I got my start in this industry at a now-defunct site called The Talented Mr. Roto. The namesake for the site, Matthew Berry, now does his thing over at ESPN. One hard and fast rule he always lived by -- and I'm sure he still does -- was this mantra: Never pay for saves. It's just as simple as it sounds. If you play in an auction league, let everyone else bid on Francisco Rodriguez. Your money can be better spent elsewhere. If you draft, just find your relievers in the last few rounds. I'm not as hardcore into the theory, but it certainly has merit.
The rationale behind the theory is that saves always appear, and that lesser closers can easily accrue more saves than the high draft picks. Look at Brad Ziegler, Chad Qualls and Frank Francisco during last September for evidence of the former. Brian Wilson outsaving Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera proves the latter.
What about J.J. Putz and Chad Cordero falling to injury, or Manny Corpas melting down, not to mention Eric Gagne losing his job to Salomon Torres? Did anyone believe George Sherrill was going to save 13 more games than Takashi Saito? Or that Joakim Soria would end with more saves than Jonathan Papelbon?
Remember, saves are only one category. I played in a league last year where I drafted B.J. Ryan, Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol in the late rounds as my three relievers. At the time, none of them were really sought after, but I definitely didn't finish last in saves. Not even close, in fact.
I said earlier I wasn't as hardcore into the never pay for saves theory, because there is always a certain value to be had. I once played in a league full of Berry's employees, and we were waiting way too long for closers. Simply put, if everyone in your league reads ESPN, and Papelbon is sitting there in the ninth round, just pick him already. His job is secure, he's going to save 40 and his rate numbers are outstanding. More generally speaking, the elite tier of closers puts up stellar rate numbers in addition to saves, while some lower-tier guys can harm your ERA and WHIP. With all this in mind, I recommend that you pay for saves, but do not overpay.
Meaning, you need to find a target group of guys, and once one of them gets taken, you can swoop in and fill out your relieving corps -- like I did in my example from last year. I recommend you tier-up all your rankings, instead of just following a straight positional list. I did this in Always Be Closing already, so we'll use that as an example.
Here's what I'll be doing. The group I named, "The Great Value," those are my guys. I play in one league where we only draft one closer. I'm very confident that one of these four will be my closer. I'll probably even be able to wait until the last round, which means I can fill in the rest of my team while people are lunging at Kerry Wood and Trevor Hoffman. I'll take the chance that any one of my four guys puts up comparable numbers to those two. Even if they don't, is the gap going to be worth six rounds of picks? Not even close.
In several other leagues, you have to choose three relief pitchers. In these leagues, closers will be at a premium, so you'll see them flying off the board even higher. Let it happen. I'd grab one of the guys from the aforementioned group of four as your bullpen anchor. So, again, the key is to watch how the trends happen in your draft. Once Wilson and Qualls are taken, for example, it's time to jump on either Matt Lindstrom or Francisco. After I have my one closer to anchor, I'd continue waiting until the last two rounds. This is when you can roll the dice on some question marks like Mike Gonzalez, time-shares like Joey Devine or a setup man who is one injury away from being a stud -- like Putz. Coming away from the draft, a relieving corps of Lindstrom, Gonzalez and Putz doesn't quite have the cachet that K-Rod, Jenks and Fuentes would, but there will be many things that alter the way the season plays out. Just look to last year's examples I listed above.
In the end, nearly all fantasy leagues are different, but saves are a part of all of them. Don't completely discount the category, but you should not be wasting a fifth-round pick on a position that is easily the most fungible in the sport. So my mantra is a bit different than my old boss -- I'll pay for saves, though I would prefer to watch others in my league do so. I guess the hard-and-fast rule would be to not overpay for saves, but you shouldn't overpay for anything.
It's all about value, and, generally speaking, you can get the better value from your closers at the end of a draft than the early or middle rounds.
With all that said, would I rather have Frank Francisco than Francisco Rodriguez? Considering the price to pay for either guy: Absolutely.
Like I said, it's all about value.
