Orioles -- Just because he can't win an outfield job this spring doesn't mean you should boot him off your radar. The 25-year-old has a solid plate approach and can hit 20+ jacks if the O's (or someone else) open up room for him down the line.
