Free agency, it's the nature of the game in the 21st century. No longer are players locked down to one major league franchise (study your baseball history about getting rid of the reserve clause), and it's often the case that players no longer choose to stay with one franchise due to fan and city loyalty (Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio). Today's players are guided by a simple, yet fiscally sound mantra: "show me the money!" Somewhere Jerry Maguire is smiling.
The offseason between 2008 and 2009 featured the same old storylines. We've seen aging superstars sign with better teams to make one last run for a title. We've seen spending by a franchise as if their new stadium has a printing press in the basement. We've even seen a bad economy create new twists to free agency this spring like "Manny being Manny" now being defined as trying to get one team to bid against itself.
Business of baseball aside, it's time to talk about players who are calling new cities home and how that will affect your fantasy baseball team.
Matt Holliday, Athletics -- Holliday came to Oakland in a trade and his fantasy value instantly plummeted. He went from a potential first-round selection to a middle to late second-rounder. This is all due to the fear that Holliday won't be the same hitter in Oakland that he was in friendly Coors Field. His career stats prove the point. His slugging percentage is almost 100 points lower on the road than at home for his career and he has almost twice as many home runs at home, playing in Colorado. A move like this doesn't turn Holliday into a slouch, but he's no longer first-round fantasy talent.
CC Sabathia, Yankees -- Sabathia racked up the frequent-flyer miles over the past 12 months, leaving a slow start in Cleveland behind for a dominating second half in Milwaukee, then signing as free agent with the Yankees in the offseason. His slow start in Cleveland could be attributed to being in the American League and having to face the DH, or maybe it was a higher than normal hit rate. Pitching for the Yankees in 2009, look for Sabathia's win total to jump a little even while his ERA rises. He's playing for a great team that's going to score lots of runs for him, but, he'll have to face a DH again. That in itself should cause Sabathia ERA and WHIP problems. He was massively overworked in 2008 as well. As his innings pitched come back down, watch for his strikeout total to fall too. Mark Teixeira, Yankees -- Teixeira is going to have the enviable opportunity of hitting third in a loaded Yankees lineup in 2009. Imagine how many good pitches he's going to see while batting after Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter and before Alex Rodriguez in the batting order. While he's not going to be able to enjoy the short porch in right field as the Yankees are moving to a new stadium, Teixeira's transition to New York should boost his fantasy value up towards the top end of his projections. Don't be surprised to see a .315 or higher batting average in addition to 40 home runs and 130 RBI.
Francisco Rodriguez, Mets -- K-Rod set the single-season saves record in 2008 with 62 saves. But, there are several reasons for concern in 2009 as he's set to close out games for the Mets. His velocity was down for some reason with the Angels in '08 which caused his strikeouts per nine innings ratio to drop from 12.03 to 10.14. He also might be sharing some of the closer responsibilities with J.J. Putz, another new addition to the Mets bullpen. He's most likely going to see a similar amount of close-game situations with the Mets as they play in a tougher division, but the Mets might not win as many games as the 2008 Angels did. That being said, and considering K-Rod's diminishing strikeout rate, Rodriguez will not have another record-breaking year in 2009.
Brian Fuentes, Angels -- Fuentes notched 30 saves last season for the Rockies after reclaiming the closer role. He had career numbers in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts per nine innings and batting average against. When Fuentes signed a deal with the Angels to replace departed Francisco Rodriguez, his fantasy value rose significantly. It's not just that he'll be playing on a better team with many more save opportunities. You also need to consider that Fuentes exploded in the second half last year. His ERA dropped from 3.94 to 1.47 and he almost doubled his strikeout total from 28 to 54. His road ERA of 1.84 screams that Fuentes could have a huge season in Los Angeles. A top-10 closer ranking with 40 saves isn't out of reach for Fuentes in 2009.A.J. Burnett, Yankees -- Burnett had a career year in Toronto in 2008 which was mainly due to his ability to stay off of the disabled list, something he's very rarely done in the past. He inked a big deal with in-division foe New York and could be in store for bigger things in '09. He's going to enjoy infielders Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano, as they will form a much thicker net for all of the groundballs Burnett induces. He's also going to enjoy extra run support from the Yankees offense. The Yankees scored more runs that the Blue Jays in 2008 and are sure to do so again in 2009 with their added weapons. Consider Burnett's improved strikeout per nine innings ratio and his lowered walks per nine innings ratio, in addition to the other benefits mentioned earlier, and Burnett should lower his ERA below the 4.00 mark in 2009 and could come close to matching his win total from last season. One caveat ... he must remain healthy. This task may be the most difficult of them all.
Kerry Wood, Indians -- I'd be remiss in my duties if I didn't mention this stat before and above all other stats when speaking of Kerry Wood. Wood has made 12 trips to the disabled list in his 11 major league seasons. To say he's fragile is an understatement to end all understatements. His propensity for injury aside, Wood put together a fine season in 2008 as the Cubs closer. He saved 34 games with a 3.26 ERA and had great peripherals (namely a high strikeout per nine innings ratio and low walks per nine ratio). The move to Progressive Field from Wrigley helps since Progressive is a pitcher's park. Look for Wood to continue to grow as a closer as his skill set seems finely in tune for that role. A total of 35 saves is easily attainable if Wood stays healthy for the Indians club in 2009.
