Always Be Closing: Checking Fantasy Baseball Value of First-Time Closers

Due to trades and free agency, many teams will be simply promoting from within or using someone in the closer role who has never done so for an entire season before. We won't be covering Francisco Rodriguez, Kerry Wood, or Brian Fuentes here. No, instead, this is for the Jonathan Broxton types, who are embarking upon a new phase of their respective careers.

Let's do a heat check (scorching, hot, mild, cold, freezing) on each man who has never been his team's closer for a full season, but plans to do so in 2009.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers - Broxton got a bit of a chance to show us his skills as a closer last year, and it wasn't bad. He hit some rough patches, but overall we've seen the kind of sick stuff the 24 year-old can bring. He has a high strikeout rate, and the Dodgers will be playing in a dreadful division, so there is a lot to like here.
Heat Check: Hot

Carlos Marmol, Cubs - An awful stretch in the middle of the season -- June 2 to July 12 -- killed his numbers last year. In that stretch he appeared in 20 games and compiled a horrifying 7.71 ERA. He still managed to finish with a 2.68 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He struck out a whopping 114 batters in only 87 1/3 innings. Plus, it's not like his team won't be giving him any chances. I expect him to be an elite closer for years to come. He's a number one closer in all fantasy leagues.
Heat Check: Scorching

Brad Ziegler, A's - We got our sneak preview at Ziegler for almost two months. As closer, he converted 11 of 13 save chances with a 2.55 ERA in 20 appearances. The problems? Well, that 1.58 WHIP was a bit disconcerting, as were the lack of punch-outs (only 15 in 24 2/3 innings). I'm greedy, so I want my closers to give me an extra strikeout or two while recording the save. Also of note, his numbers were significantly worse once he took on closing duties. Let's hope that trend doesn't continue.
Heat Check: Mild

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks- Here's another guy who gave us a sneak peak, and his was nothing short of outstanding. Qualls took over as full-time closer in mid-September for the Diamondbacks. In a very small sample, he didn't allow a single run in 7 1/3 innings, converting all seven of his save chances. He's hovered just below a strikeout per inning for his last two seasons, and he continues to improve his peripherals -- with an oustanding 1.07 WHIP in '08. Finally, just as I said with Broxton, the NL West sucks.
Heat Check: Hot

Heath Bell, Padres- He gets the unenviable task of replacing Trevor Hoffman in San Diego, and he only has two career saves. We have no idea how he'll respond. We do know that he pitches in a great pitcher's park, and he was stellar in 2007 (2.02 ERA and 0.96 WHIP). He took a dip last year in nearly every category, including a big plunge in ERA (3.58). Finally, the Padres might end up being the worst team in baseball.
Heat Check: Freezing

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins - Lindstrom took over as the Marlins' closer in early September, and did quite the job in his one-month sample. In nine appearances he only got five save chances, but converted all of them. He didn't give up a single run during this stint. The drawback is he doesn't strikeout many (43 in 57 1/3 last season). Also, the Marlins don't look like they'll be overly competitve in the NL East -- of course, they have fooled us before.
Heat Check: Mild

Fernando Rodney, Tigers- He was the Tigers closer for nearly the last two months of the season, and it wasn't an Earth-shattering preview by any measure. He converted 12 of 16 saves in this stretch, but his walk rate was downright disturbing. He gave out 19 free passes in only 23 2/3 innings, helping to compile a frightening 1.73 WHIP. While it's true he's a big strikeout guy, do you really want a closer who gets himself in trouble? For the record, the Tigers still have time to acquire a different closer.
Heat Check: Cold

Aaron Heilman, Mariners - Seattle may change their mind, and end up putting Brandon Morrow at the back end of games. For now, though, they are going into the season with Morrow in the rotation. Heilman was effective out of the bullpen for the Mets for three years, until simply falling apart last season. A 5.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP don't translate well to closing games. Even if he can rebound to 2007 form, it's not likely the Mariners can present him with a ton of save opportunities.
Heat Check: Freezing

Chris Perez, Cardinals - The kid who turns 23 this year built a really strong -- albeit brief -- closing resume in the minors, so the Cardinals gave him a little test drive in the role last year. Between August 6 and September 7, he saved seven games in nine chances. His ERA was 2.19 and WHIP was below 1.00. Also, he struck out 16 batters in only 12 1/3 innings. He didn't save a game after that, though. There were some struggles overall, but he was only a 22 year-old rookie.
Heat Check: Mild

Joel Hanrahan, Nationals - In young Hanrahan's transition to the bullpen last season, he got off to a rocky start. He improved as the season went along, and was given closing duties when the Nats traded Jon Rauch to Arizona. He saved nine games in 12 chances in the final two months. One thing he does do is strike guys out. He punched out 93 in 84 1/3 innings for the season. On the other hand, his ERA and WHIP are a bit high, and the Nationals won't be winning many games.
Heat Check: Cold