When drafting in fantasy baseball, I often find rankings are a lot less useful than using the tier system. Simply group guys together with others who will perform similarly, and you won't focus on single players. Being frazzled when that single player is taken immediately before your pick is a good way to ruin your draft.
We're definitely not proponents of drafting closers high, but getting the last member of a tier at good value could work in the right situations.
The Elite
Francisco Rodriguez - Don't do it. Sure, he's one of the elite guys, but he's going to be drafted far too high in most leagues. There's no reason to use a fifth-round pick on him when you could get a Bobby Jenks about eight rounds later.
Jonathan Papelbon - An ERA in the low 2.00s, a sub 1.00 WHIP, and a team who gives him plenty of save chances. And, really, that's the worst-case scenario.
Mariano Rivera - The best closer of all-time showed there's still plenty of gas in the tank last season. He'll continue it again in 2009.
Joe Nathan - Here's a guy who I could see drafting from this elite tier, instead of letting others have him. He's badly overshadowed by the three above him, and you may even see a Brad Lidge-type get taken before him. If he falls far enough, you could get the same production as Rivera -- two to three rounds later. He's gonna save in the neighborhood of 40, have a WHIP around 0.90, and an ERA in the 1.50 range -- all the while, striking out more than a hitter per inning.
Joakim Soria - Up-and-coming stud alert. He's only 24 years old, and he saved 42 games last season for the Royals. He strikes out right close to a batter per inning, and rarely allows baserunners (0.86 WHIP last year). The 1.60 ERA didn't hurt either. Even if you think the Royals are gonna suck, he'll get plenty of save chances because he's so good. He'll easily save 40 of their wins.
Brad Lidge - He's a stud, true -- a closer who saved all 41 of his chances last season. Do you really believe that's gonna happen again, especially with him walking so many?
The Small Step Down
Bobby Jenks - The huge drop in strikeouts scares me, but he still finds ways to get the job done. Carlos Marmol - Time to make the big step to fantasy's elite. He will. His stuff is as good as anyone's.
Brian Fuentes - The Angels won't win 100 games again, but they gave K-Rod 69 chances last year. Even if you subtract 20, you have to like Fuentes to save many games this year. Oh, and you know he's happy to depart the thin air of Colorado.
B.J. Ryan - His save total was a bit low last season, but that's because the Jays took it easy on him early. He was coming off surgery, you know. This year, expect better numbers across the board.
The Serviceable
Kerry Wood - As a Cubs fan, I love Wood. Jumping to the AL at his age, though, and staying healthy are going to be a chore. Still, you could do much worse. He has great makeup as a closer.
Jose Valverde - His ERA took a big jump last year, and the Astros don't look to be providing more save opportunities than they did last year. Look for 35 saves and a 3.00 ERA.
Jonathan Broxton - He's certainly ready to take over, but he's shown enough inconsistency to rank with these guys instead of the above tiers.
Francisco Cordero - Lost a good chunk of control last season, but he's gonna get saves and strike out guys at a higher rate than one per inning.
The Poor Value
Huston Street - He blew seven saves in only 25 chances last season. He's going from a pitcher's park to a hitter's paradise. He's liable to only get about 20 saves and sport an ERA north of 3.50.
Trevor Hoffman - He's departing the best pitchers' park in baseball, and he allows far too many fly balls to expect his success as a 41-year-old to be exceptional. He shouldn't have any competition for saves, so he'll likely get about 35 -- while blowing about seven -- but he's gonna hurt your ERA and WHIP along the way. His name still carries tons of weight. Let someone else pay for it.
The Great Value
Brian Wilson - He's still growing into his potential, so don't let that awful ERA from last year scare you too much. He's going to strike out more than one hitter per inning, and you have to like his chances at 45 saves. The Giants are improved, and he'll become more reliable. He saved 41 last year. Chad Qualls - We saw a quick sample of Qualls as a closer last season, and it was impressive. He went 7-for-7 in saves down the stretch, putting together a 0.00 ERA and 0.41 WHIP. He's really trended nicely in nearly all categories the past few years as well, so it's realistic to expect he lasts a full season as a solid closer.
Matt Lindstrom - Very similar to Qualls, Lindstrom was the September closer for Florida, and it was pretty mutually beneficial. He went 5-for-5 on save chances with a 0.00 ERA and 0.48 WHIP. He doesn't strike out as many hitters as you'd like, but he's gonna come very cheap -- and it doesn't hurt to play in a spacious park.
Frank Francisco - I'll confess that I'm on the Rangers' bandwagon. That doesn't mean I'm clouded here, though. Francisco, like Lindstrom and Qualls, passed his closer audition with flying colors -- going 5-for-5 on save chances with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP in his last 11 outings. During that span, he struck out 18 batters in only 11 innings. In fact, Francisco punched out 83 hitters in only 63 1/3 innings last year. His ERA is never going to be minuscule -- due mostly to his homer-happy home park -- but he still worked well enough to compile a 3.13 in 2008. This is easily my favorite pick on this list. Get him late, be excited -- and please, don't heckle him. Your nose needn't be broken by his bullpen chair.
