Fantasy Baseball Preview: The Reds

Fantasy baseball draft season is coming, so you best be prepared by delving through every major player on each team. Fantasy FanHouse is here to help with a quick once-over.

Meet the ...
Team who definitely won't be clogging up the bases. That joke never gets old, but, seriously, this is a team who has the potential to make some noise. Their lineup and rotation are both good, and there are several solid fantasy players here. If you want stars, though, keep on moving. There are lots of really good players here, just no great ones.

The Breakout
I definitely like Brandon Phillips and Aaron Harang to bounce back from their respective uncharacteristically bad 2008 seasons, but I'll dig a little deeper for the "breakout" here and go with Chris Dickerson. He had a very impressive stint with the Reds last season in just over 100 at-bats. He put together an OPS of over 1.000, hit six home runs and stole five bases.

Now, let's not go overboard here. He may not even win the full-time gig, and his minor league stats never showed this sort of power promise. In fact, he was never much more than an average hitter with base-stealing speed in the minors. He never hit more than 14 homers in a single season. This is why you'll see many pundits telling you to avoid Dickerson. I'm telling you that in deep NL-only leagues, he's got steal potential. At age 26, he's mature enough to make a smooth transition, minor league stats don't always translate to the bigs, and he gets to play home games in a homer-friendly park. He's potentially a 20-20 guy with full playing time. That's definitely worth a last-round flier in large leagues, no?

The Bust
If you just glance at Edinson Volquez's full-season stat line from 2008, you'll find tons to like. He struck out over 200 hitters, garnered 17 wins for a team that only won 74, and kept the ERA in the low 3's, despite playing half his games in the launching pad that is Great American Ballpark. If you look closer at his splits, though, he really tailed off toward the end of the season. In fact, his post-All-Star Break ERA (4.60) was more than double that of his pre-break mark (2.29).

You could write a lot of this off on his age -- he'll be 26 this season -- and throwing over 50 innings more than he ever had in previous seasons. Personally, though, I think the National League was just finally figuring him out. He didn't lose zip on any of his pitches, as the strikeout totals remained consistently large. He was just getting hit much harder.

Unless he makes the necessary adjustments heading into this season, he's going to seriously disappoint the Reds this year. I'm not willing to take that gamble with a mid-round draft pick. I advise you to let someone else do so in your league.

The Lineup
1. Willy Taveras, CF
2. Jerry Hairston, SS
3. Joey Votto, 1B
4. Brandon Phillips, 2B
5. Jay Bruce, RF
6. Edwin Encarnacion, 3B
7. Ramon Hernandez, C
8. Chris Dickerson, LF

Alex Gonzalez, Jeff Keppinger, Norris Hopper, and a possible late acquisition to play left field could all play a factor. I'm guessing Dusty Baker wants to break up Bruce and Votto -- both are lefties -- hence my slotting Phillips cleanup.

The Rotation
1. Edinson Volquez
2. Aaron Harang
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Micah Owings

The Bullpen
CL - Francisco Cordero
SU - David Weathers
SU - Arthur Rhodes
SU - Bill Bray
SU - Jared Burton

The Skinny
The most fascinating name on draft day will definitely be Jay Bruce. He's an intriguing case, for sure, after belting 21 home runs in only 108 major league games. He's still a young buck, as he'll be 22 come Opening Day. You'd like to see improvement when it comes to strikeouts (110 punchouts to only 105 hits), but he certainly has the talent to become a stud in '09. Personally, I think he's still a full season away from stardom, but he will still hit 30 bombs. What I'll find awfully hilarious is how Reds fans treat him if he throws up a line like: .250 average/35 home runs/180 strikeouts. They basically ran Adam Dunn out of town for better numbers than that. We'll see if the Dunn stigma continues.

• I'm never going to be sold on Arroyo as a fantasy-worthy player. He's just too inconsistent, and that's not acceptable in fantasyland.

• Both Cueto and Owings are worth a really late flier in deep NL-only leagues. They possess enough ability to help you, especially Cueto with his strikeouts, but can't be counted on for consistently good production.

• Taveras will get you steals, but I just don't think he's a good enough player to keep the job all season. If the Reds stay in the race, it's very conceivable to see them dealing for a power-hitting left fielder and moving Dickerson to center.

• I expect Votto to continue his growth, but we're never gonna see 40-homer power from him. At first base, that's what you need to stand out in the crowd. He's a good option, but you can do better.

• Cordero is going to be a solid option at closer, but ignore the rest of the bullpen.

Finally, another sleeper candidate -- in addition to Dickerson -- is Encarnacion. He's failed to bust through in a big way to this point, but he's only 26. He hit a career-high 26 home runs last season, and he's still growing in terms of plate discipline -- he walked 61 times last year, his previous career high was 41. Also, he's going to be slotted in a cozy RBI position in this lineup.

All in all, there are plenty of good options to be had. Most of the guys here, though, are gambles due to a variety of reasons. If you end up with a lot of Reds on your fantasy team, make them late-rounders. You'll be much happier that way.