Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over. Meet the ...
Team who refuses to rebuild. Seriously, Drayton McLane, just keep holding out hope you can win the World Series and making your general managers deal every prospect you ever stumble across for the likes of Miguel Tejada and an overrated closer. It just keeps setting the franchise back years at a time. For now, they are solving a broken leg with a band-aid by winning 86 games and treading water.
The Breakout
Pickings are thin here, which isn't to say there are no good fantasy players. It's just not really fair to proclaim Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, or Carlos Lee a "breakout" candidate. I'll say Hunter Pence, though. We've seen just how good he can be at times, but he hasn't been able to maintain consistency.
He did end up with good counting stats, for a 25 year-old, by putting up 25 homers, 83 RBI, 78 runs, and 11 steals. His rate numbers weren't great, though, and he needs to get a better grasp of the strike zone (40 walks to 124 strikeouts). Also, he was caught stealing 10 times, which means his success rate on the basepaths was horrible.
The good news is Pence has flashed 30-20 ability, and has the potential to hit over .300 while doing so. He'll turn 26 a week into the season, and he's had over a year and a half of experience. The timing is right for that monster season -- though some websites will want you to wait a year for that allegedly magical age-27 season. Don't be that guy. Don't wait. Pence is ready to enter the upper echelon of fantasy outfielders.
The Bust
Miguel Tejada is virtually undraftable, to me. I know he won't be a very popular pick on draft day, but I'm saying he isn't worth picking at all in most leagues. Do you know how many home runs he hit in his last 86 games last season? Three. Seriously, three. In 86 games. He only knocked in 23, while hitting .274, during that stretch -- and he's playing in a hitter-friendly park. Obviously, opposing pitchers aren't too scared of him either, because he only drew 24 walks in 656 plate appearances for the whole season.
Consider, as well, that's he's going to be turning 35 years old this season. Through most years of his career, he never missed a game, so he's got some wear on that body. Plus, the steroid allegations cloud matters even further. Has he lost his game without the juice? We can't make that assumption, nor do we have to. He sucks now. Just plain sucks. Do not bother drafting him. [Note: I wrote this before his legal troubles came through. Needless to say, he's even less draftable now, but he may not be drafted so egregiously high.]
The Lineup
1. Kaz Matsui, 2B
2. Michael Bourn, CF
3. Lance Berkman, 1B
4. Carlos Lee, LF
5. Miguel Tejada, SS
6. Hunter Pence, RF
7. Geoff Blum, 3B
8. Humberto Quintero, C
J.R. Towles, Jason Michaels, and Aaron Boone also figure to be in the playing time mix. Really, your guess is as good as mine when it comes to figuring out the mess behind the plate, but neither guy should be drafted.
The Rotation
1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Mike Hampton
4. Brandon Backe
5. Brian Moehler
The Bullpen
CL - Jose Valverde
SU - LaTroy Hawkins
SU - Doug Brocail
The Skinny
Oswalt is a fantasy ace. He had a disastrous start to last season, but down the stretch he was nails. I'm not even sure you know how great he was. In his last 15 starts, he went 11-2 with a 2.17 ERA. He struck out 80, while walking only 20 in close to 100 innings. I don't know what was wrong with him early on, but that's over now. He'll be turning 32 late in the season (on my 31st birthday, incidentally), so he's far from done. By the way, do you know who else went 11-2 down the stretch in the NL Central? CC Sabathia.
You could also do much worse than Lee and Berkman. It's nice to look at a team and find three fantasy can't-miss guys. The Astros have those.
Some other notes:
• Wandy Rodriguez has continued to make progress as he's gained experience. His ERA was very solid last year, at 3.54 in 25 starts. His strikeout has risen close to one-per-inning, which is outstanding. He still gives up a lot of hits, but he's progressed enough to take your chances on him as a late-round starting pitcher.
• Bourn is going to get drafted in many leagues because of his legs. He swiped 41 bases last season, so he's worth carrying, but at what price? He's an atrocious hitter. He'll kill your batting average, and his OBP is straight laughable for a guy you'd love to bat leadoff. The Astros are going to be patient with him, because you can't teach his kind of speed. He's worth a late-round flier in nearly all leagues because of the steals, but you better have loaded up on other categories, because he's only help in one of them.
• Matsui is a better option if you are looking for cheap speed. He stole 20 in only 96 games last year, and he won't kill your average. He doesn't have any power, but at least he's a middle infielder.
All in all, this team is top-heavy. You have three studs, a potential stud, a run-of-the-mill closer, a possibly helpful starting pitcher, and a bunch of gambles.