Quality Time-Shares or Low-Save Opportunities
Joey Devine, A's - He was decent last year -- if decent is a 0.59 ERA in 45 2/3 innings with 49 strikeouts.
Brad Ziegler, A's - He went 38 innings before getting scored upon. Once everyone "figured him out" he compiled a 2.91 ERA in his last 21 2/3 innings. The only problem is he walks too many and doesn't strike out enough.
Matt Capps - He did miss about six weeks, but he only got 26 save opportunities. He doesn't strike enough batters out or have a low enough ERA to take it on the chin in the saves category.
Joel Hanrahan - Love those strikeouts, but he got worse when the Nats promoted him to closer. We'll see how he reacts, but he likely won't have more than 30 save chances.
Heath Bell - Like pretty much everyone on his team, Bell was worlds worse in 2008 than he was in '07. He does pitch half his games in the best pitchers' park in the bigs, but if the ERA (3.58) and WHIP (1.21) are the same as '08, he's not going to save nearly enough games to justify a good pick in most leagues.
The Question Marks
Mike Gonzalez - He enjoyed a stint as closer for the Braves last year, and converted 10 of his 12 save chances. Of course, he compiled a horrifying 5.94 ERA during that same stretch. His strikeout rate is solid, but he walks too many. He'll get save chances playing for the Braves, but he's injury prone. Good luck.Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney - Neither is a very exciting option. Lyon's ERA was horrible in the light-hitting NL West last year, so what will the AL do to him? Plus, he's a very low strikeout guy. Rodney's been routinely lit up for the past two seasons. I'm avoiding both in all leagues. You can't be that desperate for saves.
Chris Ray, George Sherrill - This is a tough call. Ray hasn't been productive since 2006, and, even then, he wasn't setting the world on fire. Sherrill can help in strikeouts, but he kills ERA and WHIP. I'm predicting the O's start the year splitting save chances and end it with Ray having the job. Neither is worth owning in mixed fantasy leagues to begin the season.
The Rays - They really want Troy Percival to take this role again, but his health is a question -- and, obviously, age has to be as well, right. Dan Wheeler would fill in, but they also have Grant Balfour down there. The Rays were no fluke last season, so there are plenty of save chances to be had here, but we just can't be sure for whom. We'll check in when it gets closer to the season, but for now, I think Wheeler is your guy. He'd be in the "quality time-shares" bunch, and the best option there.
The Mariners - No. Just no. Step away from the computer. (Unless they put Brandon Morrow back there again, but I just don't see that happening).
Chris Perez, Ryan Franklin - Perez is the closer of the future, but he lost this job to Franklin in September. Due to strikeout rate and overall potential, Perez is far more enticing in fantasy circles, but what if he doesn't win the job outright just yet?
The Solid Setup Men
Most of these guys will help you in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, while garnering the occasional save. Plus, if your league uses holds, this is part of the elite tier.
J.J. Putz - He's one injury away from closing for a damn solid team. Meanwhile, he's helping you in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.
Jose Arredondo - With that sparkling 1.62 ERA last year, he also vultured 10 wins.
Grant Balfour - It's hard to see him duplicating that inexplicable 2008 -- seriously, compare those numbers to his career ones -- but it's worth a late-round flier if you use middle relievers.
J.P. Howell - In a few years, he's gonna take over as closer in Tampa and be a very solid option. For now, he'll continue to develop his craft -- he's only turning 26 this season -- as a stellar setup man.
Scot Shields - He'll strike guys out, while walking a few too many and keeping the ERA down.
Scott Downs - In the past two seasons -- 147 outings -- his ERA is below 2.00.
Takashi Saito - He's going to thrive in Boston as an eighth-inning guy.
Hideki Okajima - The left-handed complement to Saito.
Octavio Dotel - He struck out 92 guys in 67 innings last year.
Matt Thornton - From out of the blue, he became a stellar contributor in strikeout rate, ERA and WHIP last season at age 31.
Ryan Madson - Someone's going to have to pick up some of the workload in J.C. Romero's absence. The Phillies are likely hoping he gets a bit tougher on lefties, though he's not bad.
Hong-Chih Kuo - Exceptional ERA and K rate last year, and he'll be the primary setup man for Broxton this year. Plus, what if Broxton fails?
Kyle McClellan - He sported a 2.69 ERA through 57 appearances last year before falling apart down the stretch. We can write that off as fatigue for the rookie.
Kevin Gregg - Next in line for saves on a team who will win plenty of games should Marmol fall injured.
