Sleepers and busts are played out phrases in the fantasy lexicon. They get routinely abused each year, but they're still important. Why? Well, in the case of the latter, you simply don't want to draft players who will stink. "Stink," of course, is relative. You'll see why in the following list of hitters you need to stay away from in 2009.
CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees: There is not much, statistically speaking, to indicate that Sabathia is going to have a miserable 2009 in New York. Yes, he just signed a monster contract, and yes, he was a candidate for the NL Cy Young last year. Oh, and yes, he has been incredibly consistent the last five years (188 IP, 10+ W). So why the hate? Well, mainly because his average draft position is 32, with a high draft spot of 10. 10! Look, it's entirely likely that Sabathia will have a nice season, and if you can land him as your ace in the third or fourth round, then yeah, you pull the trigger, especially with that Yankee offense behind him.
But the reality is that CC is six innings shy of 500 for the past two years, and that's a scary number -- particularly with the way Milwaukee treated his arm down the stretch. But most importantly, it's made all the scarier if you're burning an early pick on Sabathia and hinging your fantasy season to that arm.
Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox: Floyd's not blowing anyone away with his ADP of 142. Obviously. But he's being drafted at roughly the same time as folks like David Price, Adam Wainwright, Javier Vazquez and Brett Myers (notably before the latter two names). Regardless of Floyd's nice 2007, I want all four of those guys instead.
Why? Well, namely because, as I mentioned before his second-half falloff last year, the peripherals don't back up Floyd's performance. Specifically, his hit rate (h%) which showcased the difference between his first and second halves: 3.69 ERA /1.15 WHIP (23 percent) versus 4.22/1.38 (31 percent). Feel free to guess which half is which. And yes, I tend to think the second half will be more indicative of his 2009 performance than the first half.
Rich Harden, SP, Cubs: I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong about Harden in the second half of last year; he somehow managed to stay, for the most part, healthy in 2008. And now, apparently, he wants to start 30 games. Excuse me while I chuckle heartily at Harden, the Cubs and anyone in my fantasy league who starts sliding him up their draft board.
Make no mistake though, his value will rise as the season approaches, especially fueled by his ridiculous second half from last year, in which he posted a 2.00 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP and K'd an insane 98 in 81 innings. Don't be fooled into paying whatever it is you have to pay for him; save yourself the heartache and just let the Cubs fan in your league draft him.
Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Mets: There are myriad reasons why K-Rod should be avoided in 2009. First of all, he got straight paid this offseason. Regardless of what statistics say re: pre and post contract years (and it's very vague) I'd be lying if I said someone signing a big deal didn't scare me.
Secondly, his pitching motion has had folks freaking out for years, waiting for a major injury. Thirdly, his peripherals show that he secretly had his worst statistical season all while breaking the MLB saves record in 2008. And finally, J.J. Putz is waiting in wings in New York to pounce on that closer's gig if K-Rod falters at all, whether to injury or poor pitching. Oh yes, and feel free to tack on that 74 overall ADP -- higher if your league really rewards saves.
Carlos Zambrano, SP, Cubs: (Aside: no, I'm not just wasting column space on pulling Matt Snyder's strings. I can do that via email.) Zambrano was an anchor for fantasy staffs, posting a sub-4.00 ERA and striking out somewhere in the range of 175-210 batters a season, all while pitching over 200 innings. 2008 started out nicely (seemingly anyway) as he recorded a 2.84 ERA and won 10 games in the first half of the season. But his second half was a totally different animal, as he went just 4-3, walking 34 in just 68 innings.
More terrifying to me is that in order to grab him, you have to use what appears to be a 112-range draft pick. That's not too horrible, but the guy's coming off a pathetic second half (no-hitter excepted) and he's dealing with shoulder injuries that are keeping him out of the WBC and eye issues that have him debating Lasik surgery. Guh. Someone else can pay for that fun this year.
